Tuesday, 31 May 2011

TMX Group: Profile of Canadian partner of the LSE

Headquartered in Toronto with offices in Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver, TMX Group owns and operates the Toronto Stock Exchange, founded in 1852, as well as the TSX Venture Exchange.

Also, it owns or holds interests in exchange for natural gas from the Canada of Boston Options Exchange, Shorcan, Equicom and other TMX Group companies provide trading markets, clearing facilities, data products and other services.

1852: Toronto Stock Exchange was officially founded on October 25, 1852, thanks to a resolution adopted by 24 men that have gathered at the Masonic Hall in Toronto. The commercial list consists of 18 titles.

1977: Toronto Stock Exchange launches the first system worldwide computer assisted Trading. The TSE 300 Composite index is also launching.

1997: Toronto Stock Exchange trading floor will close and the Exchange becomes the largest stock exchange in North America to choose a commercial without soil, virtual environment.

2000: The Toronto Stock Exchange became a for-profit company.

2001: Toronto Stock Exchange completes the acquisition of the Canadian Venture Exchange, renamed the scholarship of TSX Venture Exchange in 2002. S & P/CDNX index launched on 10 December. Renamed index S & P/TSX Venture Composite index in May 2002.

2002: Standard and poor assumes management of the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite index may 1. It was renamed the S & P/TSX Index Composite. In September, TSX files preliminary prospectus for initial public offering of its common shares.

2005: In December, for the first time on the Toronto Stock Exchange top 1 trillion dollars for the year.

2007: December 10, Montréal and TSX Group stock exchange announces an agreement to combine organizations to create TMX Group

2008: May 1st, the combination of TSX Group and Montréal Exchange is complete.

2009: May 7, TMX Group acquired 19.9% EDX London Limited, the London Stock Exchange, equity derivatives business.

2010:February 10, Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange sign an MOU with the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

September 20: TMX Group announced that the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange sign an MOU with the Oslo Bors.

2011: February 8: TMX Group confirms that it is in talks with London Stock Exchange Group regarding a potential merger to create leading advanced international exchange.

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The truth behind the popular adage markets "sell in may".

Sharp last week price falls were a reminder that the summer can be a difficult time for investors Photo: AP

Not surprising that after Glencore, trader more products of the world, publishes his prospectus of the oil price, silver, copper, cotton, and many other raw fell.


And a breakdown of what it was. The price of Tin fell more FP7 last Thursday. Silver, which has soared on the coat tails of gold, has lost about a quarter of its value in a stark reminder that commodity prices retreats can be you fast. The price of oil has suffered its largest fall of ever day in dollar terms.


There are many good reasons why commodities should have marked a pause to breathe. Price of entry are self-correcting to some extent, so should be expected that rising energy, metals and food in the last months would result in sales of gasoline falls to the United Stateslower than expected GDP in the first quarter, both sides of the Atlantic, worse that he feared figures without employment and oil stocks higher.


In the emerging world, which is the main source of global growth, rising inflation triggered a monetary tightening cycle which will inevitably be retain developing economies. And that begins to appear at the doors of the German plant, where the levels are lower than expected.


Your emollient President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet on interest rates Europe is contributing to (although it back-pedalled a little Friday). A falling dollar makes prices more expensive at the nonamericans, so it often raises prices lower.


The indiscriminate nature of the price falls also points to a generalised speculative foam blowing. With near record levels of optimism on the raw materials markets, liquidation of a pretty crowded trade was on the cards.


Despite fluctuations of this week, I think that the structural case for commodities remains strong. Share of world consumption of energy in China should increase of 10pc there is ten years to 25pc in 10 years. We are in the midst of a fundamental change in the balance between supply and demand for products which conceals the most cyclical factors at play last week.


That said, the trade-off between risk and reward continuous gets progressively less favourable plu the redevelopment in the price of raw materials. There is little doubt that 2003 was best time for sowing on raw that 2011, even if high real may be months or even years of absence.


Sharp last week price falls were, however, a reminder that the summer may be a moment difficult for investors, although as difficult as the popular adage "sell in May and disappear" could suggest. In a moment to idle last week, I decided to take in looking at the numbers behind this.


I did so by monitoring the performance of the FTSE 100 in the 1920s, dividing each year in May to September, summer period and an October to winter April. Overall, sell in May has worked to be a sensible strategy. Moving cash in the summer and to return to the market in winter could have paid during the period of 20 years by a significant amount. An investment of 100 books in the British market in 1991 would have pushed to £ 162 for a buy and hold Investor and £ 190 for someone following the sale in the method of May.


It is the theory.


