Thursday 30 June 2011

"Bottom fishing" help oil prices after liquidation rebound

While some traders put the rebound until they called bottom-fishing, others said higher export the Germany numbers and positive figures payroll confidence boosted us on the health of the global economic recovery.

Brent crude bounces $4.41 to $113.54 per barrel late afternoon trade, as traders took the liquidation as an opportunity to buy after a fall 13pc in prices last week.


The rebound came as figures published at the United States suggest hedge funds and other traders have been hit by the collapse of last week.


The data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that traders had reduced net long positions on contracts, end of oil by 2 set the week to May 3 the value of the positions was just 5 FP7 off the record set in March.


"It's terrifying," Hamza Khan, an analyst with the Schork Pennsylvania group told Bloomberg. "I would hate to be on the wrong side of this trade." The CFTC data show people received a long and see crash quickly should scare some speculators who entered gross. »


While some traders put the rebound until they called bottom-fishing, others said higher export the Germany numbers and positive figures payroll confidence boosted us on the health of the global economic recovery.


JP Morgan predicts that crude Brent would continue amounted to $120. "While financial bushfires or perhaps a rapid resolution to the civil war Jamahiriya could radically alter the dynamics of the market, the balance of risks and principles yet fundamental points to a world of limited supply," said analysts at the Bank.


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333Pc site after the change of name is rare minerals but fresh controlled

The company, which has rare any mineral step or licences for mines, was a company called zest deficit music until eight days ago.

He did not reveal how it intends to acquire minerals that China has a quasi-monopoly. Neither disclosed countries where he seeks acquisitions with just 630,000 £ Silver Bank.

However, since it proposed November 12, change of name, its share price has more than quadrupled 0.35 percent it value at £ 3. 1 m 1.52 percent it value £ 13. 5 m.

The rise is likely to raise additional questions about the London Stock Exchange governance market AIM - three years on since Roel Campos, a Commissioner of the SEC describes the junior market as "like a casino.

It has been examined renewed since wild hand desire Petroleum Spurs earlier this month. A spokesman for AIM has refused to comment on whether regulatory team focuses on rare minerals

A broker said: "it is penny stock madness, a mentality of Flock, although I do not know what they are trying to cash on." This is just like a type of dotcom boom situation. »

At the height of the dotcom, string cash shells - companies with a quote from the stock market boom, but no real business - listed on AIM. The value is collapsed when the bubble burst, prompting the London Stock Exchange to modify its rules.

TD Waterhouse, retail sales, said that rare minerals broker is its most traded stocks yesterday with purchase orders more and fourth most sell orders. "It's the first time that I have never seen that it appears in the top ten," said a spokesman.

More than 143 m shares changed hands, in spite of no new information available to the public.

The company has announced recently was the price of 98 m for "directors, employees, consultants and advisers" sharing options at 0.5%, repayable in ten years.

Shares of the company also increased sharply in January, when he appointed David Lenigas, a veteran world stocks penny, as a non-executive. It is one of only two members of undisclosed and rare minerals was Director of 94 businesses including Solo Oil, Vatulouka Gold Mines and LonZim Board.

Last year, a study conducted by the Manchester Business School concluded AIM firms were likely to fail than those on other markets. However, they have more chance of survival if older, more large, had a superior free float and appointed Councillor trustworthy.

Rare minerals was unavailable for comment.


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2010 contract review: best and worst of investment of the year

L ' Oréal Group - place 87 7pc at £ 11.24

IMI - place 82 3pc 945 p

Petrofac - up 64 6pc to £ 15.87

Wolseley - place 64 1pc to £ 20.46

Antofagasta-62 5pc to £ 16.12 estrogen

Aggreko - place 59 4pc to £ 14.82

Worst performing actions:

Low resolution - low 32 1pc p 234.1

BP - down 22 percent 465.55 4pc

National Grid - low 9 4pc 553 %

Brands & Spencer - low 8 2pc 369 %

BAE Systems - low 8 2pc 330 p

HSBC - low 8 1pc p 651.1

Capita Group - down 3pc 7 percent 696.5

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - down 6pc to £ 12.40

Barclays - low 5 2pc 261.65 %

Next - lower 5 2pc at £ 19.75


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Buyers Guide for life insurance


This life insurance buying guide will help you to understand the General information, to give those you need attention if you are thinking about buying a life policy.

Must I buy life insurance?

Simple and straightforward answer: If your death will have enough for your family and they, not a financial burden to financially in the future carry on then you probably not life cover must buy. If there enough money in the Bank to cover your family living costs have probably not to a life policy you.

Examples include: without dependent persons/children or parents, a solid nest egg have single / savings aside (you would as a self-insured).

Types of life insurance:

Term insurance and permanent (life)

How much life insurance do I need?

How much you need insurance depends on your personal and family situation. Future factors to take into account:

Monthly income
Monthly expenses
Clothing
Education/College
Gas
Entertainment
Additional costs
Retirement for spouse

Need I know of life insurance policies as I if an insurance company is reputable/reliable?

Check you would like to purchase from Kagi, rating insurance services and you double check, that check before you buy insurance you the financial assessment of the company in the life. Look for the highest rating under the insurance companies, which consider.

How to save money on life insurance?

Don't forget to buy online life insurance quotes! Online deals is the best way to save money for a life policy. You can compare the various life insurance policies. It is the only way to go, and saves you a lot of time and a sum of money.

Can I buy a life policy when I have a serious illness?

Yes, it is possible to buy a policy, if you the company on a serious illness, but it is and the higher your risk your cost of insurance premiums much higher as well.

If my serious illness gets worse the insurance company cancel my policy or increase my premiums to?

If you a life cover policy already and your serious illness worse is the insurance company cannot cancel your life policy, nor can it increase your premiums.

If I'm still alive provides term insurance or whole life no benefit me?

With coverage of life it offers income protection ultimately for your love, which depend on you and peace of mind if God forbid anything you happen, thus (the breadwinner).

Must men/women buy my life insurance? Is your family of both depending on your income? If God forbid your spouse something happened would financially affect your family? There are things that your spouse is that you would care to someone when your spouse (visa applicant) is no longer with you to pay to?

Everyone's situation is unique, but you need to look at your current situation. Is your spouse income your current life situation important? Child care costs must be covered, if the spouse is not more to? How it maybe need this information so difficult to be discussed, but here the good thing is that after discussing these details, which all are much clearer and you both to know how to proceed.








Buying life insurance is a very sensitive issue, but it is necessary to protect your family financially from disasters. You see the importance which it does not.

Evan Povich is a representative of the BaseQuotes.com insurance comparisons site. BaseQuotes.com offers cheap insurance quotes from over 100 of the largest insurance companies life insurance offers quota / life insurance quotes, car insurance quotes, health insurance quotes, home owners insurance quotes and long term care insurance (LTC quotation marks).

Trying to cheap insurance online make available BaseQuotes.com offers. It is important to save money on your insurance, compare insurance quotes for what insurance a plans to purchase.



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Wednesday 29 June 2011

ECB prepares rate rise as global tide turns

 The ECB is the first of the big central banks to signal a rate rise to curb inflation, marking a major turning point in the global policy cycle. Photo: AFP

"We are in a posture of strong vigilance: an increase in interest rates at the next meeting is possible," said ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, following a meeting of the governing council. The code word "vigilance" sent the euro rocketing to almost $1.40 against the dollar.


The ECB is the first of the big central banks to signal a rate rise to curb inflation, marking a major turning point in the global policy cycle.


"This is a shock," said Silvio Peruzzo from RBS. "This raises risks for the eurozone periphery through all kinds of channels. Most mortgages in Spain are on floating rates."


Santiago Carbó from Granada University said the shift was "very worrying" for Spain. "It catches us at a bad time: we haven't finished cleaning up the financial system."


Mr Trichet said the ECB aims to stop inflation psychology gaining a foothold, though he played down fears of a "series" of rate rises. As a concession, the ECB once again extended its unlimited 3-month liquidity for "addicted" Irish, Greek, and Iberian banks.


The ECB is starkly at odds with the Federal Reserve on the impact of surging oil and food prices. Fed chair Ben Bernanke said this week that inflation spill-over is likely to be "temporary and relatively modest". The Fed view is that commodity shocks drain demand in the wider economy, acting as a deflationary tax.


The ECB's task is hugely complicated by the widening North-South split and incipient wage inflation in Germany. Jörg Krämer from Commerzbank said the ECB's 1pc rate is "far too low" for booming Germany".


