The week ahead in business and economics: January 3 - 6 2012

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8987895/The-week-ahead-in-business-and-economics-January-3-6-2012.html

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The upcoming week in business and economy: 21 Nov - 25 Nov

Results of the year:Diploma

Interim results:The foundation of Trust, Mitie Invista

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:CBI Conference

Meetings:Worldspreads Group (AGA)

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Tuesday, November 22

• Homeserve, nicknamed the "fifth emergency" because it offers insurance to national crises, update the city on his own trauma when it offers its interim results. Last month the company that sells products such as repair of boiler cover, said that it had suspended all telesales and marketing activities after a review by Deloitte identified problems with the way in which they were sold, sending its shares plunging.

Some linked sales activities began again, but there is still a possibility of an investigation of the Financial Services Authority (FSA).

Henry Carver, Peel Hunt analyst, said: "the key questions are: how much time will it take to absorb the impact of the recent actions, what will be the result of the control of the FSA to calls of"unsatisfactory"sales" until October 31 and what discount is appropriate for the action now? ""

• Investors will look for an update on how changes in meeting room and property issues hit results of the year at Mitchell & Butlers. The remains of pub without a Chief Executive and the insiders group admit majority shareholder, Joe Lewis has not efforts to take control of the company have received the operational part of the company. Last week, Bob Ivell, Executive Chairman, pushed by a restructuring of the management, but investors want to see a leader full-time in place as soon as possible. Numis analyst Doug Jack has forecast profits before taxes for the year down 11pc following the Elimination of the bars to 333, with sales as resembling 2 FP7 in the period.

Results of the year:Enterprise Inns, GW Pharmaceuticals, Mitchell & Butlers, Paragon Group of Companies

Interim results:Major group of yellow, Carlco, CML Microsystems, De La Rue, Ffastfill, Hamworthy, Halma, Homeserve, intermediate Capital Group, KCom, Telecom Plus, Torotrak

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:Public finance data

Meetings:International Ferro metals (AGA), Smiths Group (AGA)

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Wednesday, November 23

Johnson Matthey should describe how the global economic uncertainty is affecting manufacturers when it reports interim results this week. FTSE 100 produces about one third of catalytic converters in vehicles in the world and its performance is closely linked to the progression of motor vehicle manufacturers.

In June, Johnson Matthey warned of the rising prices of rare earth metals and a slowdown in car production caused by the Japanese earthquake. However, revenues increased 14pc 27pc and profits.

Analysts are forecasting this week that the company will post another increase of profits before tax. The consensus forecast for profits before exceptional pre tax for the six months to 30 September is £ 193.7 m, mainly in advance the £ 164.3 m in 2010.

Adam Collins to Liberum Capital said: "Q1 profit before tax to provisional summer management was 98 million pounds sterling and during the second quarter, a sequential improvement of profits there, we believe, supported by the closure of the plant of catalysts for Brussels in July and accelerating us class 8 truck production.".

Results of the year:Avon rubber, compass, Daily Mail & Trust General

Interim results:Assura, Hyder Consulting, Johnson Matthey, Mackay Securities, QinetiQ, Sepura, United Utilities

Trading Update:French Connection

Economics:Mortgage approvals MPC minutes, financial policy Committee, BBA

Meetings:Greatland gold (AGA), Geong International (AGA)

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Thursday, November 24

• There are a few retailers feeling the squeeze more products electrical stores of expensive and often unnecessary gadgets, and Dixons is no exception. However, investors hope that she can confirm that this is better than Comet, which has just been unloaded by Kesa, and Best Buy Europe, which is currently closed by Carphone Warehouse. Credit Switzerland predicted that sales as resembling the United Kingdom will be hosted a fall 10pc in the first quarter to a fall in FP7 for the whole of the first half. Consensus forecasts are for a loss before tax of first-half underlying in the range of 29 m £ 35 million pounds. For the same period last year, the company reported a loss before underlying tax of £ 6.9 m.

• Antofagasta, minor copper, gives a third quarter update. The market expected on how its Esperanza new mine at the Chile performs an update. In the first half of the year, Esperanza produced 29 300 tonnes of copper. The company will have to make good inroads in recent months to reach its target of producing up to 100,000 tons of copper on the site throughout the year, said analysts at the evolution of securities.

Results of the year:F. c. & income & Capital investment, future, Grainger, Phytopharm, Thomas Cook

Interim results:Casts, Dixons, helical Bar brewery, available detail, Pennant, Young & Co

Trading Update:Antofagasta

Economics:First revision of growth Q3 data of investment by the company, CBI industrial trends survey

Meetings:Finsbury food (AGA)

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Friday, November 25

Results of the year: Scottish Investment Trust.

