Wednesday 24 August 2011

So far, but so safe to relax and we are in danger of being pushed to Europe

Portugal denied EU pressure for a rescue operation but markets did not believe them.

Nature at two speeds on the continent were drawn clearly traders on their screens - countries where bond yields are fall (and rise in the price) and those where yields continue their relentless travel upwards where obligations prices fall as investors turn their back on countries financing needs.


Italy and the Spain dislike the concept of "devices" nation, but in terms of funding, they are moving in this direction, join the Ireland, the Portugal and the Greece. Spanish and Italian bonds risk premia were pushed yesterday at their highest levels since the euro was born in 1999.


Sovereign debt crisis becomes a self-sufficient, daytime phenomenon as bond investors refused to believe these Governments claiming political rhetoric from does not need to bail. Their lack of support just exacerbates the problem, the European Central Bank and the international monetary Fund help inevitable.


Without full and credible deficit reduction plans, appearing on politically unpalatable, countries such as the Portugal will be forced into Ireland in reality even more unpleasant to accept a bailout.


By this stage a country facing long-term and permanent damage as it takes even more debt but is supported by an economy struggling to grow or to decline.


At United Kingdom yields gilt 10 years encouraged by once again 3 2pc, continuing the theme of the United Kingdom considered a safe haven. This is partly due to the fact that UK debt has already average maturity 14 years compared to eight in savings in distress and significantly on our credit 80pc is occupied by institutions national as UK pension funds, ready for greater stability on the market.


But we cannot be complacent. Monday with the Agency the responsibility of the budget (TBO) forecasts show that our annual discovered is £ 148. 5bn or 10pc of GDP. Public sector net debt will hit £ 923bn or 61pc GDP.


The fact that investors are comfortable with these record levels of debt is because our policy has changed and we plan credible claims, at least for our annual discovered which is scheduled for the fall to £ 18bn or 1pc of GDP by 2015. However, public sector net debt will continue to rise over the next five years as our annual, although falling, is added to the stack of our total debt exceeded. By 2015, compared to the 923bn £, reach 1.3 trillion of £.


But the powers of market are other obsession tirelessly in Europe are only outstanding here because investors believe our assumptions that budgetary consolidation, reform of welfare and released for the growth of the private sector will make our still precarious equilibrium finance.


For the moment at least, response to serious problems of our own is in our hands, but no sign of convenience by the coalition on our finances and apparent contagion in Europe is rapidly surround us, too.


View the original article here


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