In practice, I think that many investors could work. First, 10 20 summers saw the rise of the market (by up to 18pc in best year). Pass next to these gains would have been extremely painful and the temptation to abandon huge strategy. Second, the transactional cost of moving the market twice a year would have excluded a large part of all the benefits. Finally, the figures are strongly biased by the bearish market 2000-2003, in which most of the damage happened during the summers of 2001 and 2002. Strip the out and during periods of the approach only worked.


Purchase and sale in the season and with a giant as an indicator of otherwise market flotation are superficially attractive approaches, but in most cases, reality is messier than theory. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.


tomrstevenson@fil.com


Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity International investment. The views are his own. Twitter@tomstevenson63.


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The week ahead: economic data UK company results - February 14, 2011 to February 18, 2011

Full-year results

Dialight, Fidessa, SVG Capital

Interim results

No announcement

Bargaining update

No announcement

Economy

Trade balance China's answer to European Ministers of finance

Meetings

F. c. & Commercial Property Trust (EGM), Hirco (AGM)

• Intercontinental Hotels will present results of 2010. Analysts are forecasting owner of Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza brands will report to the benefit of 424 m $ (265 million to £) of operation and $452 m, an increase of 363 m $ in 2009. The company was due to complete redesign of $ Holiday Inn billion at the end of 2010, and analysts will research to see if the move was successful in increasing revenue per available room, either RCD 3pc and FP7 to 3,000 reworked hotels.

• Premier Foods is full-year results report. Analysts expect the author of Mr. Kipling cake and Ambrosia custard benefit pre-tax profits of £ 154. 3 m and sales of £ 2 62bn. That compares with profit of £ 46. 7 m last year and sales of £ 2 66bn.

Full-year results

Barclays, Domino Pizza, electric Word, InterContinental Hotels, the Premier Foods, Quarto

Interim results

Albemarle & Bond

Bargaining update

British land, Innospec, Micro Focus International, Pennant, yell

Economy

January, worker productivity data inflation figures

Meetings

No announcement

• BHP Billiton should display the record first half profit boosted by higher prices of raw materials. Consensus forecasts are for attributable profit of $10 MD $ 5. 7bn last year. After the collapse of hostile offer for PotashCorp group at the end of last year, investors are eager to hear the details of any return of capital. The company should initiate a buyback of approximately 5 billion $ and raise its dividend slightly, but it is unlikely that a special dividend will be paid.

Full-year results

African Barrick Gold, Morgan Crucible, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Temple Bar Investment Trust

Interim results

BHP Billiton, Thorntons

Bargaining update

WS Atkins

Economy

Quarterly bank of England inflation report investigates the confidence of consumers nationwide, UK unemployment

Meetings

Invista real estate European confidence (AGM)

• BAE Systems, large company of defence Europe, is due to a report of the annual results for 2010. Analysts expect the company to announce sales of autour £ 22. 5bn and earnings before interest and tax of £ 2 13bn. Compares to taking £ 22 sales and £ 2 MD gains in 2009. BAE has made a number of acquisitions in the security sector in recent months, and also purchased a business to repair Navy ship of United States, increased maintenance revenues when spending on new equipment is declining.


• Reed Elsevier, publishing and events group, should report pre-tax year-round profits from the words of £ 1 billion on sales of approximately £ 6bn. Company will face questions from analysts about the possibility of the sale of RBI, its arms trade magazine. Lorna Tilbian from Numis, analyst said: we believe that group may reconsider outgoing RBI and also exhibits and redeploy the product risk solutions. We would be supportive of the move, well that do not underestimate the risk of running on the elimination and reinvestment, nor the time that the redesign of the group.

Full-year results

BAE Systems, Ladbrokes, Rathbone brothers, Reed Elsevier

Interim results

Dunelm, Redrow, Town Centre Securities

Bargaining update

Cable & Wireless worldwide, Holidaybreak, Halma, Kingfisher, Sports direct drug International, United, Cfseu, Virgin Media

Economy

CBI industrial trends survey

Meetings

Assured (EGM), easyJet (AGM), United (AGM)

Friday, February 18

• Results - Anglo American are expected to more than double to $9 MD. The company is due to reinstate its dividend at the provisional stage after suspending during the financial crisis. DeBeers diamond belonging to the 45pc operations said last week that he had returned to profit and after diamonds recovered process. Price of diamonds are now above redescendu levels with 53pc growth sales last year.

Full-year results

Anglo American, Charter Rentokil Initial, Sagentia

Interim results

Go-ahead

Bargaining update

Words.

Economy

Trends in the Bank of England in the data, figures for monthly retail loan

Meetings

No announcement

Inflation will be the focus January figures are published on Tuesday and the Bank of England maintains its own forecasts for the path of price increases. The official measure of inflation followed by (ICC), consumer price index should have jumped the cost of oil and other products kept growing.