Interim results:Fuller, Smith and Turner, Omega Diagnostics, Trent Severn

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:No application

Meetings:Fusion IP (AGA)

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Stock market crash risk is developing, warns Centre for Economics and Business Research

Veteran forecaster Douglas McWilliams said: "signals seem to be building for a kind of crash of the market - shares and many links are already down significantly from their recent." Earlier this year, we gave one in five ratings on a UK relapse. Now, the chances are about one in three. »

The FTSE fell sharply from a peak of more than 6,000 in early July; whereas the Greek and Italian bond prices fell from a cliff, as investors prepare for a possible defect.

Angus Campbell, Director of sales in Paris to the spread of the company Capital spreads, said: "Sentiment is quite beat;" indices of continue to chop and change between the ups and downs. "It is impossible to make a rational decision on where to invest your money when these huge macro issues dominate the proceedings."

Mr. McWilliams criticizing the US and European politicians for the treatment of their deficits as a policy of bargaining chips. It is few options left open to them to avoid an accident, he said. "The real fear is that major economic weapons have been used to treat the last crisis." "He has no scope to reduce interest rates and printing money is regarded with skepticism, but it may be the only option."

Analysts fear a global crisis if there is any form of positive result of emergency European Summit on Thursday. Mick Gilligan, partner Killik & Co, said: "if it is not an any positive result out of Europe, it could be any of a rough summer." If politicians have disappeared from the break, the markets will wait. »

Deutsche Bank analysts, said last week that global stocks may plunge as much as 35pc if the crisis in a spiral.

Falls may be exacerbated by low trading during the summer and even the Test Match on Thursday, said Mr. McWilliams. "There is a history of crises from August as the financial crisis of 2007 and the default of 1998, not to mention the August crisis more Russian famous which became the first world war."

He joined a growing chorus of voices for a relapse. A recent Deloitte survey showed that one in three Directors finance of FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 companies estimated that the British economy will fall back into recession.

Mr. McWilliams finished by taking a potshot at David Cameron. He said that the Prime Minister could take advantage of the crisis to renegotiate links of the United Kingdom with Europe, which could bring down the Coalition and an early election of the force. "Much could happen in the coming weeks," he concludes.

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The week ahead - June 13, 2011: results, meetings and business updates

New guardian of the United Kingdom risk was somewhat found taken by surprise after Alastair Clark, a veteran of the Bank chosen by the Chancellor to be one of the four external members of the CPF, was declared "absolute" and "contradiction" by MEPs on the Committee of the Treasury.

There are already concerns that the TDC makes the Bank too powerful he becomes the top regulator of the page under the new system of George Osborne.

As with the monetary policy Committee Bank pricing, we find steps on what was going on until after the event, with the Bank publishes the minutes of the FPC on 24 June.

The overall rate of inflation, measured on the consumer price index (CPI), this week remain in 4 5pc and the rate of unemployment to 7 FP7. However, the two should climb higher in coming months.

Majestic wine, the retailer has a policy of "minimum of six bottles", is supposed to report fiscal year pre-tax profits of £ 19. 4 m, £ 16 m mounted last year.

The group, which has benefited from its niche position a wine dealer, is also forecast to set out a target to double to store numbers.

Results of the year

Latchways, majestic wine

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

No announcement

Economy

Quarterly Bulletin of the Bank of England, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet give the floor to the London School of Economics

Meetings

DODS (AGM), Silence Therapeutics (AGM), Mission Marketing (AGM)

Glencore publishes its first quarterly update as a public company, after an early mastered its inclusion.

The shares have traded below IPO price since flotation, as the markets remain weak. Some analysts say the company is poorly understood and it is "able to generate profits through the chain of value of the products," benefiting from the rise in prices, growth of trade and increased volatility.

This update, which is hot on the heals of S & P upgrade Glencore credit rating last week, should give investors more insight.

Results of the year

CML Microsystems, Carphone Warehouse, Oxford Instruments,
Park Group

Interim results

ATH resources, Idox, Interbulk, dynamic continuation

Bargaining update

Air partner, Petrofac, Tesco, Glencore

Economy

Inflation figures monthly UK, Department for communities and Local Government House price index

Meetings

Oil companies smaller BlackRock Trust (AGM), Fortune (AGM), Ted Baker (AGM), power of Turbo (AGA) systems

Results of the year

Liontrust asset management

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

Group game, Mouchel, J Sainsbury

Economy

The UK Chancellor annual book monthly unemployment figures speech Mansion House, Governor of the Bank of England also speak

Meetings

Asia Digital Holdings (AGM), Bank of Ireland (AGM), Faroe Petroluem (AGM), game (AGM) group, Graphite Enterprise Trust (AGM), Sopheon (AGM), Vernalis (AGA)

• Mulberry, the retailer of luxury whose actions have exploded over the past months, is expected to report fiscal year pre-tax profits of £ 21. 5 m, an increase of £ 5. 1 m last year.

