Oil to over $ 105? Analysts make their predictions

Jeff Currie, Goldman, head of commodities research said Monday he expected oil to break through $ 105 a barrel sometime in 2011, citing as the main driver of supply constraints.

Goldman crystal ball proved accurate in the past, correctly predicted in 2005 prices may undergo a "super-spike" $ 105 a barrel. It was in an era where gross rated $ 55, and such prediction was well above the consensus.

But others agree last forecast Currie? Here's what some analysts have said in the last month.

UBS, said the market is still "feeling its way" in determining what should be the right oil prices. Despite these last rises, it is still $80-$90 a barrel is justified and raised its forecast of $ 79 to $ 80 December 2011 $85 per barrel. His most recent research, said:

We continue to see as well provided market but also note that prices are now based less on fundamentals and more sentiment and momentum within specific limits. We are seeing a floor of approximately $60 / bbl by OPEC and while we would step exclude prices hitting $100 a barrel, as some suggest, we doubt strongly sustainability of such a move.

Commerzbank mentioned the Alaska oil leak in its latest research and said: "" about 600 thousand barrels of oil per day are currently absent of supply, which could be reflected in a fall in us inventories accordingly."

However, it is satisfied that the price of oil will not significantly affected by the event, saying:

"As the General market sentiment remains optimistic and investor interest high, the oil prices should not come under significant pressure." Demand growth should facilitate slightly in the coming year, which implies for the oil price in the medium and long term that everything cannot grow forever. »

Barcap oil settle about $85 in 2011, with prizes for the year and forecast to reach $135 per barrel in "long term". He said in its latest research:

The upside surprise world oil demand has continued and included an additional dam lot more strong that Chinese oil demand and revision rising us oil consumption.

The combustion of the surplus stocks continue to its full swing, and U.S. commercial inventory surplus total higher than the average of five years is just 65.9 million barrels, levels lowest in eight months and about 46 million barrels below the peak reached in mid-September. So our forecast of price risks continue to build toward the head at the request of positive surprises continues.

Unlike some competitors, Morgan Stanley believes oil will test $100 barrier:

We anticipate that oil markets strengthen from this year, underlying increase in oil prices has the capacity to fallen reserve levels 4 Randle barrels per day at year-end (back to 2008 levels). We look so prices remain high in 2011, $100 tests.

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