Thursday 7 July 2011

The power of the people takes the economic scene, for better or for worse

Second, it is an early salute in Barack Obama re-election campaign. The time, like the United States early in the season (with gas 90 c a gallon more expensive than last year) of conduct is not a coincidence.

But the extent of the initial fall in the price of oil have shown the risk of suggesting to the markets that you may know something that they do not.

After a week in which the prospects for growth are are seen once again in most large economies, the move displayed more than a hint of desperation on the battle to resume growth.

The brazen Act of political positioning last week was supported by Nick Clegg an idea frankly ludicrous to distribute shares in banks nationalized all citizens.

The populist logic is obvious. We have in large part banks, then why not formalizes the situation with a stock certificate. Unfortunately, common sense stop there.

First of all, it would be impractical, requiring the holdings of each Government so that, assuming that the shares never rise above the price at which the Government has taken his game, a State may reimburse until each of us keeps the difference.

The amounts involved are likely to be low, so the political gain would be insignificant and the enthusiasm of the banks to communicate with millions of shareholders again and largely disengaged would be limited.

During this time, the cost of administration of the plan would be bad value for precisely the people receiving the actions in their guise as taxpayers. Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul.

In addition, it is implausible to think that such a regime would be more successful than the privatizations of Margaret Thatcher in forging a democracy with the shareholder. Psst, Don ' t bother saying Sid. He has lost interest last time and this is his attempt to be.

Moreover, the power of the people is to have a more direct influence on Arab markets for investment, with spring and, more recently, the demonstrations in the streets of Athens.

A Greek default would be certainly inevitable without the explosion of outrage because the chronic lack of competitiveness means that there is no hope of growth never get out of the abyss. But the refusal of the people to suffer in silence means that the attempt would be made.

Perhaps the most irresistible popular movement, however, is the desire of the Chinese people to maintain the rate of growth which resulted in millions of them out of poverty in the past 30 years. The fears of the Government for social stability if this growth rate slows means that 8pc annual salary increases will remain the standard for years to come.

The power of the people means disinflation China's influence is historical.

Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity International investment. The views expressed are his own.

tomrstevenson@fil.com
Twitter: @ tomstevenson63


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