Showing posts with label doubts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label doubts. Show all posts

Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Doubts grow over wisdom of Ben Bernanke 'super-put'

This amounts to a tax on US consumers, transferring US income to Mid-East petro-powers. Copper has behaved in much the same way. So have sugar, soya, and cotton.

The dollar plunged yet again. That may have been the Fed's unstated purpose. If so, Washington has angered the world's rising powers and prompted a reaction with far-reaching strategic consequences.

Li Deshui from Beijing's Economic Commission said a string of Asian states share China's "deep bitterness" over dollar debasement, and are examining ways of teaming up to insulate themselves from the tsunami of US liquidity. Thailand said its central bank is already in talks with neighbours to devise a joint protection policy.

Brazil's central bank chief Henrique Mereilles said the US move had created "excessive dollar liquidity which we are absorbing," forcing his country to restrict inflows. Mexico's finance minister warned of "more bubbles."

These countries cannot easily shield themselves from the inflationary effect of QE2 by raising interest rates since this leads to further "carry trade" inflows in search of yield. They are being forced to eye capital controls, with ominous implications for the interwoven global system.

In London and Frankfurt the verdict was just as harsh. "In our view, this is one of the greatest policy mistakes in the Fed's history," said Toby Nangle from Baring Asset Management.

"The Fed is gambling that the so-called 'portfolio balance channel effect' – pushing money out of government bonds and into other assets – will lift risk asset prices. The gamble is that this boosts profits and wages, rather than simply prices. We remain unconvinced. How will a liquidity solution correct a solvency problem?" he said.

"A policy error," said Ulrich Leuchtmann from Commerzbank. The wording of the Fed statement is "potentially dangerous" because it leaves the door open to a further flood of Treasury purchases if unemployment stays high. "It is a bottomless pit," he said.

Of course, it is precisely this open door that has so juiced risk trades, from Australian dollar futures, to silver contracts, and junk bonds. Goldman Sachs thinks QE2 will ultimately reach $2 trillion, with no exit until 2015. Such moral hazard is irresistible. It is the Bernanke 'super-put'.

Yet the reluctance of investors to leap back into the US Treasury market as they did after QE1 is revealing. The 30-year segment of the Treasury market is too small to matter, but symbolism does matter. Vigilantes sniff stealth default. "If long bond investors continue to throw their collective toys out of the cot, it risks upending the Fed's policy," said Michael Derk from FXPro.

Mr Bernanke is targeting maturities of 5 to 10 years with purchases of Treasuries. These bonds have behaved better: 10-year yields fell 14 points on Thursday to 2.48pc. However, Mark Ostwald from Monument Securities said foreign funds may take advantage of QE2 to dump their holdings on the Fed, rotating the money emerging markets rather than US assets.

Bond funds are already restive. Pimco's Bill Gross says the great bull market in bonds is over, denigrating Fed policy as the greatest "ponzi scheme" in history. Warren Buffett has chimed in too, warning that anybody buying bonds at this stage is "making a big mistake",

Fed chair Ben Bernanke uses the term 'credit easing' to describe his strategy because the goal is to lower borrowing costs. If he fails to achieve this over coming months - because investors balk - the policy will backfire.

No clear rationale for fresh QE can be found in orthodox monetarism. Data from the St Louis Federal Reserve show that M2 money supply stopped contracting in the early summer and has since been expanding at an accelerating rate, topping 9pc over the last four-week bloc.

The Fed has used the 'Taylor Rule' on output gaps as a theoretical justification for QE, but Stanford Professor John Taylor has more or less said his theories have been hijacked. "I don't think (QE) will do much good, and I also worry about the harm down the road," he said.

It has not been lost on markets that the Fed's purchases of $900bn of Treasuries by June (with reinvested funds from mortgage debt) covers the Treasury's deficit over the same period. The slipperly slope towards 'monetization' of public debt beckons.

Global investors mostly accepted that the motive for QE1 was emergency liquidity, and that stimulus would later be withdrawn. But there are growing suspicions that QE2 is Treasury funding in disguise.

If they start to act on this suspicion, they could push rates higher instead of lower, and overwhelm the Bernanke stimulus. That would precipitate an ugly chain of events for the US.


