Wednesday 28 December 2011

Price of gold like a crisis

There is still scope for gold to outperform, as the price adjusted for inflation is medium off the coast of its peaks 30 years ago. Photo: ALAMY

"Gold is likely to record highs if disorder continues," said Adrian Ash, Director of research at the tomb of Bullion, which holds more than $billion (621 m £) gold for customers.


At $ 1 405, the price is already closing in on his record of $1,423.75, struck on 6 December last year.


"Gold is a form of insurance crisis, which retains only pay", said Mr. Ash. "If you have purchased at Northern Rock began to crumble you would have doubled your money now.". He kept payment as an assurance of crisis for the past four years. »


Indeed, the final nail however big shares some similarities with the situation in which the world is now.


"There are interesting with 1980 historical comparisons when the tanks went in Afghanistan and he was weak leadership in the United States," said Mr. Ash.


"Back then us also saw outbreak of oil prices and inflation, making the sound events today very similar to the last time really succeeded gold medal."


But there is always place for outperformance, as the price adjusted for inflation is always medium off the coast of its peaks 30 years ago. He hit $ 850 an ounce in January 1980, which is something of the order of $2 250 when adjusted for inflation. If the 1980s are really return, or much beyond a run.


Capital Economics, headed by economist and Telegraph columnist Roger Bootle, scheduled in December that gold could hit $ 1,600 in 2011 and reach $2,000 at the end of 2012.


"We are more positive on gold". A firmer dollar, fears of inflation if feather and large appetite for risk may be limited in the coming months. But the price of gold should continue to be supported by demand for shelter with other possible economic and financial shocks Capital Economics said.


However, it is political unrest driving the price higher than at the present time - is a very political metal. "Buying gold is always a political investment because you are essentially disengagement of the monetary system of the world," said Mr. Ash.


With the money continues printing via quantitative easing to the United States, many lose faith of global currencies. It is not just investors who are frightened by printing crawling of money by the Fed or investors concerned by inflation are turning to gold. Central banks are too.


Earlier this month, the World Gold Council revealed that central banks became net purchasers of metal in 2010 for the first time since 1988. Until 2009, the central banks had been unloading their reserves of gold, believing he could go no higher, but things have changed.


Historically, Western Governments had been holders of gold, but now central bankers in emerging markets more and more purchase in the history of gold.


"Emerging nations which have not historically supported their gold coins and therefore have not acquired vast holdings of the metal are redressing the situation," said Daniel Major, an analyst with metals at RBS. "The trend is characterized by Russia, where purchases are planned to continue to 100 tonnes per year, having bought 135 tonnes last year."


China began to purchase of its massive holdings of debt denominated gave substantial currency of the country risk in its reserves. The most recent American finance figures show that China held almost $892bn we obligations.


"China's gold reserves had tonnes at end of 2010 represented 1. FP7 just to forex total reserves", said Mr Major. It would be surprising that the Chinese did not wish to diversify their reserves more.


There are several ways to play the price of gold - take the physical metal exchange funds shares traded. The price is likely to remain volatile but high, therefore equities are a good way to play the merchandise. You invest in gold companies that have production, but also the possibility of increasing their production or reserves.


Whenever you turn on the TV, you can find another reason to buy gold. It seems that crises just won't go away.


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