World power swings back to America

The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

"The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As US reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour from oligopolistic players," said Mr Blanch.

Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, 're-inshoring' is the new fashion.

"Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US.

A "tipping point" is near in computers, electrical equipment, machinery, autos and motor parts, plastics and rubber, fabricated metals, and even furniture.

"A surprising amount of work that rushed to China over the past decade could soon start to come back," said BCG's Harold Sirkin.

The gap in "productivity-adjusted wages" will narrow from 22pc of US levels in 2005 to 43pc (61pc for the US South) by 2015. Add in shipping costs, reliability woes, technology piracy, and the advantage shifts back to the US.

The list of "repatriates" is growing. Farouk Systems is bringing back assembly of hair dryers to Texas after counterfeiting problems; ET Water Systems has switched its irrigation products to California; Master Lock is returning to Milwaukee, and NCR is bringing back its ATM output to Georgia. NatLabs is coming home to Florida.

Boston Consulting expects up to 800,000 manufacturing jobs to return to the US by mid-decade, with a multiplier effect creating 3.2m in total. This would take some sting out of the Long Slump.

As Cleveland Fed chief Sandra Pianalto said last week, US manufacturing is "very competitive" at the current dollar exchange rate. Whether intended or not, the Fed's zero rates and $2.3 trillion printing blitz have brought matters to an abrupt head for China.

Fed actions confronted Beijing with a Morton's Fork of ugly choices: revalue the yuan, or hang onto the mercantilist dollar peg and import a US monetary policy that is far too loose for a red-hot economy at the top of the cycle. Either choice erodes China's wage advantage. The Communist Party chose inflation.

Foreign exchange effects are subtle. They take a long to time play out as old plant slowly runs down, and fresh investment goes elsewhere. Yet you can see the damage to Europe from an over-strong euro in foreign direct investment (FDI) data.

Flows into the EU collapsed by 63p from 2007 to 2010 (UNCTAD data), and fell by 77pc in Italy. Flows into the US rose by 5pc.

Volkswagen is investing $4bn in America, led by its Chattanooga Passat plant. Korea's Samsung has begun a $20bn US investment blitz. Meanwhile, Intel, GM, and Caterpillar and other US firms are opting to stay at home rather than invest abroad.

Europe has only itself to blame for the current “hollowing out” of its industrial base. It craved its own reserve currency, without understanding how costly this “exorbitant burden” might prove to be.

China and the rising reserve powers have rotated a large chunk of their $10 trillion stash into EMU bonds to reduce their dollar weighting. The result is a euro too strong for half of EMU.

The European Central Bank has since made matters worse (for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France) by keeping rates above those of the US, UK, and Japan. That has been a deliberate policy choice. It let real M1 deposits in Italy contract at a 7pc annual rate over the summer. May it live with the consequences.

The trade-weighted dollar has been sliding for a decade, falling 37pc since 2001. This roughly replicates the post-Plaza slide in the late 1980s, which was followed - with a lag - by 3pc of GDP shrinkage in the current account deficit. The US had a surplus by 1991.

Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research argue that this may happen again in their new book "The American Phoenix".

The switch in advantage to the US is relative. It does not imply a healthy US recovery. The global depression will grind on as much of the Western world tightens fiscal policy and slowly purges debt, and as China deflates its credit bubble.

Yet America retains a pack of trump cards, and not just in sixteen of the world’s top twenty universities.

It is almost the only economic power with a fertility rate above 2.0 - and therefore the ability to outgrow debt - in sharp contrast to the demographic decay awaiting Japan, China, Korea, Germany, Italy, and Russia.

Europe's EMU soap opera has shown why it matters that America is a genuine nation, forged by shared language and the ancestral chords of memory over two centuries, with institutions that ultimately work and a real central bank able to back-stop the system.

The 21st Century may be American after all, just like the last.

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Hedge fund chief David Harding earns £54m from predicting swings in commodity prices

David Harding's Winton Capital uses complex algorithms to bet on movements in the price of bonds, shares and commodities. Photo: CORBIS

The founder of hedge fund Winton Capital Management received a £54m dividend last year, according to accounts just filed at Companies House.

As the ultimate controlling party of Winton Capital, Mr Harding is also likely to be its "highest-paid director", who received £4m in pay last year, according to the accounts.

Many hedge fund owners have seen their fortunes continue to soar despite the economic downturn.

Louis Bacon, the London-based American who runs Moore Capital, saw his fortune nearly double to £1.1bn last year, according to a list compiled earlier this year. Moore Capital's global investor fund was up 18pc last year.

The latest accounts for Winton Capital, filed late last week, show that it paid out a dividend of £96.2m over the year to December 31, 2009.

Of this, £61.1m was paid to executive directors on their ordinary shareholdings in the company. Mr Harding's shareholding values his share of the pay-out at around £54m.

Over 2009, Winton Capital had a turnover of £102m, down from £395m in 2008. It made a pre-tax profit of £60.3m, compared to £288m the year before.

Although Mr Harding's recent bumper pay-out dwarfs most pay packages in the City, he actually took a cut in pay and dividends compared to 2008 due to the relatively weaker performance. Then, Mr Harding, 47, received £101m in dividends and £17m in salary.

Mr Harding used to own AHL, a commodities trading firm that was bought by Man Group. He left and in 1997 founded Winton.

The Kensington-based company uses complex algorithms to bet on movements in the price of bonds, shares and commodities.

It is thought to employ more than 50 researchers with PhDs in esoteric subjects such as extragalactic astrophysics. His staff are said to study historic data in minute detail to develop complex computer programs capable of predicting future trends.

Mr Harding himself studied theoretical physics before going into finance. He loves punk music and his hobbies include walking and economic history.

Last year, he was quoted as saying: "It is nice to have a golden life and a purpose to engage in, a reason to go to work. I wouldn't have set out to be a futures trader if I hadn't wanted to make a lot of money."

The accounts show that Winton Capital Management paid corporation tax of £16.8m in 2009, down from £86.2m the previous year when profits were higher.

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