• Electronics Premier Farnell group should benefit from the global manufacturing recovery when it publishes the results of the first quarter.

The company that sells articles ranging from batteries to chips to companies such as Microsoft, forecast to increase their income by 5MC in throughout the year to January 31, 2012.

During the last quarter of its last financial year, Premier Farnell has experienced its best three months for 10 years. The company also attempted to calm concerns about the impact of the Japanese earthquake on his business, claiming that its exposure to the country is "very weak". The premier Farnell will also present Valerie Gooding, former Executive Director of Bupa, new President at its annual general meeting.

• WS Atkins, the design and engineering group, reports results for the year.

Earlier this year, the shares of the company, which worked on the Tower Burj Al Arab, Dubai rallied after it said a pick-up in the Middle East of profits in the year to March 31 must beat expectations. In this spirit, analysts expect the company to profit before tax of approximately 96 m report £ on revenues of £ 1. 56bn, according to watch digital.

Atkins makes 10pc of its net sales in the Middle East, with 30pc of the United States and over 50pc in the United Kingdom.

Results of the year

WS Atkins, Consort medical, Mulberry, polar Capital Trust technology, Cfseu

Interim results

CareTech

Bargaining update

Ashtead, Premier Farnell, investment of real estate credit

Economy

Details of the sales figures, the confidence index of consumers across the country, meeting of Committee of the interim financial policy Bank of England for the first time

Meetings

The software link International (AGM), Highland Gold Mines (AGM), Kingfisher (AGM), Corin Group (AGM)

Results of the year

No announcement

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

No announcement

Economy

No announcement

Meetings

Tarsus (AGM), Uniq (AGM)

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Ireland should honour its debts, says Irish business federation chief Danny McCoy

Pressure is mounting on the Irish government to rethink its plans for a "haircut" on the subordinated debt of Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide Building Society. Photo: AFP

"Ireland should honour its debts if it can," said Danny McCoy, head the Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC).

"The country makes a living taking capital from people and looking after it, and you don't want to get a reputation for carrying out partial defaults," he told The Daily Telegraph.

Ireland's financial services industry is around 9.8pc of GDP, with big players such as Merrill and Citigroup operating from Dublin's 'Canary Dwarf'. But foreign investment is also the lifeblood of the country's manufacturing industry, led by computers and pharmaceuticals.

IBEC's comments come amid mounting pressure on the Irish government to rethink its plans for a "haircut" on the subordinated debt of Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide Building Society (INBS).

Millhouse, the asset management group of Roman Abramovich, is the latest foreign fund to express fury, warning that Ireland faces possible legal action and a "huge reputation loss" if it imposes a haircut on creditors. The fund said it had been "misled and deceived" by the Irish government, though this class of debt was quietly dropped when the guarantee was extended last month.

The exact shape of any "burden-sharing" is still unclear. Brian Lenihan, finance minister, has said the junior bondholders should make a "significant contribution toward meeting the costs" of the state bailout.

These investors took extra risk to enjoy extra yield, and cannot expected shield when the bank collapses. The debt of senior bondholders is considered sacrosanct.

Mr Lenihan has to walk a fine line: talk of debt restructuring for Anglo and INBS conflicts with his other message that Ireland is recovering from the crisis and still enjoys reserves of economic wealth.

Yet like finance ministers across the West, he also has to secure political support for austerity measures. This is increasingly hard to do without forcing bondholders to share at least some of the pain.

Hedge funds also have to watch their step. The political balance of power in Europe is moving against them. If they were to bring a small country like Ireland to its knees, the EU authorities would undoubtedly respond.

IBEC's Mr McCoy said the €40bn(£35bn) total cost of bailing out the banks had landed on the shoulders of 2m people in the Irish workforce, or €20,000 per person.

While this is an understandable cause of anguish, Mr McCoy said savings from a partial default on €3bn of Anglo and INBS subordinated debt, would be a small fraction of this.

Separately, Moody's called for a "credible plan" by the Irish government to bring its budget deficit back to 3pc of GDP by 2014, warning that the country could face a further downgrade. The report had no market impact.

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