Despite sounding rockets as something Robert Robinson might say on Call My Bluff in the 1970s, rumours is an investment technique.
Derived from network of the ship, which the sailors would be together to share the latest gossip at sea, rumours refers to all qualitative information that better investors combine their scorecard with calculation to evaluate an investment. It's gossip and information of these in knowledge, but also on the personal observations and that investors escape and deporting the tyres.
Rumours was popularized by Philip Fisher, pioneers of modern investment techniques who wrote in the 1950s on the importance of the collection of information from all possible sources in a work on the analysis of the investment shares and Profits rare. Fisher inspired by Warren Buffett, and he has had an influence key on the Peter Lynch of fidelity, Director of the Magellan Fund between 1977 and 1990.
Fisher used rumors when he alighted on Motorola, at the time where a humble radio manufacturer. The value of his stake increased 20 times more than two decades. Lynch was too convinced of the importance of tapping into its own and other personal experiences companies, invested in: "whenever you shop at a store, eat a hamburger or purchase of new sunglasses that you get a valuable contribution." While browsing around you can see what sells best and what is not. "I was reminded of the importance of the rumours a week or there when I had the misfortune to fly with British Airways of Edinburgh, Gatwick. Like most travel war stories, he seems more fun that it fades into memory. At the time, I and my fellow travelers were fuming.
I did that with all the details though a quick search of Google find a host of articles fairly accurate describing the bizarre story of Captain attempting to flee before a red arrows display closes airport, a mobile phone would have fallen on to the tarmac of a window on the cockpit and a delay of four years and a half hour to find a replacement driver.
Rumors of this story is less to do with the actions of a driver in haste, but rather with the failure of BA to tell us at any point what was going on. to make any serious attempt to ease our discomfort or let us aircraft; We offer compensation or even only a good apology; or answer my questions aircraft and since on Twitter.
My attempt to communicate with BA using social networking shows how rumours is potentially a much more powerful force in the 21st century when Fisher and Lynch used in the 20th. Would get the choose a business that you are interested, it is a simple case today that he used when information is more closely supervised.
When I was in the research to see if BA had taken the trouble to respond to my tweets, I had the opportunity to see what everyone thinks of our flagship carrier. To be fair to BA, while I was not not only complain its service, there are many others describing the happy experiences of unexpected and similar upgrades. And this is the danger of an excessive dependence on the extrapolation of the experiences, what might be described as rumours of first-hand. I could feel the same way on the airline, but I would be unwise to stop of the investment on my only experience.
Other aspects of rumours - in addressing society suppliers, customers and competitors - remain an essential element of the 360-degree research which implies good active management of a portfolio of investments. In fact, it is one of the main differences between active and passive investment and a reason why active funds represent more than Tracker. In a market globalized really looking at a business at all levels is not free.
One of my colleagues is just China, where he spent a week trying to find out what was behind the wheel of the price today. He came to believe that a slowdown in China (to curb inflation in the country) could be bad news for the whole complex products and returned with a more nuanced view. The prospects for copper (it's good, there is a huge housing shortage) is very different from that of nickel (this is bad, the Chinese have obtained very hard to produce this very cheap). As the correct definition, not bluffing Show of Robert Robinson could have read: rumours - an essential part of the Toolkit for an investor.
Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity International investment. The views expressed are his own. Twitter: @ tomstevenson63
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