Dr Krämer thinks that the ECB is tilting monetary policy to help Club Med and Ireland, a view widely held in Germany and reinforced by the resignation of Bundesbank chief Axel Weber following his refusal to back ECB rescue policies.


German loss of control over EMU's monetary machinery is a neuralgic issue, threatening a unwritten contract with the German people that the euro would be as hard as the old D-Mark. Hawkish moves by the ECB at this stage may be intended to keep German opinion on board and head off an EMU political crisis.


Yet the eurozone recovery remains fragile. The M3 money supply has been contracting for two months; fiscal policy is tightening across much of EMU; and there is no deal yet on the EU bail-out fund.


Albert Edwards from Societe Generale said the ECB is repeating the error of July 2008 when it met the oil spike with a rate rise, even though the eurozone economy was too weak to cope. "China's leading indicators are already tipping over, which will have a big impact on German exports. All we need now to push the world back into the recession is an ECB rate rise."


Mr Edwards said Club Med will face a double blow from credit tightening and a stronger euro. "They are going to pull the rug away from under the feet of the eurozone. Do they want it to break apart?"


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Egypt and Tunisia usher in the new era of global food revolutions

It does not take a febrile imagination to guess what the Brotherhood’s ascendancy might mean for Israel, and for strategic stability in the Mid-East. Asia has as much to lose if this goes wrong as the West. China’s energy intensity per unit of GDP is double US levels, and triple the UK.

The surge in global food prices since the summer – since Ben Bernanke signalled a fresh dollar blitz, as it happens – is not the underlying cause of Arab revolt, any more than bad harvests in 1788 were the cause of the French Revolution.

Yet they are the trigger, and have set off a vicious circle. Vulnerable governments are scrambling to lock up world supplies of grain while they can. Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat last week, and Indonesia has ordered 800,000 tonnes of rice, both greatly exceeding their normal pace of purchases. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Bangladesh, are trying to secure extra grain supplies.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its global food index has surpassed the all-time high of 2008, both in nominal and real terms. The cereals index has risen 39pc in the last year, the oil and fats index 55pc.

The FAO implored goverments to avoid panic responses that “aggravate the situation”. If you are Hosni Mubarak hanging on in Cairo’s presidential palace, do care about such niceties?

France’s Nicolas Sarkozy blames the commodity spike on hedge funds, speculators, and the derivatives market (largely in London). He vowed to use his G20 presidency to smash the racket, but then Mr Sarkozy has a penchant for witchhunts against easy targets.

The European Commission has been hunting for proof to support his claims, without success. Its draft report – to be released last Wednesday, but withdrawn under pressure from Paris – reached exactly the same conclusion as investigators from the IMF, and US and British regulators.

“There is little evidence that the price formation process on commodity markets has changed in recent years with the growing importance of derivatives markets”, it said.

As Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs tirelessly points out, future contracts are neutral. For every trader making money by going long on wheat, sugar, pork bellies, zinc, or crude oil, there is a trader losing money on the other side. It is a paper transfer between financial players.

You have to buy and hoard the vast amounts of these bulk commodities to have much impact on the price, which is costly and difficult to do, though people do park crude on floating tankers sometimes, and Chinese firms allegedly stashed copper in warehouses last year.

But that is not what commodity index funds with $150bn are actually doing with food, base metals, and energy. Only governments have strategic petroleum and grain reserves big enough to make a difference.

The immediate cause of this food spike was the worst drought in Russia and the Black Sea region for 130 years, lasting long enough to damage winter planting as well as the summer harvest. Russia imposed an export ban on grains. This was compounded by late rains in Canada, Nina disruptions in Argentina, and a series of acreage downgrades in the US. The world’s stocks-to-use ratio for corn is nearing a 30-year low of 12.8pc, according to Rabobank.

The deeper causes are well-known: an annual rise in global population by 73m; the “exhaustion” of the Green Revolution as the gains in crop yields fade, to cite the World Bank; diet shifts in Asia as the rising middle class switch to animal-protein diets, requiring 3-5 kilos of grain feed for every kilo of meat produced; the biofuel mandates that have diverted a third of the US corn crop into ethanol for cars.

Add the loss of farmland to Asia’s urban sprawl, and the depletion of the non-renewable acquivers for irrigation of North China’s plains, and the geopolitics of global food supply starts to look neuralgic.

Can the world head off mass famine? Yes, with leadership. The regions of the ex-Soviet Union farm 30m hectares less today than in the Khrushchev era, and yields are half western levels.

There are tapped hinterlands in Brazil, and in Africa where land titles and access to credit could unleash a great leap forward. The global reservoir of unforested cropland is 445m hectares, compared to 1.5 billion in production. But the low-lying fruit has already gone, and the vast investment needed will not come soon enough to avoid a menacing shift in the terms of trade between the land and the urban poor.

We are on a thinner margin of food security, as North Africa is discovering painfully, and China understands all too well. Perhaps it is a little too early to write off farm-rich Europe and America.


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Einstein was right - honey bee collapse threatens global food security

The agri-business lender Rabobank said the numbers of US bee colonies failing to survive each winter has risen to 30pc to 35pc from an historical norm of 10pc. The rate is 20pc or higher in much of Europe, and the same pattern is emerging in Latin America and Asia.

Albert Einstein, who liked to make bold claims (often wrong), famously said that "if the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, man would have only four years to live".

Such "apocalyptic scenarios" are overblown, said Rabobank. The staples of corn, wheat, and rice are all pollinated by wind.

However, animal pollination is essential for nuts, melons and berries, and plays varying roles in citrus fruits, apples, onions, broccoli, cabbage, sprouts, courgettes, peppers, aubergines, avocados, cucumbers, coconuts, tomatoes and broad beans, as well as coffee and cocoa.

This is the fastest growing and most valuable part of the global farm economy. Between 80pc and 90pc of pollination comes from domesticated honey bees. Moths and butterflies lack the range to penetrate large fields.

The reservoir of bees is dwindling to the point where ratios are dangerously out of kilter, with the US reaching the "most extreme" imbalance. Pollinated crop output has quadrupled since 1961, yet bee colonies have halved. The bee-per-hectare count has fallen nearly 90pc.

"Farmers have managed to produce with relatively fewer bee colonies up to this point, and there is no evidence of agricultural yields being affected. The question is how much further this situation can be stretched," said the report.

Rabobank said US bee colonies were shrinking even before CCD struck because cheap imports of Asian honey had undercut US hives. Note the parallel with the demise of the US rare earth metals industry, put out of business when China flooded the world with cheaper supplies in the 1990s. This is what happens when free trade is managed carelessly.

China has its own problems. Pesticides used in pear orchards wiped out bees in parts of Sichuan in the 1980s. Crops are now pollinated by hand using feather brushes, a laborious process as one bee colony can pollinate up to 300m flowers a day.

Germany, France and Italy have banned some pesticides, especially neonicotinoids (as in tobacco) that harm the memories of bees.

The British Beekeepers' Association has called for an "urgent review" of these chemicals, fearing we may lose all our bees within a decade if we are not careful. US beekeepers have made similar pleas. The US agriculture department's Bee Research Laboratory has found evidence that even low levels of these pesticides reduce the resistance of bees to fungal pathogens.

Leaked documents from the Environmental Protection Agency confirm that clothianidin used on corn seed is "highly toxic", may pose a "long-term risk" to bees, and that previous tests were flawed.

Critics alleged a cover-up: Rabobank said we should be careful not to vilify agro-industry. The world needs food and fertilizer companies to keep finding ways to raise crop yields, if we are to feed over 70m extra mouths each year, and meet the demands of Asia's diet revolution, offset water scarcity in China and India, and divert a great chunk of the US, Argentine, and EU grain harvest into bio-fuels for cars.

With pincers closing in on world food output from so many sides, we have little margin for error. Scientists are coming to the rescue. Research is honing in on the fungus Nosema, and the Varroa mite, but not fast enough.

Rabobank calls for a step-change in the global response, and in the meantime for tougher rules, so that beekeepers do not have to fight alone, starting with curbs on pesticide use during in daylight hours when bees are foraging.

Apian atrophy is a more immediate threat than global warming, and can be solved, yet has barely risen onto the policy radar screen. This is surely a misjudgment.

Einstein was not always wrong.


