Whenever I look at things are capture. The participation rate for the gathering of end of term of my son was only seven - the rest had measles. During this time, for a time Friday night, they were dropping like flies to News Corporation. First Rebekah Brooks, then the Hinton. Who consider their palm and see black spot then?
Nowhere contagion was so virulent that in today's financial markets. We are not near the level of irrational fear sweeping markets in late 2008, but more than any time in the past that three years ago the feeling that no one is safe from infections.
Investing is never completely rational and it is a common place that markets hate nothing more than the uncertainty. Investors are able to watch the same facts and draw completely different conclusions, according to fear how they feel
Take the Chinese companies who chose, for reasons good and bad, win a stock exchange quotation to the United States by taking over a company with a market in the dormant list it but no business - a so-called society.
When confidence in the history of China's investment was high, is there no reason to believe that this was nothing other than a good hunting for interesting investment field. Today, after a flurry of alleged fraud and the attention of speculative short-sellers, it has become a case of "there be dragons".
Nothing has really changed and there is, without doubt, some legitimate Chinese companies for these courageous and diligent enough to do the necessary due diligence, but they are as popular as children with measles now.
Closer to home, contagion is the watchword in the markets of Europe debt too. Ten days ago the line in the sand in the sovereign debt crisis device was drawn to the Spain. It is the "too big for the guarantor". Italy enjoyed the status of a relative safe haven, but within days, he resembled a suspicious Chinese dress establishing its goods in New York.
As shown in the figure, Rome was the interchangeable years with Berlin in the eyes of investors in sovereign debt. This began to change with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, but last week, as the extra performance required by investors to invest in bonds of the Italy reached a euro-ère high, no one would approach the country unless sanitized in gown and mask.
It is true that the Italy has a larger burden of debt, eye-watering 1.8 billion euros (1.58 billion to £) or 120pc of economic production, all countries in Europe, other than the Greece (150pc). Its debts are almost twice those of Spain (64pc), for example. It is also true that its debt reduction plans have been casual - they were not due to kick in until 2013. Undeniable, is also the divide between Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti. And no one would claim that the "liberal revolution" the Italy was a success - the country has suffered a decade of declining productivity.
However, it is also the case that, unlike the Greece, the Italy has a track record of reducing its budget deficit. Unlike the Spain, it is not a housing bubble and bust. According to the IMF, he runs a surplus of low-budget 0 2pc and its current account deficit is relatively low in the FP7 2 of GDP. The external debt of the Italy is only one-fifth of economic production and its loans to deposit ratio is comfortable. It has a decent sector which makes things, that the rest of the world wants to buy therefore exports are recovering and unemployment is manageable. He can afford its pension commitments.
Unfortunately, all little account because, with a big and liquid, Italy bond market has become a proxy for hedge finance betting on a breach of the euro area. It is a bet much better that speculate on the default value of credit market swaps.
Markets are attempts to force the issue, Lasse to the failure of politicians to fight against the evils of long duration in the heart of the European crisis - that the only lasting solution to a broken monetary union is a greater tax integration and, finally, the common euro area bond issue, collectively funded by all Member States.
While policies are outstanding, investors in Europe must expect the dissemination to the germs.
? Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity International investment. The views expressed are his own.
tomrstevenson@fil.com
Twitter: @ tomstevenson63
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