Shanghai shipping slump as IMF warns China on euro slump

The shipping data came as the International Monetary Fund warned that China is vulnerable to the 'clear and present danger emanating from Europe'. Photo: ALAMY

The shipping specialist Lloyd's List said container traffic through the Port of Shanghai - the world's largest - fell by 100,000 boxes in January from a year earlier, or 4pc. Volumes fell by over one million tonnes.

The figures may have been distorted by China's Lunar Year but there has been a relentless slide in the Shanghai transport data for months.

"China's shipping markets face grievous challenges," said the Shanghai International Shipping Institute. It acknowledged that the industry in the grip of downturn and likely to face a "worsening situation" in early 2012.

The biggest falls in container volumes have been on the Asia-Europe route.

The data came as the International Monetary Fund warned that China is vulnerable to the "clear and present danger emanating from Europe" and could see growth halve to roughly 4pc if the crisis escalates.

"China's growth rate would drop abruptly if the euro area experiences a sharp recession. In the unfortunate event such a downside scenario becomes reality, China should respond with a significant fiscal package," it said.

A fall in global growth by 1.75 percentage points would cut Chinese growth by more than twice as much unless Beijing took active steps to counter the shock, showing how distorted China's economic model has become.

"China would be highly exposed through trade linkages," it said. The report is a none-too-subtle reminder that China has a huge stake in Europe's stability and should be ready to stump up more money for an IMF-led rescue.

The Fund said China had "ample room" to boost stimulus by 3pc of GDP if need be, but warned against another credit blitz through the banking system or fresh infrastructure projects.

"China still has a long way to go to digest the side effects of the surge of credit unleashed in the wake of the global crisis. A large external shock would bring many of these domestic risks more forcefully to the forefront," it said.

The IMF fears that China had already pushed debt to safe limits. The ratio of loans to GDP has doubled to almost 200pc over the last five years - a larger jump than in the US during the sub-prime bubble.

Much of this leaked into property, exacerbated by interest rates on deposit accounts last year of minus 3pc in real terms that pushed investors into hard assets.

Credit curbs have punctured the bubble, but there are worries that this could go too far. Top developer China Vanke reported a 39pc fall in home sales in January, while Guangzhou R&F recorded a 57pc drop.

"Things will be very difficult in 2012: it will be a winter and a test for the entire industry," said Mao Daqing, Vanke's vice president. A price war before Christmas failed to halt the crash in sales.

Caixin Magazine said China's once-hot property market is "turning polar" and reported that Moody's fears Hong Kong-based developers may struggle to refinance foreign debt this year.

The IMF advised Beijing to stay the course on the housing curbs. If stimulus is needed, the authorities should run a bigger budget deficit with "targeted transfers and unemployment benefits".

In a remarkable twist, the IMF proposed direct subsidies for white goods, a sort of Chinese 'cash-for-clunkers'.

"A fiscal package should be the front line of defence," it said.

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Stock market crash risk is developing, warns Centre for Economics and Business Research

Veteran forecaster Douglas McWilliams said: "signals seem to be building for a kind of crash of the market - shares and many links are already down significantly from their recent." Earlier this year, we gave one in five ratings on a UK relapse. Now, the chances are about one in three. »

The FTSE fell sharply from a peak of more than 6,000 in early July; whereas the Greek and Italian bond prices fell from a cliff, as investors prepare for a possible defect.

Angus Campbell, Director of sales in Paris to the spread of the company Capital spreads, said: "Sentiment is quite beat;" indices of continue to chop and change between the ups and downs. "It is impossible to make a rational decision on where to invest your money when these huge macro issues dominate the proceedings."

Mr. McWilliams criticizing the US and European politicians for the treatment of their deficits as a policy of bargaining chips. It is few options left open to them to avoid an accident, he said. "The real fear is that major economic weapons have been used to treat the last crisis." "He has no scope to reduce interest rates and printing money is regarded with skepticism, but it may be the only option."

Analysts fear a global crisis if there is any form of positive result of emergency European Summit on Thursday. Mick Gilligan, partner Killik & Co, said: "if it is not an any positive result out of Europe, it could be any of a rough summer." If politicians have disappeared from the break, the markets will wait. »

Deutsche Bank analysts, said last week that global stocks may plunge as much as 35pc if the crisis in a spiral.

Falls may be exacerbated by low trading during the summer and even the Test Match on Thursday, said Mr. McWilliams. "There is a history of crises from August as the financial crisis of 2007 and the default of 1998, not to mention the August crisis more Russian famous which became the first world war."

He joined a growing chorus of voices for a relapse. A recent Deloitte survey showed that one in three Directors finance of FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 companies estimated that the British economy will fall back into recession.