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ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's rate retreat on commodity spike

 Jean-Claude Trichet said the jump in eurozone inflation to 2.4pc is a 'short-term' effect of rising energy and commodity costs Photo: Reuters

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, set off sharp moves in currency and credit markets on Thursday as he sought to play down expectations of rate rises over coming months.


Mr Trichet said the jump in eurozone inflation to 2.4pc is a "short-term" effect of rising energy and commodity costs. "Our monetary analysis indicates that inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored At the same time, very close monitoring is warranted," he said. The ECB held rates at 1pc.


The euro tumbled almost two cents to $1.362 against the dollar, giving up a quarter of the gains it has made since Mr Trichet set off tremors last month with a red-hot inflation alert. Yields on the benchmark German Schatz or two-year bond plummeted 14 points to 1.34pc.


David Owen from Jefferies Fixed Income said Mr Trichet had carried out a deft pirouette. "Markets had priced in two rates this year after his comments in January, so he is now trying to put those expectations back in the box," he said.


Mr Owen said the ECB had learned a hard lesson when it over-reacted to the oil spike in the summer of 2008 by raising rates, even though Germany and Italy were already in recession by then and the global credit system was already starting to crumble.


"That was a major policy mistake. This time they are making the right judgment because there is no sign of credit growth in the eurozone, and the M2 money supply has started to contract again. The ECB must also be worried about the scale of deposit outflows from the Irish banking system," he said.


The ECB decision to "look through" the commodity spike brings the bank closer into line with the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, which has kept its focus on core inflation measures that strip out food and energy.


Yet is a risky move at a time when a powerful new cycle of global growth may be under way and the whole nexus of commodities is on fire. March contracts for Brent crude oil jumped to a two-year high of $103 a barrel on Thursday, while copper broke through $10,000 a tonne and cotton reached the highest price since the US Confederacy halted exports during the Civil War in the 1860s.


The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its index of global food prices had hit a fresh record in January, while Goldman Sachs's farm index has risen 90pc since June.


Abdolreza Abbassian, the FAO's grain expert, said there is no sign yet that the "upward pressure" on world food prices is abating. "These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come," he said.


The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt leave no doubt that the food shock has become a threat to social stability in much of the Middle East and possibly Asia. Food prices make up 50pc of the inflation index in the Philippines, and 37pc in China. It is less clear what the commodity shock means for the richer Atlantic world.


The current situation is unprecedented since excess global liquidity is flowing to the overheating economies of China, India, Brazil and the emerging powers, while parts of the West remain stuck in a "liquidity trap" with sluggish growth.


It is hard for Western central banks to calibrate policy in this new world order since their economies are no longer the driving force in commodity markets, unlike the 1970s when it was their own excess stimulus that set off the commodity spiral.


Rising resource prices in today's radically changed circumstances act as a tithe on US and European consumers and industry that must be paid to Mid-East petro-powers or Russian metal barons. This can have a deflationary impact, implying that moves to counter the effect by raising rates would make matters worse.


Germany's booming export sector has helped revive the eurozone over recent months but the Bundesbank forecasts a sharp slowdown in German growth this year, while the IMF expects fiscal tightening to delay recovery in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland until 2012.


Eurozone retail sales have fallen for two months in a row, dropping 0.6pc in December. "Risks to the economic outlook are still slightly tilted to the downside," said Mr Trichet.


Veteran ECB watchers cautioned against reading too much into Mr Trichet's apparent retreat on inflation. Ken Wattret from BNP Paribas said there was a coded warning in the ECB's statement about upward pressure on prices in the "earlier stages of the production process", a precursor to inflation.


The German-led hawks at the ECB have not capitulated yet.


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ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's rate retreat on commodity spike

 Jean-Claude Trichet said the jump in eurozone inflation to 2.4pc is a 'short-term' effect of rising energy and commodity costs Photo: Reuters

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, set off sharp moves in currency and credit markets on Thursday as he sought to play down expectations of rate rises over coming months.


Mr Trichet said the jump in eurozone inflation to 2.4pc is a "short-term" effect of rising energy and commodity costs. "Our monetary analysis indicates that inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored At the same time, very close monitoring is warranted," he said. The ECB held rates at 1pc.


The euro tumbled almost two cents to $1.362 against the dollar, giving up a quarter of the gains it has made since Mr Trichet set off tremors last month with a red-hot inflation alert. Yields on the benchmark German Schatz or two-year bond plummeted 14 points to 1.34pc.


David Owen from Jefferies Fixed Income said Mr Trichet had carried out a deft pirouette. "Markets had priced in two rates this year after his comments in January, so he is now trying to put those expectations back in the box," he said.


Mr Owen said the ECB had learned a hard lesson when it over-reacted to the oil spike in the summer of 2008 by raising rates, even though Germany and Italy were already in recession by then and the global credit system was already starting to crumble.


"That was a major policy mistake. This time they are making the right judgment because there is no sign of credit growth in the eurozone, and the M2 money supply has started to contract again. The ECB must also be worried about the scale of deposit outflows from the Irish banking system," he said.


The ECB decision to "look through" the commodity spike brings the bank closer into line with the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, which has kept its focus on core inflation measures that strip out food and energy.


Yet is a risky move at a time when a powerful new cycle of global growth may be under way and the whole nexus of commodities is on fire. March contracts for Brent crude oil jumped to a two-year high of $103 a barrel on Thursday, while copper broke through $10,000 a tonne and cotton reached the highest price since the US Confederacy halted exports during the Civil War in the 1860s.


The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its index of global food prices had hit a fresh record in January, while Goldman Sachs's farm index has risen 90pc since June.


Abdolreza Abbassian, the FAO's grain expert, said there is no sign yet that the "upward pressure" on world food prices is abating. "These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come," he said.


The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt leave no doubt that the food shock has become a threat to social stability in much of the Middle East and possibly Asia. Food prices make up 50pc of the inflation index in the Philippines, and 37pc in China. It is less clear what the commodity shock means for the richer Atlantic world.


The current situation is unprecedented since excess global liquidity is flowing to the overheating economies of China, India, Brazil and the emerging powers, while parts of the West remain stuck in a "liquidity trap" with sluggish growth.


It is hard for Western central banks to calibrate policy in this new world order since their economies are no longer the driving force in commodity markets, unlike the 1970s when it was their own excess stimulus that set off the commodity spiral.


Rising resource prices in today's radically changed circumstances act as a tithe on US and European consumers and industry that must be paid to Mid-East petro-powers or Russian metal barons. This can have a deflationary impact, implying that moves to counter the effect by raising rates would make matters worse.


Germany's booming export sector has helped revive the eurozone over recent months but the Bundesbank forecasts a sharp slowdown in German growth this year, while the IMF expects fiscal tightening to delay recovery in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland until 2012.


Eurozone retail sales have fallen for two months in a row, dropping 0.6pc in December. "Risks to the economic outlook are still slightly tilted to the downside," said Mr Trichet.


Veteran ECB watchers cautioned against reading too much into Mr Trichet's apparent retreat on inflation. Ken Wattret from BNP Paribas said there was a coded warning in the ECB's statement about upward pressure on prices in the "earlier stages of the production process", a precursor to inflation.


The German-led hawks at the ECB have not capitulated yet.


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Tuesday 28 June 2011

The battle for NYSE becomes political

NASDAQ, which houses like corporate America Google greater technology, and the ice, the owner trade term for products $42.5 per share for the NYSE last Friday.

The comment by Michel Barnier, Commissioner of the European Union for markets, between days after Nasdaq OMX and InterContinental Exchange (ICE) joined forces to win on a bid for NYSE Euronext, owner of older Scholarship America, existing of Deutsche Boerse the Germany.


"We want financial centres of Europe to be strong, with a global dimension and to play their role," said Mr Barnier, a former French Minister of Foreign Affairs.


NASDAQ, which houses like corporate America Google greater technology, and the ice, the owner trade term for products $42.5 per share for the NYSE last Friday. Deutsche Boerse had offered $ 35 per share in February. NYSE said that considering the submission of the Nasdaq and the ice, Deutsche Boerse knows wait to see this response before deciding to raise its offer.


The agreement is later in a swirl of bids and counter-bids in the industry of the Exchange as a mixture of financial pressures and globalization requires the industry to consolidate.


Bob Greifeld, leader since a long time the Nasdaq, said last week that the Nasdaq bid will bring more benefits to the American economy and also save state of New York as a financial centre.


