Friday 6 May 2011

Us unemployment: what the economists say

Job seekers speak to recruiters during a job hunting camp training in San Mateo, California.  Photo: GETTY

"November U.S. employment report was a painful reality for those who hope that a significant acceleration in economic activity was underway. Increase of 39,000 in Payroll employment is extremely disappointing after gain among October.


"Overall, data strongly support our view for a long time that the unemployment rate will remain at 9 5pc or higher at least the next two years and GDP will increase much 2pc." "It is compatible with the Federal Reserve kept very loose monetary policy.


"The survey of household employment data were unexpectedly poor this month..." An increase in the labour force maintained unemployment decline, but an actual increase in the unemployment rate was avoided so far. Recent news from market work generally showed an improvement, but this report is a clear break in this trend.


"The November payroll report is a bucket of cold water intrusive and seems to fly in most other recent data showing the dynamic economy collection"


"Retail jobs fell 28,000, after an increase of 13 000 in October, for the hiring of holidays had not followed with the normal seasonal factors. But it should be noted that retail jobs in October and November - before correction of seasonal - total, up to 367,000 last year. For retailers have hired more until the holiday season than the last one, but that they hired also earlier, boosting October at the expense of November.


"Figure today confirms certainly the United States economic recovery will be painfully slow moving forwards in 2011." Fragile dollar responds instantly to the bad news, weakened by almost 1pc in the euro.


"Given that the United States are trying to spend its way out of recession, its economy has really need to begin to pick up." A resumption of the snail-like could prevent the Government to pay for this strategy, causing serious problems in the long term. »


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