Monday, 5 December 2011

Utopian Germans risk full-blown EMU depression

"What investors want to know is whether the ECB is ready to stand behind the bond markets because it is not clear who else is going to buy €350bn of Italian debt over the next year," said Hans Redeker from Morgan Stanley. "If we had seen a credible government in Italy six months ago it might have turned market sentiment, but it may be too late now.

"What is really dangerous is that the market is losing confidence in France even though Paris is delivering a €65bn austerity package. We are nearing the point where French bond yields will force rating agencies to downgrade France," he said.

The Swiss bank Pictet said Europe is sliding into a catastrophic slump with its policy mix of fiscal austerity, a credit crunch, and the lack of any lender of last resort. "The German recipe for solving the crisis is geared towards deleveraging all economic agents simultaneously. This is utopian. This policy will brutally depress aggregated demand. It is the route that led towards the Depression of the 1930s," it said.

Mr Weidmann is unrelenting. He said that the ECB is prohibited by treaty law from acting as a lender-of-last resort for states, whether directly or covertly through the International Monetary Fund.

What chilled markets most was his comment that Italy's bond yields are "no big deal" and that the country must sort out its own problems. "Monetary financing will set the wrong incentives. Fixing an interest rate for a country is certainly not compatible with our mandate," he said.

Many investors had assumed the ECB would step in to cap Italian yields once Silvio Berlusconi had the left office, giving Mr Monti a "dowry" of lower borrowing costs to help him shake up the labour markets as demanded the EU authorities.

"The markets want a quick win and the ECB is not willing to give it to them," said David Bloom from HSBC. "It is going to take us to the edge the abyss first. There is a lot of 'Game Theory' going on. But this can go awry if the debt cancer spreads."

Mrs Merkel is giving mixed signals. She said Europe was facing its "hardest hour" but there was no hint that Germany is ready to shoulder further debt risks. Days earlier she shot down proposals from Germany's five "Wise Men" for a temporary sinking fund to mutualise €2.3 trillion of eurozone bonds.

Mrs Merkel's version of "Fiskalunion" is not what is meant in the rest of Europe. It is essentially a "stability union" where Brussels acquires greater powers to police the deficits of sinner states.

Berlin wants limited EU changes under the Lisbon Treaty's "ratchet clause"– avoiding the need for ratification – to make it easier to impose discipline, including an EU "austerity commissioner" with powers to administer delinquent nations.

Mrs Merkel may wish to go further – and her finance minister Wolfgang Schauble is a diehard integrationist – but her hands are tied by Germany's Basic Law, the anchor of German democracy, and the constitutional court. The judges ruled in September that the fiscal powers of the Bundestag may not be transferred to EU bodies.

"There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit... then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary," said chief justice Andreas Vosskuhle.

The pro-European wing of the CDU is floating plans for changes to the Basic Law to allow for a quantum leap to a European superstate. This is vehemently opposed by Bavaria's Social Christians, and part of the CDU itself. It would require a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament. There is a high likelihood that German voters would reject the plan. It would in any case take two or three years to push through.

Yet the crisis is escalating by the day. Moody's said it is not clear whether Europe's EFSF bail-out machinery can "fund itself in the markets at low cost", raising doubts about its ability to contain the debt crisis. The rating agency said plans to leverage the EFSF to €1 trillion have come to little, leaving it with just €266bn after funding Ireland, Portugal and Greece. "This limits the EFSF's role as an important pillar of the euro area crisis management strategy," it said.

There is nothing yet standing behind the system as Europe spins wildly into the eye of the storm.


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Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Rise of markets despite the Libya and the Japan

Index Nikkei 225 Index of the Japan reference have increased more than 3pc on opening transactions, to 9,518.81 as the country that it has made progress in the stabilization of the reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power.

The FTSE 100 index increased 1. 3pc - 71 points at 5,789.65 - despite the launch of operation dawn Odyssey against in Libya Saturday.

The day after in America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 178.01 points or 1. 5pc to 12,036.53 after that traders simply geopolitical fears and instead congratulates $39bn (£ 23. 9bn) OPA of the AT & T for T-Mobile USA, which is the property of Deutsche Telekom. Success, the agreement would be the biggest deal in the world this year and plu German of a decade.

Telecoms, banks and miners led a gathering of the market in the world. The Japan markets had been closed for a holiday Monday, but the MSCI index of Asian stocks outside the Japan increased 1. 4pc in the news of successes at the Fukushima nuclear engineering.

The yen also weakened to 81.13 against the dollar following intervention by the Group of seven nations.

Calm on equity markets was not shopkeepers in petroleum reflected. Future Brent Crude rose $1.33 to $115.26 Monday with experts warning that the Allied Libya shares were likely to push prices even higher.