Submission of Deutsche Boerse caused little political protest to the United States when it has, but analysts have suggested that the emergence of a rival offer domestic can change that.


Shares of NYSE Euronext closed 0 62pc to $38.98.


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The Japan earthquake: firms affected by the disaster

Catlin group

Share price since the earthquake 9 21pc

Insurancesector

Reason The likely impact of the Japanese earthquake at the top of the loss of 125 m $, the insurer is expected to be taken by the New Zealand earthquake last month made Catlin of the biggest fallers.

Burberry Group

Share price since the earthquake 9 2pc

Sector Luxury products

Reason The company was affected by concerns that demand for luxury products is likely to fall following the earthquake in the Japan.

Beazley

Share price since the earthquake 8 81pc

Sector Insurance

Reason Yet to make a statement on the impact of the disaster in Japanese, the price of the shares was overthrown by General fears of the market of the effect it will have on the earnings of the insurer.

AMEC

Share price since the earthquake 7 97pc

Sector Energy

Reason Explosions at a Japanese nuclear facility have led to fears that it may disrupt the plan of the United Kingdom for the construction of 11 new nuclear power plants, Amec project was supposed to advise on.

Chaucer

Share price since the earthquake 7 36pc

Sector Insurance

Reason Specialist insurance for nuclear power plants, the company does not provide commercial interruption coverage the Japan, but he said that it is too early to estimate losses.

InterContinental Hotels Group

Share price since the earthquake 7 34pc

Sector Hotels

Reason ANA Holiday Inn company, Sendai was closed to new reservations, while its nearest property of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power is always deemed to be safe. IHG said that he maintained a watch on the situation "close" to Fukushima.

BP

Share price since the earthquake 6 97pc

Sector Energy

Reason The earthquake led to a fall in the price of oil, which has added to the pressure on the prices of the shares of the company.

Aviva

Share price since the earthquake 6 77pc

Sector Insurance

Reason The price of the shares was struck by the fear of general market on the exposure of insurers tens of billions of pounds of claims should result in the earthquake.

GKN

Share price since the earthquake 5 62pc

Sector Industrial

Reason The car parts manufacturer and the aircraft has said that it will have to reduce production as some Japanese customers will be unable to take delivery of its products. GKN FP7 sales come from the Japan, and Mitsubishi and Nissan are among its biggest customers.

IMI

Share price since the earthquake 4 14pc

Sector Industrial

Reason As a provider of safety valves for the industry of energy, including nuclear power plants, the potential collapse of three of the nuclear facilities of the Japan has led to concerns the impact on the IMI market.

ARM Holdings

Share price since the earthquake 2 5pc

Sector Technology

Reason Japan represents about 20pc of overall semiconductor production and the concerns of the potential disruption of supplies and its impact on the income of royalty for the arms, which designs chips used in most of the smart phones of the worldhas led to a fall in its shares.

Berkeley resources

Share price since the earthquake 37 63pc

Sector Energy

Reason Shares of the minor of uranium have seen the most spectacular fall of any society, as the market weighed up to the likely impact of a comprehensive reassessment of the industry of nuclear energy following the nuclear disaster potential unfolding in three Japanese nuclear plants following the tsunami.

And the risers…

Aggreko

Share price since the earthquake 7 55pc

Sector Electricity production

Reason As one of the world's leading providers of mobile power generation, Aggreko should find strong demand for its services as Japanese authorities began to clarify the areas devastated by the tsunami.

BG Group

Share price since the earthquake 4 02pc

Sector Energy

Reason Days before the earthquake struck in the Japan, BG has signed an agreement with Tokyo to provide liquid natural gas for the next 20 years. With the nuclear crisis, the potential for alternative energy sources to the Japan is supposed to be growing.


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Tate & Lyle softens but market poisons

"Sucralose has caused much debate on the case of Tate investment over the years." For us, Sucralose is just another very successful product and value-added industry growing fast food ingredients, said the broker. "All contributing therefore to propel the growth of Sucralose is therefore good."

Ascent of Tate aside, the broader market is strained stock commercial ex-dividende dragged the index. Vodafone, National Grid, and Marks & Spencer were among those trade without their final payments shareholder rights. Sentiment was also marred by low UK manufacturing and data, who kept the almost flat commercial reference index to the course of the morning of the housing.

Later in the day, disappointing growth of the United States private sector employment figures sent traders already nervous quickly for the output and the FTSE 100 dragged points 61.38 at 5928.61, while the FTSE 250 dropped 50.95 points to 12009.84.

With traders lose their appetite for risk, banks were on the decline. Lloyds banking Group was more marked faller of the sector, excretion 1.99 to 50.01 p. weighing on the lender was a note from Morgan Stanley, arguing that by the end of 2012, UK House prices fall 10pc below levels seen in the last quarter of 2010.

Who - with the weak housing figures - does not improve the housebuilders with Redrow fell 7.4 p 122.9 and Barratt developments soaking p 2 to 111.4.

Analysts noted that the fall in house prices would affect banks, including higher as values fall of collateral loan losses and the subdued growth of mortgage loans.

They believed Lloyds was the most exposed and thus expect 2012 profit to be lower than the consensus 21pc.

Elsewhere in the area of property, Morgan Stanley was still optimistic about the real estate companies such as british land and Derwent London, saying that shortages in the medium term in the offices of London should lead the higher rents.

Analysts upgraded Hammerson of "equal weight" to "overweight", arguing that she had a "first portfolio" with quality France and the United Kingdom detail and a portfolio of high quality London Office. Established Hammerson on 6.8 to 486.3 p, although that British Land eased 4½ to 593 p and Derwent edged up to 1 p to £ 18,32.

Return on the highest level, G4S support services company leads the charge. It contributes up to 5.1 to 291 p was optimistic note of Espirito Santo, from coverage with a "buy" rating Analysts have argued that growth G4S recovery was not yet sufficiently integrated business assessment.

"Emerging economy activity now represents one-third of the benefit of the group game G4S and looks to continue to grow at a double-digit rate," said the broker. "Expect us this pattern of growth more supported by recovery in developed markets of G4S, with improved conditions in the sector private and favourable structural public sector pilot now materialized."

Ticks too was Burberry, rising 7% at £ 13.26, as investors continued to buy in the exhibition of the fashion house at expense of large customers in emerging markets. Numis analysts were optimistic about the prospects for the Burberry, highlighting a move to expand its presence in the retail. The broker retained its rating "add" and its target price to £ 15.00 plus financial.

Defensive were perhaps no surprise, with officials of the drug in demand Shire and AstraZeneca on 10 p to £ 19.27 and 7½p to £ 31.85 respectively. Thrown of the latter, was the decision of the Canada to approve his new heart drug Brilinta.

Among minors, Fresnillo lined up to 20 p to £ 14.78 and Rio tinto reached 10 p £ 42.55 on an optimistic note of Citigroup. Analysts added the company to their "most favored mining companies and UK metals", saying: he had never "considered cheaper."

On the second level, az electronic Materials took the tumble size. The chemical company of specialty hangar 26.1 to 312 p as its hedge funders, Vestar Capital Partners and Carlyle Group, sold the shares of 80 m. pair reduce their issues after the end of a period of lock-in on the registration of AZ in October 2010.

Lower market, XChanging jumped 8 to 95 p as it sold its operation of workers' compensation Cambridge disorder at United States for $22. 7 m (£ 13 8 m). The sale of the unit, which provides management for the treatment of claims and medical services, comes after the Outsourcer said in March, it would review its business and reduce costs by up to 20 m £.

Among stocks of purpose, Ceres Power jumped 10 to 34 percent after the alternative energy society said that he had found a solution to a problem with its boiler fuel, which aims to generate heating and hot water.

During this time, camco International reached 1.63 p 20.13 as of institutional buyers piled in suite at a Roadshow. Clean energy society was supported by a recent announcement that she began to work on an American plant energy produced methane from cow dung.


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The week ahead - June 13, 2011: results, meetings and business updates

New guardian of the United Kingdom risk was somewhat found taken by surprise after Alastair Clark, a veteran of the Bank chosen by the Chancellor to be one of the four external members of the CPF, was declared "absolute" and "contradiction" by MEPs on the Committee of the Treasury.

There are already concerns that the TDC makes the Bank too powerful he becomes the top regulator of the page under the new system of George Osborne.

As with the monetary policy Committee Bank pricing, we find steps on what was going on until after the event, with the Bank publishes the minutes of the FPC on 24 June.

