Nervousness is part of a trend already far certainties in the pre-2000 bull market fairness towards an investment landscape more foggy in which investors are vying for around three sometimes contradictory results: capital safety in an unstable world. a decent income in a near zero interest rate environment. and growth in a context of deleverage and austerity.
The graph shows how the investment world has changed over the past decade.In 2000, is there a single set of ville.Environ 8 £ £ 10 invested in mutual funds of UK investment by private investors had visited shares, with approximately £ 1 obligations and the same thing in balanced funds.
Advance quick nine years for 2009 and a very different picture emerges. Last year, less than one-third of net retail Fund UK sales has been in the stock market investment funds.A larger proportion is entered into obligations, while much of the rest went in managed funds back and absolute cautious.This is not only an image of UK.Chiffres compiled by Citigroup show that the capital contributions have been nothing write home throughout Europe (in fact they are negative almost everywhere in the UK) while bond funds continue to attract money despite increasing fears to the periphery area euro.Le big winner was balanced funds.
What it tells us, I think, is that investors are forced to cash and assets risky policy persistence low interest rates but, despite a return to form of markets for the last 18 months, the pain of the "lost decade" and recent volatility means that, for most people, shares remain a step too far.
The money goes actions is largely hunting offered by the emerging markets, perceived growth confirms the conduct adversarial thinking asset allocation at this time. Income and growth at the same time want their cake and eat hypocrite security investors desire.This leads to some pretty blind investment with not much attention to which assets currently offer the best value.
There are some technical reasons why investment flows should have changed to less risky.Matching assets liabilities from pension funds and the ageing of the average member of pension plans are part of the story - like the higher capital requirements in the insurance sector.But something also less logical and more worrying seems cours.Encore once, investors seem to be hunting performance in a piece of pink-tinted extrapolation, implying that last year's winners will inevitably be too earlier next year.
In 2000, classes of assets registering United Kingdom over the past five years were residential property, hedge funds and European shares.It is perhaps surprising that flows of funds should have been so biaisées.Faire jump 2009 and registering assets were bonds, gold, gilts, the German bunds and US Treasury bonds.Guess where the money will now.
We know what happened to those taken in the mania of equity, 10 years 10 years ago, therefore, on all the money currently sinking in precious metals, government bonds and emerging markets shares, it is not unreasonable to ask what would be the performance.
History shows that the best way to invest is against the tide but not aveuglément.Flux funds are a part of history, because the ultimate potential returns determinant is the price that you pay the départ.Dans if shares of emerging markets, the multiple of the earnings on which the average trades, share is bang on world markets in General, according to the calculations of Morgan Stanley.
When Japanese stocks reached a peak in 1989 it is three times the world average, while technology stocks in 2000 were twice chers.Actions, emerging and developed countries are much better value than obligations of the Government - which is all that money flows tell us.
Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity Investment Managers.Les investment opinions are own
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