Thursday 8 March 2012

Questor share Tip: Forth Ports bid target once more

When Forth Ports rejected a £ 14 a share bid approach of Northstream consortium last may, he took surveys of its other shareholders on what could be an acceptable price of the takeover.

The message was clear: even £ 15 would not suffice. But it would be closer to the mark.

These new filtered on the waves, and now the key member of Northstream - the Arcus European Infrastructure Fund - are solo sailing with a renewed inclination at the last of the main groups cited port.

Arcus, which is already a principal shareholder of Forth with 22 8pc, filed a 16.30 £ proposed a share offer, upgrading Forth at £ 746 m - as agreed to pay a p 20 final dividend share for 2010.

This time, Forth - owner of Scottish Leith, Rosyth and Grangemouth ports as well as the London Tilbury docks - has opened its books.

The price mentioned is not the £ almost all who might have been necessary at property boom when evaluators were salivate on the potential of the Forth development assets.

In 2005, these assets have been assessed by DTZ to 285 m £-a value well enough, they held until 2007.

Then came the crash. 2008 Assessment of DTZ diving at only £ 60 m - and while it amounted to 74 m £ 2009, reflecting in part Forth taking full ownership of the development of Ocean Terminal in Edinburgh.

It is one of the problems with valuing Forth: there is clear potential in the field of property realizing it but is another story.

There are other possibilities, too, plant biomass on surplus lands in the Scottish ports and the construction of boost for the 2012 Olympics are bringing to Tilbury. But a large part of this tomb in the box entitled "potential".

As for now, the values of Arcus proposal that Forth to about 29 times expected earnings - and it is hard to see a counter-bidder, set the given Arcus chunky. It is noticeable, too, that Arcus is made that "confirmation due diligence", involving an agreement is not far away.

There is a risk, of course, a final shift. But it seems only a matter of time before the boat coming Forth. Investors must not long to wait. Hold'em.


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