The overall rate of inflation, measured on the consumer price index (CPI), this week remain in 4 5pc and the rate of unemployment to 7 FP7. However, the two should climb higher in coming months.

Majestic wine, the retailer has a policy of "minimum of six bottles", is supposed to report fiscal year pre-tax profits of £ 19. 4 m, £ 16 m mounted last year.

The group, which has benefited from its niche position a wine dealer, is also forecast to set out a target to double to store numbers.

Results of the year

Latchways, majestic wine

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

No announcement

Economy

Quarterly Bulletin of the Bank of England, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet give the floor to the London School of Economics

Meetings

DODS (AGM), Silence Therapeutics (AGM), Mission Marketing (AGM)

Glencore publishes its first quarterly update as a public company, after an early mastered its inclusion.

The shares have traded below IPO price since flotation, as the markets remain weak. Some analysts say the company is poorly understood and it is "able to generate profits through the chain of value of the products," benefiting from the rise in prices, growth of trade and increased volatility.

This update, which is hot on the heals of S & P upgrade Glencore credit rating last week, should give investors more insight.

Results of the year

CML Microsystems, Carphone Warehouse, Oxford Instruments,
Park Group

Interim results

ATH resources, Idox, Interbulk, dynamic continuation

Bargaining update

Air partner, Petrofac, Tesco, Glencore

Economy

Inflation figures monthly UK, Department for communities and Local Government House price index

Meetings

Oil companies smaller BlackRock Trust (AGM), Fortune (AGM), Ted Baker (AGM), power of Turbo (AGA) systems

Results of the year

Liontrust asset management

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

Group game, Mouchel, J Sainsbury

Economy

The UK Chancellor annual book monthly unemployment figures speech Mansion House, Governor of the Bank of England also speak

Meetings

Asia Digital Holdings (AGM), Bank of Ireland (AGM), Faroe Petroluem (AGM), game (AGM) group, Graphite Enterprise Trust (AGM), Sopheon (AGM), Vernalis (AGA)

• Mulberry, the retailer of luxury whose actions have exploded over the past months, is expected to report fiscal year pre-tax profits of £ 21. 5 m, an increase of £ 5. 1 m last year.

• Electronics Premier Farnell group should benefit from the global manufacturing recovery when it publishes the results of the first quarter.

The company that sells articles ranging from batteries to chips to companies such as Microsoft, forecast to increase their income by 5MC in throughout the year to January 31, 2012.

During the last quarter of its last financial year, Premier Farnell has experienced its best three months for 10 years. The company also attempted to calm concerns about the impact of the Japanese earthquake on his business, claiming that its exposure to the country is "very weak". The premier Farnell will also present Valerie Gooding, former Executive Director of Bupa, new President at its annual general meeting.

• WS Atkins, the design and engineering group, reports results for the year.

Earlier this year, the shares of the company, which worked on the Tower Burj Al Arab, Dubai rallied after it said a pick-up in the Middle East of profits in the year to March 31 must beat expectations. In this spirit, analysts expect the company to profit before tax of approximately 96 m report £ on revenues of £ 1. 56bn, according to watch digital.

Atkins makes 10pc of its net sales in the Middle East, with 30pc of the United States and over 50pc in the United Kingdom.

Results of the year

WS Atkins, Consort medical, Mulberry, polar Capital Trust technology, Cfseu

Interim results

CareTech

Bargaining update

Ashtead, Premier Farnell, investment of real estate credit

Economy

Details of the sales figures, the confidence index of consumers across the country, meeting of Committee of the interim financial policy Bank of England for the first time

Meetings

The software link International (AGM), Highland Gold Mines (AGM), Kingfisher (AGM), Corin Group (AGM)

Results of the year

No announcement

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

No announcement

Economy

No announcement

Meetings

Tarsus (AGM), Uniq (AGM)


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Monday 27 June 2011

The hunger of fast market returns is hurt UK

Mental clouding judgment? Short term is becoming so well that some have it marks "quarterly capitalism." Photo: PA

Andrew Haldane, Executive Director of the Bank of England financial stability, argued in a speech in Brussels Monday that markets are failing because they undervalue benefits to long-term rewards faster but less. Providing a welter of evidence, he added that the trend towards the "short term" gathered pace during the past decade.


"It is a market failure", Mr. Haldane said, arguing that it discredits in addition "the efficient market hypothesis". Investors are wrong decisions because they are more attracted by returns faster than the real value of a project, hungry worthy of investment in long-term funds.


"[Long term projects developed pricing] would tend to lead to investment being too weak and... suffering disproportionately", he said. "".This could include projects with the build high or sunk costs, including infrastructure and high technology investment.


"These projects are often felt to give the best yields long-term (private and social) and therefore offer the greatest coup de pouce future growth." Making short term a matter of public policy. »


Short term is becoming so well that some have it marks "quarterly capitalism." Responsible companies are upgrading investments as without value in half the time that suggests "rational" analysis is correct, according to research by Mr. Haldane and his colleague Richard Davies.


"If promised returns tomorrow fail to induce savings today, there is no investment tomorrow." "If so, the well-being and long term growth would be the victim."


Makers should consider to intervene to encourage more emphasis on long-term objectives. He proposed to link pay more closely to performance in the long term, expanding the fiduciary duties of Directors to include long-term objectives, rights grant and vote for investors in the long term by improving and introducing tax measures ".


"It might be time to increase the level of political ambition." "Without intervention, the long could again become shorter", said Mr. Haldane.


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The Greek debt crisis: billion will be more pumped to bring relief to the Greece

The IMF said it was "ready to continue to support" for the country, providing that the Government has introduced far-reaching economic reforms. He threatened not to support the Greece, which was to be paid next month, but it is now thought unlikely.

A new package to bail out, the second in 13 months, should be accepted in the next few weeks.

The economic official of the European Union, an Olli Rehn, stated that wait for the EU and the IMF to release a loan of EUR 12 billion in early July to keep solvent Greece.

The Greece has been warned last night that it must introduce austerity cuts and not by default on repayments on its loan of emergency to bail out the as a condition of the new deal.

Fears that the Greece was failing to repay its debts has shaken financial markets yesterday.

At one point, the value of the FTSE 100 had decreased by 1.5 percentage points.

But after the IMF statement, shares began to recover. By the close of trading the FTSE had fallen by 0.76 percentage points to 5,699, a loss of over $ 10 billion to £. The euro fell against other currencies.

Yesterday evening, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, announced a cabinet reshuffle and said that he would be for a vote of confidence that he seeks to force by reducing expenditures and tax rises against widespread opposition.

An attempt to form a Government of national unity failed. The country has been marred by strikes and riots this week while several politicians have resigned in protest against the proposed austerity drive.

The Greece credit rating was cut to the lowest in the world and its debts is now considered less secure than those in poor developing countries. There were fears that, if the Greece by default on debt repayments, other countries such as the Ireland could be tempted to follow suit, leading to another financial crisis.

Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Union, said yesterday evening that the euro would emerge stronger from the crisis.

Mr Rehn admitted that it would take more time to implement a second rescue plan for the Greece because of differences on how to

private investors share the burden.


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The week ahead - June 20, 2011: economy, results, meetings and updates

Aggrekotemporary power provider, will take stock of the trade. In April, the company - whose generators to meet gaps in the electricity and major events like the Olympic Games of power - said revenues in the three months at the end of March had grown 9pc.

Results of the year: F. c. & overall more small businesses

Interim results: No announcement

Trading Update: Aggreko

Economics: Finance Ministers of the euro area discuss Greek second rescue the day they have set the deadline for an agreement, Director General John Lipsky acting IMF announces the IMF's view on the economy of the euro, the monthly price index House Rightmove.

Maycrude CML mortgage data

Meetings: Group of surgical Innovations (AGM)

TUESDAY

Whitbread, the owner of Costa coffee and Premier Inn hotels is due to hold its annual general meeting and report on the trade in the three months since the new fiscal year began in March.

Shares in the company of recreation has been a success in April when the Whitbread said sales growth had slowed down this year due to the reduction of consumer spending for his comments on current trade will be highly regarded.

However Whitbread said that it is in a good position as a person to save money, because of the value offered by its budget hotels.

The FTSE 100 a company also unveiled plans to double the number of cafés Costa to 3 500 and increase the number of rooms in the hostel of Prime Minister by 50pc 65 000 over the next five years.