View the original article here


This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.

Friday, 6 May 2011

Volatile day raises doubts in term of bull of the FTSE

It was in evidence on Tuesday as the FTSE 100 closed 0.98 points to 5974.76 following a volatile trading day. The broader 250 FTSE fell 4.35 11743.52 as traders and analysts speculated whether the so-called "great bull run" had hit the wall.

"With the prospect of higher interest rates, higher inflation, a rising unemployment and slowdown in global growth, the negatives are much too much to ignore, more earnings for shares may be difficult to obtain, which means", warned Angus Campbell at Capital spreads. "After such a huge rally, investors are naturally cautious and until in 2011 both UK indices have ground stop."

Political unrest across the Middle East continued to spook investors.

Fall of the price of oil reaches the value of gold, which had benefited from a flight to safety Monday. Randgold resources, including the mines of the precious commodity, fell 400 p to £ 44.80 while hardened African Barrick Gold p 20½ at 547½.

Group Weir was one or other of the big losers of the day despite a 58pc jump better than expected in the benefits of the reporting year. The British engineer titles, which have increased by more than 100pc of last year, fell 84 p to £ 16.95 on making profits as strong recoveries in the shale oil and gas and mining markets fuelled demand for pumps and valves of the company.

Among the smaller caps, rate shares dropped 44.1 - 20pc - 176.4% after the author of the set - top box has warned that one of its American customers had delayed a large order to 2012, reducing its forecast of growth of sales of 2011.

bt Group and Vodafone were among the winners of the day, rising 7.3 percent 191.1 and 3.15 181,85 p. The pair rose after Morgan Stanley analysts placed a rating of "upgrade" on the telecommunications sector.

Analysts, said: "in the reduction of rates (MTR) mobile endpoints, roaming, unbundling and deflation in all DSL products faces." The prospects are more calm now, by reductions in MTR the final furlong, EU lower exposure and fixed prices inflate homelessness. Data mobile are not driving the European sector, but it have impact in the United States and in emerging markets, to which EU companies are subject. Download us our attractive sector view. »

Old mutual led a rally in the financial sector after the Anglo-sud African insurer beat analyst expectations with a 14pc rising profits and said it was close to the sale of his business life U.S.. Shares in the Group spent 4.4 to 137.7 p, then that peers including Aviva also increased.

Prudential, which will be Wednesday deliver its first results of the exercise given his agreement of. 5bn (£ 22bn) of $35 for AIA collapsed last summer, also presented in the ranking, from 13½ to 714 p.

Elsewhere, shares of Cairn energy advanced 6.8 at 448 p after Bank of America, Merrill Lynch upgraded its rating of the Explorer of oil "buy" from "neutral", with a price target increased from 520 p, 485 p.

In a note, Merrill said that it expected the uncertainty on the Elimination of the Cairn India Vedanta Resources to facilitate. "While we do not exclude that the agreement could close after the April 15 deadline, we are optimistic that it will end in the short term," the broker added.

Heritage oil also found under the spotlight, from 7½ to 282 p on speculation that BG Group explores bid for the assets of the Iraqi gas company.

Heritage oil company's shares have plunged since January, when he said that he had found gas in the region of Kurdistan of Iraq - disappointing investors who had hoped for a discovery of oil. Reports in Africa suggest that the company is also close to resolving a dispute tax troublesome in Uganda.

Back among the smaller caps, Ashtead acquired 16.7 to 203,2 after his British industrial equipment rental company
third-quarter loss before tax of £ 1. 7 m.

Evolution of securities raised its price target for the company, which employs diggers from small tools equipment, to 225 percent of 200 p. "in July, our forecast pre-tax 2011 held at 12 million pounds sterling." Yesterday, it was 20 million pounds, after today's announcement, it is likely to rise to £ 25 m to £ 30 m, "evolution of values securities analyst and Philip Sparks said in a note."

Betfair also rose 67½ to 955 p after you have copied rivals Ladbrokes and William Hill by moving parts of its business in Gibraltar. The move, which has been taken to benefit from a lower tax environment in the region, just a few months after that Betfair has completed its controversial London listing last October.


View the original article here


This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.