Showing posts with label gathers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gathers. Show all posts

Monday, 27 February 2012

Portuguese storm gathers as EU leaders fight over Greece

The FTSE 100 fell 1.1pc and Germany's DAX was off 1pc, while the iTraxx Crossover index measuring credit risk in Europe jumped 30 points to 637. Yields on Italian 10-year debt rose 21 points to 6.08pc.

The worries over Portugal continued to mount even as German Chancellor Angela Merkel backed away from demands for a European austerity commissioner to take control of the Greek budget, averting an explosive clash with Athens.

"We don't want controversial talks, but a discussion that is successful for the Greek people," she said, insisting that Germany's plan was just one many of options.

The change of tack came after Berlin's allies in the northern creditor bloc warned such heavy-handed diplomacy had become offensive and breached the spirit of the EU project.

"You never stoop to insults in politics. It solves nothing," said Austria's Chancellor Werner Faymann. Luxembourg's foreign minister Jean Asselborn said it behoves Europe's most powerful state to display a "little more caution", advising Germany to "watch out" as passions grow stronger.

The dispute overshadowed the summit, intended to promote EU growth and tackle youth unemployment – now 22pc Europe-wide and 51pc in Greece. Talk of growth at a time when EU austerity has entrenched severe slumps across southern Europe has left markets bewildered.

While EU leaders fleshed out a German-inspired "fiscal compact" to police the budgets of EMU states, Finland called it "at best unnecessary and at worst harmful" while Luxembourg deemed it a "waste of time". The pact has been weakened, allowing a breach of the new structural deficit limit of 0.5pc of GDP in a wider range of circumstances.

On Monday night, 25 of the 27 EU nations signed up to the fiscal compact, with the Czech prime minister joining the UK in staying outside the deal.

While German calls for an EU commissar for Greece are not new, the aggressive tone of the draft shocked EU veterans. It stipulated that Athens must give "absolute priority to debt service", "transfer national budgetary sovereignty", and agree to terms that make it impossible for Greece to "threaten lenders with default". Furious Greek leaders rejected the terms as debt servitude.

Analysts have questioned whether Germany deliberately called for conditions that Athens cannot accept, perhaps to force Greece's withdrawal from the euro and set an example to others.

The softening of the German stance does not in itself settle the Greek crisis – even assuming Athens agrees soon to a deal with private creditors for debt relief near 70pc. Greece will almost certainly need a further €15bn on top of the €130bn package in force, yet Mrs Merkel has warned that Germany will not provide any further funds.

Jacques Cailloux from RBS said there would be a chain reaction if the troika halts payments and sets in motion a Greek default and exit from EMU.

"That would the disaster scenario. Those who think this could be contained don't know what they are talking about. There would be extraordinary contagion, as we are already seeing in Portugal, spreading back to Spain, Italy, and France," he said.

Citigroup thinks Portugal's economy will contract by 5.7pc this year and 3.5pc next year, replicating the downward spiral seen in Greece as austerity began to bite.

While Portugal has delivered on its promises, the task may be Sisyphean with a combined public and private debt of 360pc of GDP – 100 percentage points higher than in Greece. Grit alone cannot overcome the same chronic lack of competitiveness.

Europe's leaders have vowed that they will not inflict a "haircut" on Portugal's creditors, insisting that Greece is a "special case". The relentless exodus from Portuguese debt suggests that investors do not believe them.


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Thursday, 7 July 2011

Euro slide gathers pace on the fears of the debt crisis

The currency fell to $1.2997 against the dollar in trade on Tuesday morning, his lowest point in two months, even if it later recovered back losses after U.S. consumer confidence burned in November at the highest level of five months.

The brightest prospects suggest u.s. consumers might be more willing to open their wallets in addition, despite the high unemployment rate.

Agreement of a package of emergency aid of €Ireland stunned by bailing out on its shores, costs 85bn failed to allay the fears of market on the health of the euro area.

Concerns are now focusing on other countries responsible for debt with the Spain Portugal for more in-depth examination.

Governments have seen the cost of soar them loan during the past weeks and bond - yields rewards investors seek to take on the risk - increase again.

Gaps between the Spanish and Italian 10-year bond gives German cue points, which have a strong status, have reached their highest level since the euro was launched in 1999.

The crisis has started the year Greece, who was since a rescue operation last €110bn EU and the IMF, and thorough this month in the Middle fears holders will have to share future costs orchestrated.

An area of concern is that the Spain economy is twice as large as Greece, Ireland and combined Portugal prompting fears about safety net for the €750bn euro area may be almost enough if the country requires that aid.

Similarly, although most analysts view Italy at the lowest risk, the country is now called "too big" failure"and"too big to bail.

The cost of backup most euro-dette area is also on the rise, with five credit default swaps (CDS) - instruments that operate as insurance against a default country - Irish debt place 13 basis points to 6 25pc, which means that it now costs €services to ensure that the 10 million euros worth of bonds Irish.

Even the France, which is considered, along with Germany as one of the more stable members of the euro area is affected, with 5-year CDS amounting 6 points basic 1. 05pc, reflecting concerns about the toll of bailing out weaker economies.

Latest figures show Germany unemployment fell again in November, confirming its status as a powerhouse in the euro area.

The British pound gains as investors seek a safer alternative in the euro area. Sterling has jumped to its highest level since September 20 and was directed against the euro for its biggest monthly gain since January 2009.


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