Mr. McWilliams finished by taking a potshot at David Cameron. He said that the Prime Minister could take advantage of the crisis to renegotiate links of the United Kingdom with Europe, which could bring down the Coalition and an early election of the force. "Much could happen in the coming weeks," he concludes.

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IMF warns markets "not persuaded" eurozone leaders can resolve the debt crisis and prevent damage to the global economy

The IMF said that despite not "support of the euro Member States and the ECB, market participants remain convinced that a lasting solution is at hand".

"It would be very expensive for the euro area but also for the economy to delay to tackle the crisis of the sovereign,"said Luc Everaert, head of the political area of the IMF European common Euro."

The IMF said that despite not "support of the euro Member States and the ECB, market participants remain convinced that a lasting solution is at hand".

He said in a staff report that the results of any political decision would be "unpredictable" and that the euro-zone needed money more private in support of the "most vulnerable" of his "still-frail banks."

The Fund has recommended that the European financial stability facility (EFSF) have increased in size and allowed to buy debt on the secondary market, as a means to mitigate the threat of contagion of the peripheral States of the euro area.

He also said the indispensable to the adoption of the much stronger economic governance of the euro area. "We need more not less Europe," said Mr. Everaert.

Markets she said Tuesday, and the fears of mounting that politicians cannot resolve the sliding equities sent eurozone debt crisis Monday. The FTSE 100 gained 0. 65pc, the Germany DAX 1. 1pc, France CAC 1. 2pc, the Spain Ibex 1pc and Italy MIB 1. 9pc.

However, traders said the rebound was lowest in the belief that the liquidation were exaggerated and the fear is that jitters on a dangerous rift in Europe, top of the criticism of the euro Thursday the advance on the Greece can trigger falls further.

The Summit should attempt to complete a second round of aid for the Greece, a value of €110bn, but nations are divided on how to structure it and comments of Angela Merkel, German Chancellor Tuesday that the Summit will not be the last step in the resolution of the debt of the Greece crisis did not help sentiment.

The the euro fell against the dollar, after she said in a joint press conference with the President of Russian Dmitry Medvedev: "additional steps will be necessary and not simply a spectacular event that fixes everything." Which takes political responsibility seriously knows that such a dramatic step will not happen. »

To solve the problems of the Greece once and for all, the euro area need to consider options to reduce its debt and increase its competitiveness, said.

"Europe is unthinkable without the euro, and therefore it is worth of effort responsible for really solve the problems in the same root", she said.

Russian President says financial woes of the euro area is not a fault of the euro, but a result he used by countries to the uneven economy.

"The main euro today is a problem that a strong and respectable currency serves the countries with very different levels of the economy, said Medvedev." "It never happened in the history of humanity."

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Oil could hit $220 a barrel on Libya and Algeria fears, warns Nomura

Barclays Capital said 1m b/d of Libyan output is "shut in", with the other 0.6m at risk. While Saudi Arabia can step in by raising output, this takes time and its oil is not a substitute for Libya's "sweet crude".

The escalating crisis set off further falls on global bourses. Wall Street was down 1pc in early trading and the FTSE 100 fell 1.2pc. The Dow has shed more than 300 points over the past three days to 12,075.

Nomura said a shut-down in both Libya and Algeria would cut global supply by 2.9m b/d and reduce OPEC spare capacity to 2.1m b/d, comparable with levels at the onset of the Gulf War and worse than during the 2008 spike, when prices hit $147.

Both price shocks preceeded – or triggered – a recession in Europe and the US. Fatih Birol, chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said the latest price rise had already become a "serious risk" for the fragile economies of the OECD bloc.

Some analysts fear the underlying picture is worse that officially recognised, doubting Saudi claims of ample spare capacity. A Wikileaks cable cited comments by a geologist for the Saudi oil giant Aramco that the kingdom's reserves had been overstated by 40pc. A second cable cited US diplomats asking whether the Saudis "any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period".

Nomura's report, which does not examine the catastrophic scenario of a full-blown Gulf crisis, said past oil shocks have shown a three-stage pattern, with a final blow-off in prices in the final phase. The current crisis is at stage one.

Surging oil prices create a nasty dilemma for central banks since they are inflationary if caused by robust global growth, but deflationary if caused by a supply crunch that acts as a tax on consuming nations. The big oil exporters tend to save extra revenues from price spikes at first, so the initial effect is to drain global demand.

The current picture contains elements of both, with an added twist of liquidity created by the US Federal Reserve that is leaking into the global system and playing havoc with commodity pricing.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said on Wednesday that the world economy is stong enough to "handle" the oil shock, insisting that central banks "have a lot of experience in managing these things".