Results of the year: Creston, first group properties, Halma

Interim results: Domino printing Sciences

Trading Update: Whitbread

Economics: Public finance UK, additional data of the Office for Budget responsibility, monthly CBI industrial trends

Meetings: Borders and Southern Petroleum (AGM), Whitbread (AGM)

WEDNESDAY

Kesa, Comet electricals chain owner, will announce the results for the year to 30 April. Analysts expect the string, which passes through a restructuring, to report adjusted earnings before taxes of 91 million euros (£ 79 8 m).

Analysts are expecting an overall positive results of the manufacturer of the chip Imagination Technologies, in accordance with the previous forecast it will comfortably exceed its target throughout the year for the transport of chips of 200 m. Morgan Stanley analysts said income from licence to people as Apple were likely to be "surprising upside down", but added that the price of the shares of Imagination was so high that he would recommend not a purchase based purely on these results.

Results of the year: Imagination Technologies, Kesa Electricals, Sepura

Interim results: No announcement

Trading Update: No announcement

Economics: Minutes of the June meeting of Bank of England monetary policy of the Committee, report of agents of the Bank on the conditions of the company in June, US Federal Reserve's monthly interest rates announced

Meetings: Anglo Oriental Plantations (AGM), Braemar shipping Services (AGM), Eastern European Trust (AGM), catalysts of the Oxford Group (AGM), Providence resources (AGM), Taihua (AGA)

THURSDAY

Dixons, the world of PC-owner, is expected to say that underlying profit before tax in the year to April 30 was about 85 m £. This compares to £ 90. 5 million last year. Observers will be eager to hear what John Browett, Chief Executive, said on the prospects for the economy of consumption.

The retailer has already said that sales of type-like across the group in the year were by 2pc on the year and by set down in the second half. However he also said that its businesses were performing before of their respective markets, including United Kingdom, Italy, Greece and the Nordic countries.

Speaking last month, Mr. Browett said that market conditions "were difficult in many of our markets" throughout the year. He said: "with the difficult economic turmoil continues to a large number of our clients, we remain cautious on the Outlook for the coming year.

Electricals retailer recently had a particularly delicate time. Earlier this month, Argos, owned by Home Retail Group, said that sales of television sets and audio equipment dropped up to 25pc in April and may.

Results of the year: DART group, Dixons retail, the Falkland Island Holdings, Micro Focus International, Norcros, DS Smith

Interim results: Chemring, Safestore Holdings

Trading Update: Green light

Economics: Departures of two day summit of the leaders of the EU in Brussels, data banks BBA high street on loans in may, the monthly CBI trade, eurozone PMI flash survey

Meetings: JD Sports Fashion (AGM), publishing technology (AGM), Soco International (AGM), Stobart (AGA)

FRIDAY

Group of Berkeley, the housebuilder which specializes in London regeneration projects, will post annual results this week.

Chaired by Tony Pidgley, the company is expected to reverse the trend of a fragile housing market showing an increase in revenues of £ 700 m 615 million £ and the growth of 110 m pre-tax profits of £ 130 m £ for the year to 30 April.

Society benefits from the expansion of first London housing and demand of foreign investors. Analysts will be eager to hear the opinion of Mr. Pidgley and Director General Rob Perrins whether if this growth on the market can continue when the rest of the United Kingdom market of real estate is tainted by uncertainty.

Interim results: No announcement

Trading Update: No announcement

Economics: Report of the financial stability of the Bank of England

Meetings: Empyrean energy (AGM)


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The Japan earthquake: market reaction

The earthquake triggered a 30-foot tsunami that swept away homes, crops, cars and boats. Photo: AFP

TAKUJI OKUBO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERAL, TOKYO


"I think that we will see the production industry to suffer a loss of a day of output in March at the most and with the South almost intact, I think, even for manufacturers, the impact will be limited, that they are able to shift production to regions of the South."


"I don't think that is assigned to all annual growth rates." In 1995, after a quarter-on-quarter in quake Kobe growth amounted to 0.8 per cent, so annualization 3.6%, which is in fact strong enough. I think that we are probably talking here death reaching hundreds rather than thousands, as in 1995. »


VINCENT TSUI, AN ECONOMIST AT STANDARD CHARTERED BANK IN HONG KONG


"It is still too early to assess the damages that we still see replicas." We see a strong correction of the yen and the Bank of Japan may maintain his dovish political position at a meeting next week. In an era where the rise of world oil price hit the prospects for global economic recovery is highly dependent on the Japan, this development will impact on them to maintain a dovish stance on policy. »


TIM CONDON, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR ASIA AT ING IN SINGAPORE


"The wisdom of crowds show that markets are very evil, but I was waiting for a clearer picture assess how it is." Some draw a parallel with the RBNZ [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] here and are expecting the Bank of the Japan to act, but I think that the Bank of the Japan is rather stingy in this matter is the Kobe earthquake. He is still too early to say if there will be continued selling in the stock markets. The construction sector could get a big boost from this. »


TSUTOMU YAMADA, MARKET ANALYST, KABU.COM SECURITIES


"The extent of the damage is difficult to say, but seems to be devastating to the economy of the North of the Japan." The Government must act quickly to announce the support packages and the Central Bank should pump more money into the economy. Some manufacturers have factories in quake-hit region and they will have to take on the challenges in the reconstruction of these facilities. "But it is more important that this earthquake could hinder the overall economy of the Japan that everything has begun to show positive signs."


MITSUSHIGE AKINO, FUND MANAGER, ICHIYOSHI INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, TOKYO


"We don't always know what damage such as, but stocks will likely fall Monday, particularly shares in companies that have factories in the affected areas, but on the whole of the predatory use probably be of short duration." As during the Kobe earthquake in 1995, the reaction of the stock market be momentary, also because the epicentre was far from Tokyo, and it is not likely to affect the Japanese economy as a whole.


TSUYOSHI SEGAWA, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES


"As I can see on television, Tokyo and the northern part of the Japan have been considerably damaged, which could cause the panic selling after the end of week." It is possible that the shares of some companies related to the construction ride as back in 1995 when we had the earthquake in Kobe. But we are still uncertain about the macroeconomic effects at this time for investors should not make assumptions and carefully assess the situation.


YASUO YAMAMOTO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MIZUHO RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO


"We don't yet know the full scale of the damage, but in light of what happened after the earthquake in Kobe, which will certainly lead the Government to compile a budget emergency." The Government would have to sell bonds, but it is an emergency situation, so this cannot be avoided.


"Given where the interest rate of the Bank of the Japan reference is now, they can not really lower rates." The Bank of the Japan will focus on the provision of liquidity, possibly by the expansion of market operations. There are factories of automobile and semiconductor North of the Japan, there will be some economic impacts result damage to plants. We expect consumption to fall. This may temporarily lower gross domestic product. »


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Sunday 26 June 2011

Quaestor councils 2010: how they have been successful

There is no doubt that Ashtead is shopping on a high note. However, moving to the u.s. market is real and a recovery has only just begun. Shares are purchased.

This investment trust was recommended, despite the fact that the Russian stock market was more efficient market in 2009, rising 118pc.

The market is one of the hardest hit in the global sell-off in 2008, with the suffering such as oil prices fell below $40 Russia barrel because the country is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues.

In 2010, the Russian stock market was the most powerful of the so-called "BRIC". Blue chips Brazil fell in the year, Chinese 1pc shares lost 17pc, added India 16pc, but Russian Micex blue-chip rose 23pc.

This investment trust managers received a better than. Investment increased by more than half.

But what is the future Outlook of the Russia?

In addition, as we have seen, the oil price is a decisive factor for the Russian GDP. Questor remains optimistic about the price of oil (see Royal Dutch Shell above) and actions in this trust - which trades under the symbol JRS - are still a purchase.

It was a rocky year for mining giant BHP Billiton, has been recommended, because a wide range of commodities.

The company has recommended because it was the largest mining company in the world. BHP is essentially a one-stop products shop.

Problems encountered this year included a mining supertax proposed Australia, made cheaper, and a 39bn failed hostile to $ bid for fertilizer PotashCorp group.

Actions are now trading near to a record.

Thinking QUESTOR Cup fears the United Kingdom defence seems to have been taken into account in the price of the share of BAE Systems at the beginning of last year - but this call has been moved. Actions have experienced a very volatile year - and has completed the 7pc.