Francisco Blanch, head of research of the products at BofA Merrill Lynch in New York, believe that the price rally to provide as high as $ 140 per barrel on global concerns. Mr. Blanch said Bloomberg that Brent could hit this level in the three to four months. "We are going missing Libyan oil for some time", he said.

Commerzbank said: "a return at the beginning of the Libya for the world oil market is little probable, which should support prices long-term".


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Roll-out LSE overwhelmed by teething troubles

Execution only brokers like Selftrade yesterday warned that their sites Web wasn't showing fair price then that TD Waterhouse said a technical issue between the London Stock Exchange and one of its data providers has been affecting levels of loss of the stop on UK stocks. Selftrade and TD Waterhouse said they work with their intermediary and the London Stock Exchange to resolve the problem.

The London Stock Exchange migrated its faster system trading platform provided by Millennium, Monday. But the system hit by pips, with bidding closing Tuesday, the delayed by 42 seconds.

Market insiders suggested that current issues lies with data providers.

But the close data vendor, data sources interactive think that the problem arose from Millennium roll-out of the London Stock Exchange. They added that they work closely with customers to solve the problem.

A Thomson Reuters spokesperson said there were some specific issues related to Millennium LSE feeds and works with the London Stock Exchange to resolve.

A spokesman LSE said that they were satisfied with the migration, taking into account the size of the project, and the comments of the participants had so far been good.

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The upcoming week in business and economy: 21 Nov - 25 Nov

Results of the year:Diploma

Interim results:The foundation of Trust, Mitie Invista

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:CBI Conference

Meetings:Worldspreads Group (AGA)

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Tuesday, November 22

Homeserve, nicknamed the "fifth emergency" because it offers insurance to national crises, update the city on his own trauma when it offers its interim results. Last month the company that sells products such as repair of boiler cover, said that it had suspended all telesales and marketing activities after a review by Deloitte identified problems with the way in which they were sold, sending its shares plunging.

Some linked sales activities began again, but there is still a possibility of an investigation of the Financial Services Authority (FSA).

Henry Carver, Peel Hunt analyst, said: "the key questions are: how much time will it take to absorb the impact of the recent actions, what will be the result of the control of the FSA to calls of"unsatisfactory"sales" until October 31 and what discount is appropriate for the action now? ""

• Investors will look for an update on how changes in meeting room and property issues hit results of the year at Mitchell & Butlers. The remains of pub without a Chief Executive and the insiders group admit majority shareholder, Joe Lewis has not efforts to take control of the company have received the operational part of the company. Last week, Bob Ivell, Executive Chairman, pushed by a restructuring of the management, but investors want to see a leader full-time in place as soon as possible. Numis analyst Doug Jack has forecast profits before taxes for the year down 11pc following the Elimination of the bars to 333, with sales as resembling 2 FP7 in the period.

Results of the year:Enterprise Inns, GW Pharmaceuticals, Mitchell & Butlers, Paragon Group of Companies

Interim results:Major group of yellow, Carlco, CML Microsystems, De La Rue, Ffastfill, Hamworthy, Halma, Homeserve, intermediate Capital Group, KCom, Telecom Plus, Torotrak

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:Public finance data

Meetings:International Ferro metals (AGA), Smiths Group (AGA)

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Wednesday, November 23

Johnson Matthey should describe how the global economic uncertainty is affecting manufacturers when it reports interim results this week. FTSE 100 produces about one third of catalytic converters in vehicles in the world and its performance is closely linked to the progression of motor vehicle manufacturers.

In June, Johnson Matthey warned of the rising prices of rare earth metals and a slowdown in car production caused by the Japanese earthquake. However, revenues increased 14pc 27pc and profits.

Analysts are forecasting this week that the company will post another increase of profits before tax. The consensus forecast for profits before exceptional pre tax for the six months to 30 September is £ 193.7 m, mainly in advance the £ 164.3 m in 2010.

Adam Collins to Liberum Capital said: "Q1 profit before tax to provisional summer management was 98 million pounds sterling and during the second quarter, a sequential improvement of profits there, we believe, supported by the closure of the plant of catalysts for Brussels in July and accelerating us class 8 truck production.".

Results of the year:Avon rubber, compass, Daily Mail & Trust General

Interim results:Assura, Hyder Consulting, Johnson Matthey, Mackay Securities, QinetiQ, Sepura, United Utilities

Trading Update:French Connection

Economics:Mortgage approvals MPC minutes, financial policy Committee, BBA

Meetings:Greatland gold (AGA), Geong International (AGA)

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Thursday, November 24

• There are a few retailers feeling the squeeze more products electrical stores of expensive and often unnecessary gadgets, and Dixons is no exception. However, investors hope that she can confirm that this is better than Comet, which has just been unloaded by Kesa, and Best Buy Europe, which is currently closed by Carphone Warehouse. Credit Switzerland predicted that sales as resembling the United Kingdom will be hosted a fall 10pc in the first quarter to a fall in FP7 for the whole of the first half. Consensus forecasts are for a loss before tax of first-half underlying in the range of 29 m £ 35 million pounds. For the same period last year, the company reported a loss before underlying tax of £ 6.9 m.