The European Central Bank (ECB) responded to the oil spike in July 2008 by raising rates even though Germany and Italy were in recession by then. Nout Wellink, the ECB's Dutch governor, said this had been a policy error.

Circumstances are different this time yet also murky. ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet signalled last month that the bank will "look through" the short-term price hump, but ECB rhetoric has since turned more hawkish. Fed doves will undoubtedly give more weight to the deflationary risks.

Jeremy Leggett, a leader of the UK industry task force on peak oil and energy security, said the Mid-East crisis "shows the extreme fragility of the global system. People don't realise how close we are to a potential precipice if this unrest reaches critical mass in enough OPEC countries. Governments need to draw up emergency plans and get cracking on proactive measures while we still have time," he said.

Charles Robertson at Renaissance Capital said the real concern nagging investors is what will happen in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province, the home of the kingdom's restless Shi'ite minority. The Saudis produce 11.6pc of world output, but a much higher share of exports.

"There is potential for serious tension, and not just among the Shia. High unemployment and the youth bulge means unrest could be country-wide. If Saudi Arabia or Iran are engulfed, we have a serious problem."

On Wednesday Saudi King Abdullah unveiled $11bn of welfare projects for his people.

Energy & Utilities and Oil & Gas vacancies at Telegraph Jobs

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Oil could hit $220 a barrel on Libya and Algeria fears, warns Nomura

Barclays Capital said 1m b/d of Libyan output is "shut in", with the other 0.6m at risk. While Saudi Arabia can step in by raising output, this takes time and its oil is not a substitute for Libya's "sweet crude".

The escalating crisis set off further falls on global bourses. Wall Street was down 1pc in early trading and the FTSE 100 fell 1.2pc. The Dow has shed more than 300 points over the past three days to 12,075.

Nomura said a shut-down in both Libya and Algeria would cut global supply by 2.9m b/d and reduce OPEC spare capacity to 2.1m b/d, comparable with levels at the onset of the Gulf War and worse than during the 2008 spike, when prices hit $147.

Both price shocks preceeded – or triggered – a recession in Europe and the US. Fatih Birol, chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said the latest price rise had already become a "serious risk" for the fragile economies of the OECD bloc.

Some analysts fear the underlying picture is worse that officially recognised, doubting Saudi claims of ample spare capacity. A Wikileaks cable cited comments by a geologist for the Saudi oil giant Aramco that the kingdom's reserves had been overstated by 40pc. A second cable cited US diplomats asking whether the Saudis "any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period".

Nomura's report, which does not examine the catastrophic scenario of a full-blown Gulf crisis, said past oil shocks have shown a three-stage pattern, with a final blow-off in prices in the final phase. The current crisis is at stage one.

Surging oil prices create a nasty dilemma for central banks since they are inflationary if caused by robust global growth, but deflationary if caused by a supply crunch that acts as a tax on consuming nations. The big oil exporters tend to save extra revenues from price spikes at first, so the initial effect is to drain global demand.

The current picture contains elements of both, with an added twist of liquidity created by the US Federal Reserve that is leaking into the global system and playing havoc with commodity pricing.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said on Wednesday that the world economy is stong enough to "handle" the oil shock, insisting that central banks "have a lot of experience in managing these things".

The European Central Bank (ECB) responded to the oil spike in July 2008 by raising rates even though Germany and Italy were in recession by then. Nout Wellink, the ECB's Dutch governor, said this had been a policy error.

Circumstances are different this time yet also murky. ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet signalled last month that the bank will "look through" the short-term price hump, but ECB rhetoric has since turned more hawkish. Fed doves will undoubtedly give more weight to the deflationary risks.

Jeremy Leggett, a leader of the UK industry task force on peak oil and energy security, said the Mid-East crisis "shows the extreme fragility of the global system. People don't realise how close we are to a potential precipice if this unrest reaches critical mass in enough OPEC countries. Governments need to draw up emergency plans and get cracking on proactive measures while we still have time," he said.

Charles Robertson at Renaissance Capital said the real concern nagging investors is what will happen in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province, the home of the kingdom's restless Shi'ite minority. The Saudis produce 11.6pc of world output, but a much higher share of exports.

"There is potential for serious tension, and not just among the Shia. High unemployment and the youth bulge means unrest could be country-wide. If Saudi Arabia or Iran are engulfed, we have a serious problem."

On Wednesday Saudi King Abdullah unveiled $11bn of welfare projects for his people.

Energy & Utilities and Oil & Gas vacancies at Telegraph Jobs

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