Friday, 30 December 2011

Pressure on the ECB grows as Mario Monti rides to rescue

The "halo effect" of Mr Monti helped bring Italian bond yields back from the brink of a catastrophic spiral on Friday but the gains are likely to be tested again as the new team faces the stark reality of Italy's fractured politics.

"The ECB must make it clear that it will not allow Italy's bond yields to rise above 5pc, however much it costs," said Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

He described the current policy of half-hearted bond purchases as "a recipe for failure", signalling to markets that the ECB is not willing to see the job through with overwhelming force.

Britain's Business Secretary, Vince Cable, echoed the calls for bolder action, blaming the ECB's passive stand for the dramatic escalation of the crisis last week that pushed Italy's €1.8 trillion to brink of meltdown and spread contagion to France.

"The central bank has to have unlimited powers to intervene to support economies, and indeed banks, to prevent collapse," he told the BBC.

"It's very clear that in addition to the disciplines that the southern Europeans are going to have to adopt, the Germans are going to have to play their role in supporting the eurozone. That's either directly or through the central bank, making absolutely sure that the big countries that are subject to speculative attack are properly supported with adequate liquidity."

The EU's €440bn rescue fund (EFSF) is supposed to take the baton from the ECB so it can step back, but the fund is not yet ready and is itself struggling to raise money at a viable cost.

The replacement of Mr Berlusconi with a credible leader committed to the deep reforms demanded by the EU makes it much easier for the ECB to justify help for Italy, but it is far from clear that the bank is willing to give Mr Monti a "dowry" of lower borrowing costs to lighten his task.

Jens Weidmann, head of Germany's Bundesbank and a pivotal ECB governor, has further dug in his heels against any extension of bond purchases.

"We have a mandate and we have to stick to our mandate. Fixing an interest rate for a country is certainly not compatible with our mandate," he said over the weekend.

"The eurosystem must not be a lender of last resort for sovereigns because this would violate Article 123 of the EU treaty. I cannot see how you can ensure the stability of a monetary union by violating its legal provisions."

Investors are betting on a torrid relief rally across global asset markets this week on hopes that new leaders in Italy and Greece will at least break weeks of deadlock, but it is already clear that politics will remain messy.

Mr Berlusconi warned that his People of Liberty Party intends to exercise a de facto veto in Italy's Senate, maintaining its grip on power behind the scenes.

"We are ready to pull the plug," Mr Berlusconi allegedly told supporters. He aims to block any form a wealth tax or bank account levy.

Mr Monti faces a difficult task, forced to work with shifting alliances and bitterly opposed parties on one issue at a time.

"We won't give you a blank cheque," said Umberto Bossi from the Northern League.


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