Antofagasta, minor copper, gives a third quarter update. The market expected on how its Esperanza new mine at the Chile performs an update. In the first half of the year, Esperanza produced 29 300 tonnes of copper. The company will have to make good inroads in recent months to reach its target of producing up to 100,000 tons of copper on the site throughout the year, said analysts at the evolution of securities.

Results of the year:F. c. & income & Capital investment, future, Grainger, Phytopharm, Thomas Cook

Interim results:Casts, Dixons, helical Bar brewery, available detail, Pennant, Young & Co

Trading Update:Antofagasta

Economics:First revision of growth Q3 data of investment by the company, CBI industrial trends survey

Meetings:Finsbury food (AGA)

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Friday, November 25

Results of the year: Scottish Investment Trust.

Interim results:Fuller, Smith and Turner, Omega Diagnostics, Trent Severn

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:No application

Meetings:Fusion IP (AGA)


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Tuesday, 29 November 2011

U.S. debt deadlock étincelles new fears of market

To the United States, the Commission join on the reduction of the deficit still works to cut trillions of dollars from the budget despite the breakdown of Thanksgiving.  Photo: GETTY

The impasse between the Republicans and the Democrats warring on efforts to find a $ 1.2 billion (£ 767bn) savings came in as the rose over $ 15 billion US national debt.


According to reports, the rival parties were preparing to announce today that they could not agree on the packaging of increases in taxes or cutting spending.


The deadline for an agreement of the so-called supercommittee was Wednesday, but the Commission was asked to put forward a plan at the end of today to give time to Congressional Budget Office to assess the real effects on the deficit.


Failure to strike an agreement would trigger automatic cuts of an equivalent amount in 2013 of spending for Defense and other government agencies.


The standoff is reminiscent of delays and arguments in July to raise U.S. debt ceiling. A agreement of last minute was not struck, the United States would have technically violated.


Disputes, was the first evidence of the vacuum of leadership that has frightened the United States and Europe markets.


Yusuf Heusen, a merchant of sale at IG Index, said: "News that the United States have hit a deadlock on recognizes budget cuts wishes to remind the traders of the last time legislators an impasse in the summer and the subsequent fallout that followed.".


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Rolls-Royce connect £ billion deal in China

The transaction will be one of the largest unveiled to David Cameron in China visit and comes after a difficult week for the engineering firm.

"The agreement is a contract to supply and will be spread over several years, as most contracts of Rolls-Royce," said initiated the delegation in Beijing.There are no details on Rolls-Royce industries could have been awarded the contract, or buyer .the China is a purchaser of products aviation, marine and energy company, and demand nearly 3,000 new aircraft over the next 10 to 15 years could create a market of (£ remained) of $65bn for Jet engines.

Royal Dutch Shell should also sign an agreement important Tuesday, which could come in the form of a production sharing contract with PetroChina jointly develop a shale gas project in the province of the Sichuan.Si two wells show potential, Shell could invest up to billion $ per year in the development of research, according to Simon Henry, his chief financial officer.


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The refuge of sovereign obligations

There are many investors lessons to learn from the financial crisis, but one of the most beneficial is world how interconnected markets are, particularly when it comes to finance. No country or market is isolated by events, even if they take place thousands of kilometers away from the other side of the world more.

And, three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the city fund managers still have nightmares. Mike Turner, the Manager of the Aberdeen Multi-Asset 578 million Fund of £, said: "my worst fear would be that the euro begins to break." It is not only have an impact on the European financial system, but the global financial system is highly integrated, and it will have consequences for growth throughout the world. »

Mr. Turner has already taken a defensive position with its investment portfolio and in all classes of assets including shares, bonds and alternatives, such as infrastructure funds managed by other fund managers, the United Kingdom is the exhibition of dominant countries.

But, here at home, the Manager of Aberdeen is still very cautious in its Outlook. Speaking on the last video of your money their hands, he explained: "things are very rough at the present time with regard to the macroeconomic situation." This is why we focus on performance, because we believe that the performance will be more and more a larger component of total return over time. In fact, reinvestment of dividends or compound finally cash flow up to, and the power of this preparation is important. »

One of the largest investments plays by Mr. Turner, in large part on the performance of prospective dividend, is managed by HSBC and 3i, infrastructure funds even if the Government reduced to date struck many planned projects "big ticket".

The Manager of Aberdeen also believes that the lack of government money could be a boon to the Fund as his. "Public finance are so strapped at this time that the Government consider more private finance source to fill this gap."

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