The point of view on this company now, however, is similar to that at the same time last year. The world is not safe and spending in the future in the world of Defense is likely to remain high. BAE is a world leader in its field and will continue to benefit from this insecurity.

In fact last week, Defense Minister Liang Guanglie Chinese, said: "in the next five years, our members will be forward preparations for the military conflict in strategic directions."

BAE has a significant and growing presence in the Saudi market - and ship repair company is a bright spot in the United States. Actions are also producing 5 2pc and remain a purchase.

Salamander was recommended as a high-risk oil exploration game because he had a large drilling program at the beginning of the year.

The first part of its programme has proved disappointing, but there were a few more positive results towards the end of the year, which is "de-risked" some of its operations. He made a significant discovery Indonesia gas. He also obtained a new contact sharing of production, also in Indonesia.

The company provides an extensive program of drilling in 2011 and shares remains a high-risk speculative buy on this basis.

This is the worst of the recommendation 6.

Shares plunged earlier in the year, the concerns on energy demand but recovered in the second half, as it became clear that the margins in the future would be protected by its hedging strategy.

The Group was 23.7 percent dividend in the year. The actions are likely to be unstable and they are now.


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Prices are jumping and cotton is low

The Intercontinental Exchange acted quickly Thursday to impose new limits of position on trade, to try to stop the accumulation of unique Fund.

Market participants wanting to take over 300 contracts, which is equal to approximately 30,000 bales, meanwhile, must apply for approval and prove that they have an economic need for cotton.

"Any exemption would be to only specified contract month and should not be regarded as the relief of the responsibilities of all traders have to make their operations in a manner consistent with an orderly market, the ice.

Friday cotton futures had fallen slightly 4 or 2pc, $ 1.68 per pound, remains unusually high.

However, the International Cotton Advisory Committee believes that the problem runs more profound as hot money outbreak in the sector.

He thought that jumping to award two years ago was caused by speculators, but acknowledges this last rally on "world cotton, very low stocks limited offer, demand robust and a depreciation of [the] dollar." This means that the price increases could be here until that U.S. farmers are planting crops more.

Saturday, U.S. producers the biggest exporters of the world, is committed to increasing the areas planted by 14pc this year. National Council of said cotton plantation will be mounted at 12.5 m acres.

However, it will take time and retailers are already achieved. Clothing strings warning of higher prices is supergroup, Marks & Spencer, Hennes & Mauritz, all saying them that their margins can be achieved.

AB Foods said last month, growth in 2011 may be limited by the effects of rising of fresh products, especially after impact over cotton prices in Primark.

However, the retailer said it would not be passing on the jump in costs to shoppers at budget fashion chain.

"We will remain the best value on high street," said John Bason, Chief Financial Officer of AB foods.

"Some of the gain margin [done in the previous year] will be giving back," he said.

Lord Wolfson, CEO of the next is more phlegmatic, arguing that the increases are just part of a cycle.

"Of course there is a concern, but at the end of the day, we do not know until we see what happens to prices, he said."

"Sometime cotton comes to offshore." Longer term it will facilitate. Bubble products tend to push harder and longer than expected. »

Commerzbank analysts also believe the commodity is in a bubble: "We believe that cotton prices is already in a phase of exaggeration and expect a sharp fall in prices in the coming months."

Meanwhile, Marc Ostwald titles of the Monument takes view long term beyond the boom and bust - inexorable increase in this cotton is part of a broader trend across commodities.

"It is just food and energy prices that are encroaching on real disposable income in the world as a whole, but also raw materials for clothing", he says.

"A bubble may partially be, but should make no mistake there is a fundamental underlying"basic change", which the combination of the legacy of globalization, in terms of an outsourcing permanent production and humiliation of the USD everyone in the world very expensive, it warns."

Get free advice on investments maximize with Telegraph wealth management Service


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Friday 24 June 2011

Estonia's step away from Russia no guide for others to join the rocky euro

Mr Ligi said the euro is a “comfortable and unsinkable cruise ship”, offering a safe-haven for small open economies that can be buffeted around in a storm. “It is cosy and warm in the Eurozone. We are not gambling anything.”

His maritime metaphor was thrown back at him by Estonia’s “Save the Kroon” movement, which plastered posters across Tallinn reading “Welcome to the Titanic”. Polls suggest that half the population still clings to their hard-fought symbol of sovereignty.

Eursoceptic leader Anti Poolamets said Estonia’s ruling parties had not shaken off “imperial” psychology from the Soviet era. This time they will jump to the distant orders of Frankfurt instead of Moscow. “The situation is downright peculiar. A small Nordic country that has been praised for not living beyond its means is joining a union that has many members doing the exact opposite,” he said.

Estonia’s budget deficit is just 2.8pc of GDP, making it one of only two countries in the EU that is not in breach of the Maastricht Treaty. Public debt is just 8pc of GDP, a trump card in the new world of sovereign jitters. An ultra-flexible economy makes Estonia – like the Netherlands or Finland – one of the few EMU members genuinely qualified for the rigours of monetary union. Strictly speaking, even Germany fails the test.

It is a remarkable feat for Estonia to meet the entry terms. The nation was still an occupied territory of the Soviet Union less than twenty years ago, with no currency, central bank, market system, or corpus of commercial law.

Estonia’s nation-state had to be constructed almost from scratch, harking back for inspiration to the medieval glory days of the Hanseatic League when Tallinn mattered more than Stockholm.

Stalin had targeted Baltic middle classes for destruction, deporting small businessmen and the intelligentsia to the Gulag en masse. The three Baltic countries – briefly independent states in the inter-war years – were reduced to an industrial cog of Moscow’s central planning.

Unlike the Soviet satellites of central Europe, they were left without the remnants of a trading culture. The transition to a market economy was that much harder.

Estonia lost no time rejecting Russification. It pegged the Kroon to the D-Mark, set a currency board that imposed strict discipline, pioneered the flat tax, and became the poster-child of Eastern Europe’s Thatcher revolution.

It was a spectacular success until all went wrong in the property bubble. Euro mortgages pushed external debt to 116pc of GDP. Tallinn house prices spiked wildly upwards, then collapsed by 60pc, at one stage pushing the country’s private wealth below zero.

Frederik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, said it was a classic boom-bust story, seen time and again around the world when policy-makers lose the plot, but not a failure of the free-market growth strategy itself.

“The 'Baltic economic model' has been highly beneficial and delivered fast real growth. The basic pillars of this model are not to blame for this crisis,” he said.

Estonia opted for hair-shirt austerity to uphold its euro peg rather than let its currency fall to help cushion the shock of the financial crisis. This was doubly painful because the Swedish krona, the Russian rouble, and Polish zloty all fell sharply.

The country has survived its “internal devaluation” without tearing apart the social fabric or triggering violent protest. Unemployment has dropped fast from a peak of 19.8pc to 15.5pc. The economy is growing at a 5pc clip again.

Estonia’s recovery makes it a laboratory case for Ireland, Greece, Spain, and other EMU states caught in debt-deflation, though the parallel can be stretched too far. Estonia’s near zero public debt and ultra-flexibility makes it a special case.

The ordeal has been more painful in Latvia, where debt is higher and the dynamics of debt-deflation more threatening. Latvia’s economy has shrunk by 26pc. It has required an EU-IMF bailout. Public wages have been cut 35pc. Riots toppled a previous government, and the pro-Moscow Harvest Party has become a major force.

Klaus Regling, head of the EU’s €440bn bail-out fund, set off a storm of controversy recently when he cited Latvia’s success – critics say slow torture is a better description – as a vindication of the EU strategy of internal devaluations under a currency system. Yet the political context is very different. The Baltic states suffered economic collapse when the Soviet Union blew apart. They have vivid and recent memories of even greater hardship.

Moreover, it is questionable whether the Baltics offer any useful guide for the unionised and rigid economies of southern Europe, each with its own deeply-rooted national tradition, and each saddled with far greater debt burdens.

Central European states are drawing their own conclusions. Czech premier Petr Necas said it would be “economic and political folly” for his country to join the euro soon.

Poland’s central bank governor, Marek Belka, said there are currently “more risks to being in the eurozone than being outside.”

Slovakia’s parliament speaker even said his country should consider leaving EMU’s debtor club after having joined a year ago, accusing Europe’s big powers of running the system to suit themselves.

“It is time for Slovakia to stop unquestionably trusting the words of eurozone leaders’ words and prepare a plan B. This would be a re-introduction of the Slovak crown,” he said.

