Wednesday 11 May 2011

Irish bank flight quickens despite EU rescue

Irish central bank data showed losses of €40bn (£34bn) in deposits from the key banks in December, compared with €27bn a month earlier. Over the past year Irish lenders have haemorrhaged €110bn, equal to 60pc of gross national product. "Would I want to leave money in an institution where I don't know who is making the rules?" said Gary Jenkins from Evolution Securities.

On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's cut Ireland's sovereign rating one notch to A-, citing a "weaker economic outlook, reduced prospects for bank earnings and funding difficulties of domestic banks". It also downgraded Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish, Anglo Irish and Irish Life, questioning "both the ability and willingness of the Irish government" to keep propping up lenders. The quartet remain "highly reliant on central bank funding" and have been unable to raise market funds despite state guarantees.

Investors are watching warily as Ireland prepares for an election on February 25. Leading opposition party Fine Gael said it will unpick parts of the EU-IMF bail-out for Ireland, threatening to "impose losses on bondholders who lent to collapsed domestic banks".

"Those who lent recklessly as well as those who borrowed recklessly should share the burden," said Michael Noonan, the party's finance chief. He exhorted the EU to cut the interest rate on rescue loans from 5.8pc to levels nearer the EU's borrowing cost of 2.6pc

Fine Gael is likely to form a coalition with Ireland's Labour Party, which is even tougher on creditors. All major parties are losing votes to Gerry Adam's Sinn Fein as it taps popular fury with calls for the IMF "to go home and take their money with them".

It is unclear whether EU leaders will agree on changes to the size and scope of €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) this week. German officials say they will prevent the fund carrying out "soft debt restructuring" for Greece and other stricken states by lending them money to buy back their own bonds cheaply on the open market.

Yet, German and EU officials are working quietly on a formula that would allow the EFSF to lend its full headline figure of €440bn rather than just €250bn under current rules needed to anchor its AAA rating. This is easier said than done. It might compel Italy, Belgium, Spain and other non-AAA states to put up more money they can ill-afford. Critics in the City already view the EFSF bonds as akin to "CDOs", of sub-prime infamy. Any tinkering with the mechanism would be watched with a jaundiced eye.

Diplomats say Germany is dragging its feet on the EFSF in to extract concessions from debtor states on budgets, labour rules and pension reform. What Berlin means by a "eurozone economic government" is not a debt union or fiscal transfers but a mechanism for enforcing discipline. This treads on very sensitive sovereign toes in Rome, Madrid or even Paris.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition faces regional elections in coming weeks and fears that the German people will baulk at further loan packages unless spendthrift states are seen to suffer hairshirt treatment.

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