My Mushaima said Wednesday that demonstrators had "the right to appeal using the Iran" If the Saudi military units to interfere in the fight. Tanks were seen crossing the roadway of 17 miles from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain on Tuesday.
"These were supposed to be Bahrain tanks, returning from Kuwait: this is not a credible story," said Siras Abi Ali, an expert in the Gulf at the level of the risk analysis Exclusive group.
He said that the result at Bahrain will set the model for events across the border. "There is no positive consequence of this for Saudi Arabia." If Bahrain offer of concessions, the Shia Saudi demand similar concessions. Are they cracking down, they could uplift. These people do not want to live in the House of Saud, "he says.
Saudi Arabia activists have called on Facebook for a "day of Rage" on 11 March, despite the lashing sentence to protest Street. An appeal similar to arms in Syria fact long fire because people were afraid, and the security forces the stifled in the egg. "We will closely monitor how many people are, and how far to go, their requirements, see", said Mr. Abi Ali.
Saudi King Abdullah has little latitude. Its own legitimacy comes from members of the Wahhabi clergy, who refuse any compromise with the Shiites. It is 87 and in poor health, raising the prospect of a fight of favourable looming succession within the line hard Minister Prince Nayef. It would crush any protest. The monarchy sought to save time by spending an additional amount of $36bn (£ 22bn) on welfare and wages, but political patronage may hit the wrong note at this stage.
Whatever hope in the West, Mr. Abi Ali said the Middle East is now in the vortex of several revolts to create turmoil for years and destabilize the supply of oil for a long time. "The Arab world will begin to behave like the Swiss," he said.
Slide in the Libya in the civil war has already reduced deliveries of oil by 1 m barrels per day (BPD), cutting in the margin of safety of the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the Saudis had covered the short-fall even if Saudi Arabia heavy oil is a poor substitute for the "sweet" of the Libya crude oil.
However, analysts suspect the Kingdom had already increased profitability 9 m before barrels of disturbances in Libya and did not add much net offer. There is a debate is raging about whether if the Saudi oil giant aramco can increase yields by 3 m bpd if necessary, as claimed. While the two new fields came flow adding 2 m bpd since the oil shock of 2008, "attrition" on old fields has offset this. "We believe that they are nearly at full capacity,"said an analyst."."
Global reserve capacity may in fact be less than 4 m bpd and perhaps as low as 2 m. during this time, the demand for oil from China alone increased by 850 m bpd last year.
HELIMA Croft at Barclays Capital said the longer Libya, the most damaging crisis continues it would supply to long term. Foreign companies have evacuated staff and may be reluctant to restart operations until the dust settles.
The rebel leaders of Benghazi are considering to investigate oil contracts, reserving the right to renegotiate the conditions in accordance with the "will of the people in the street".
Ms. Croft said foreign oil companies will not sink large sums of money in Libya until it is clear, what will emerge from the cauldron of tribal divisions. A plan for $billion of investments of oil by BP, Shell, Oasis and others over the next three years is in ruins. "With the disintegration of a stable political regime in Libya, we consider the major part of projects as being extremely unlikely to proceed at the time, or even not at all," she said.
Fatih Birol, the IEA Economist ' schief, warned that investment in fresh fields across the Middle East "may be delayed for years." The era of cheap oil is gone. »
The Libyan crisis presented an oil crunch which was likely to occur within three years, given the relentless decline in non-OPEC output in the North Sea and the Mexico.
While the world can cope with the loss of Libyan crude for now, the stakes will be rise sharply, if a country more succumbs and explode off the coast of graphics if the monarchies of the Gulf are losing their grip.
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