Like other ex-Communist states in Eastern Europe, Slovakia’s public debt is modest at under 40pc of GDP.

As monetary union edges closer to a full-fledged debt union with each bail-out, it is less clear why these countries should give away their one great advantage by taking on the shared burden of Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian, Belgian, and French debt.


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Einstein was right - honey bee collapse threatens global food security

The agri-business lender Rabobank said the numbers of US bee colonies failing to survive each winter has risen to 30pc to 35pc from an historical norm of 10pc. The rate is 20pc or higher in much of Europe, and the same pattern is emerging in Latin America and Asia.

Albert Einstein, who liked to make bold claims (often wrong), famously said that "if the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, man would have only four years to live".

Such "apocalyptic scenarios" are overblown, said Rabobank. The staples of corn, wheat, and rice are all pollinated by wind.

However, animal pollination is essential for nuts, melons and berries, and plays varying roles in citrus fruits, apples, onions, broccoli, cabbage, sprouts, courgettes, peppers, aubergines, avocados, cucumbers, coconuts, tomatoes and broad beans, as well as coffee and cocoa.

This is the fastest growing and most valuable part of the global farm economy. Between 80pc and 90pc of pollination comes from domesticated honey bees. Moths and butterflies lack the range to penetrate large fields.

The reservoir of bees is dwindling to the point where ratios are dangerously out of kilter, with the US reaching the "most extreme" imbalance. Pollinated crop output has quadrupled since 1961, yet bee colonies have halved. The bee-per-hectare count has fallen nearly 90pc.

"Farmers have managed to produce with relatively fewer bee colonies up to this point, and there is no evidence of agricultural yields being affected. The question is how much further this situation can be stretched," said the report.

Rabobank said US bee colonies were shrinking even before CCD struck because cheap imports of Asian honey had undercut US hives. Note the parallel with the demise of the US rare earth metals industry, put out of business when China flooded the world with cheaper supplies in the 1990s. This is what happens when free trade is managed carelessly.

China has its own problems. Pesticides used in pear orchards wiped out bees in parts of Sichuan in the 1980s. Crops are now pollinated by hand using feather brushes, a laborious process as one bee colony can pollinate up to 300m flowers a day.

Germany, France and Italy have banned some pesticides, especially neonicotinoids (as in tobacco) that harm the memories of bees.

The British Beekeepers' Association has called for an "urgent review" of these chemicals, fearing we may lose all our bees within a decade if we are not careful. US beekeepers have made similar pleas. The US agriculture department's Bee Research Laboratory has found evidence that even low levels of these pesticides reduce the resistance of bees to fungal pathogens.

Leaked documents from the Environmental Protection Agency confirm that clothianidin used on corn seed is "highly toxic", may pose a "long-term risk" to bees, and that previous tests were flawed.

Critics alleged a cover-up: Rabobank said we should be careful not to vilify agro-industry. The world needs food and fertilizer companies to keep finding ways to raise crop yields, if we are to feed over 70m extra mouths each year, and meet the demands of Asia's diet revolution, offset water scarcity in China and India, and divert a great chunk of the US, Argentine, and EU grain harvest into bio-fuels for cars.

With pincers closing in on world food output from so many sides, we have little margin for error. Scientists are coming to the rescue. Research is honing in on the fungus Nosema, and the Varroa mite, but not fast enough.

Rabobank calls for a step-change in the global response, and in the meantime for tougher rules, so that beekeepers do not have to fight alone, starting with curbs on pesticide use during in daylight hours when bees are foraging.

Apian atrophy is a more immediate threat than global warming, and can be solved, yet has barely risen onto the policy radar screen. This is surely a misjudgment.

Einstein was not always wrong.


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EMU policies are pushing Southern Europe into systemic political crisis

This is what happened to Britain during the ERM crisis of 1992, the trial run for the monetary union.

German reunification was an "asymmetric shock", setting off a boom that compelled the Bundesbank to tighten the screw again and again, and forcing the Bank of England to follow suit at a time when the UK housing bust was already underway.

Spain is about to relive the experience, for Germany is going through another such shock. This one is caused by surging exports to the BRICs -- machinery, luxury cars, aircraft, medical kit, and chemicals. German exports to China rose 40pc last year, and 42pc to Russia.

Oddly, perhaps, I am not seriously worried about Ireland. It has a dynamic manufacturing and export service base, and can hope to export its way back to health. The fact that Ireland has required an EU-IMF rescue should not be misread as evidence that it is in worse shape than several others. Banking busts are desperate but not serious, as the saying goes.

The less open economies of Greece, Spain, and Portugal will find it more of a struggle to recover. The IMF says Portugal’s current account deficit will still be 9.2pc of GDP this year (and 8.4pc in 2015, if it is possible to defy gravity for so long), Greece will be 7.7pc, and Spain 4.8pc.

That these deficits should be so high two or three years into a slump shows how hard it will be to turn this crisis around. Meanwhile, The Netherlands will have a surplus of 6.8pc, and Germany 5.8pc.

The structural misalignment is grotesque, like the perma-divide between Italy’s North and South but without the vast annual subsidies that stops it blowing up.

A full 140 years after the Two Sicilies were gobbled up into Cavour’s lira zone, convergence has not occurred. The Bourbons might have done better.

Already reeling, the indebted European periphery must now brace for a fresh shock as the European Central Bank tightens monetary policy to stop Germany from over-heating.

One-year Euribor rates used to price Spanish mortgages have been creeping up for months, and jumped to 1.54pc after Jean-Claude Trichet turned seriously hawkish on inflation last week. It may go much higher very fast if the ECB starts to raise rates by the middle of this year.

This will not help clear a four-year backlog of unsold homes in Spain, which is no doubt why Madrid is pushing for a capital injection of up to €80bn into the smaller banks and cajas – by partial nationalization if necessary.

The central bank said in November that the banks have €181bn (£153bn) of "potentially problematic" loans to the real estate sector, or 17pc of GDP.

Mr Trichet’s fire-breathing rhetoric can be taken as a signal that the ECB will continue to run monetary policy for German needs and tastes, refusing to accommodate a little slippage on inflation to let Club Med regain lost competitiveness without having to endure the agony of debt-deflation. Indeed, the ECB seems to have picked up some of the worst habits of its mentor.

Mr Trichet is no doubt in an impossible position because the German people gave up the D-Mark under an implicit and sacred contract that EMU should never lead to inflation in their country. Should it ever do so, acquiescence in the whole project comes into question.

Yet Mr Trichet's comments on Thursday were astonishing. He cited the ECB’s rate rise in July 2008 with approval – and as a warning -- as if this monetary Charge of the Light Brigade had been vindicated by events. Most economists viewed that decision as best forgotten.

We now know that large parts of the eurozone were already in recession by then, that the commodity spike was burning itself out, that ECB rhetoric had set off a destructive dollar rout and pushed the euro to ruinous highs of $1.60, and that the foundations of the credit system were already crumbling.

A paper by the Richmond Fed suggests that ECB’s action was a key trigger of the global crisis.

The ECB is now itching to tighten again, this time because of a temporary jump in headline inflation to 2.2pc, caused by rising oil and food prices. No matter that M3 supply growth in the eurozone is anaemic at 1.9pc.

Real M1 deposits have contracted at a rate of 2.8pc over the last six months in the quintet of Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

"This is comparable with the decline in early 2008 just ahead of the plunge into recession," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.

The ECB has passed the eurozone debt parcel back to EMU governments, deeming it the proper responsibility of fiscal authorities to sort out the mess.

So be it. Since the only government that seems to matter in our new German Europe is in Berlin, the parcel has in reality been handed to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She has two viable options. She can choose to save monetary union, first by doubling the size of the EU bail-out fund and halve the interest rate charged so that the debt-stricken states can recover; and then by acquiescing in fiscal federalism and a pooling of debts -- what McKinsey’s chief in Germany calls a "spiral into a Transferunion" – entailing a regime of subsidies for years to come.

That is to say, Germany must be prepared to do for Southern European what it has already done for its own kin in East Germany, but on six times the scale.

Or she can pull the plug, by quietly signalling to the Verfassungsgericht that Berlin would not be too angry if the eight judges declared the EU’s rescue machinery to be unconstitutional, ending EMU as we know it.

What is clear is that status quo is ruinous. The slow suffocation of nations still under Fascist rule just one generation ago cannot end well for liberal democracy in Europe.

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