Consensus forecasts are for prices increased 4pc on the previous year - double the 2pc target rate and a rise on 3 December FP7. The figure will be piling the pressure on makers of the Bank to justify their decision Thursday last to keep interest rates at their low 0 5pc folder for another month.

Quarterly forecast of the Bank for growth and inflation, on Wednesday, will be analysed for clues as to when the rate finally.

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank says inflation could hit 5MC but made it clear that it considers a rise in rates would be unwise given the weakness of the economy. Others disagree.


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TMX London Stock Exchange and of the Canada agree £ 4 MD fusion

Chris Gibson-Smith, President of the London Stock Exchange said: "we announced today the creation of a world leader in the space of Exchange..." I believe that together we can provide shareholders and customers a company significantly greater than the sum of our parts. »

He said fusion arrives at an "extremely important moment in the history of the capital markets.

Groupe TMX, valued at C $ 2. 97bn (£ 1. 86bn), trade, was suspended after confirmation of talks. The London Stock Exchange is estimated to be 2 £ taken, based on closing part night last price 892 p.

The merged group could be co-headquartered in London and Toronto and continues to be supervised by its existing regulatory authorities.

Xavier Rolet, LSE leader who said that he hoped "surprise everyone in the coming years" of the when he succeeded to Dame Clara Furse, will lead the enlarged company. "" Thomas Kloet, contrary, number will become President.

Wayne Fox will be non-Executive Chairman, overseeing a Board of Directors fifteen - eight of the London Stock Exchange which should should include three of Borsa Italiana and seven appointed by TMX.

Chris Gibson-Smith, who will remain Chairman of the stock exchange in London, and Paolo Scaroni will be Vice-Presidents.

The agreement two largest shareholders of London - Stock Investment Authority and Dubai - scholarship Qatar see their 20pc half about 10pc issues each.

Mr. Rolet said: "it is an incredibly exciting merger with considerable growth opportunities." We create greater place lists in the world for commodities, energy and natural resources, as well as top market sectors of range for small, middle and growing companies.

He said that the new international leader well rather than take advantage of growth opportunities in emerging markets.

"We aim at nothing less than to become a true powerhouse in the enterprise global exchange", he said.

After years of stick away approaches takeover, the agreement is an admission tacit, can no longer go it alone.

The agreement is a response to increasing competitive pressure in the industry, which saw the LSE lose foot rivals at a faster rate.

It will create a global exchange where liquidity pools can be aggregated - bringing the price down. By sharing technology, award recipient London and TMX will improve their competitive position against venus newer, faster, in an environment where scale and size determine success.

Speed stock and derivatives trading and the arrival of 'high frequency' traders have transformed the commercial landscape, where markets have fragmented away from national exchanges. Awards are now in terms of global - as fusion of the districts of Singapore and Australian - consolidate or diversify into other classes of business, allowing the costs of it to share.

In 2007, consolidation saw the New York Stock Exchange Group buy Euronext pan-European exchange; NASDAQ buy OMX; and Deutsche Borse buy International Securities Exchange, one of the largest U.S. options exchange.

During the term of eight years of Dame Clara UK exchange pushed back five approaches to takeover, including Deutsche Borse in 2004, Macquarie Australia in 2005 and Nasdaq in 2006. This last value LSE shares at £ 12,43.

When she resigned in May 2009, Dame Clara said: "don't forget the bid we received Macquarie is eight - time mobilized and of the Nasdaq near seven - time mobilized - imagine where we would today if we had accepted either of these submissions."

After being the target of the bid, the London Stock Exchange became a Consolidator. In 2007 it purchased Borsa Italiana for more than €1 (£ 1 billion), short-circuit hopes for successful LSE Nasdaq bid. Last year it acquired rival exchange and new-blood Turquoise, update market relevance.

Transaction diluted Borsa LSE 22pc – Nasdaq game a game later sold to Dubai - and created a Board on which five 12 seats were held by Italians – more likely to oppose a takeover of Nasdaq.

The agreement with TMX has similar defensive characteristics thanks to the culture of Canadian protectionism - graphically seen in November when the investment Canada Act was used to block the $38bn (plus £ 23) BHP Billiton bid for the Canada potash Corporation.

The Canadian merger may be a surprise to the LSE nostalgic 313-year history but unlikely marriage ends UK exchange paranoia regarding unwanted suitors.

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Tesco lack as bid activity drives market

But Mr Tattersall said that although Tesco has a variety of opportunities for growth in its services and its international operations, he believed that many of them were reluctant to hardware contributors to the group long term profits.

He added: "in our view, the" burden of growth ' fall more and more about China and the Korea where Tesco has its best international operation and strong prospects. "

Tesco defends its opportunities overseas and analysts recently is a trip to see its operations in China and southern Korea. But Mr Tattersall pointed out that it would be "a long and difficult to decent statements road" in China where the retail market will be "hard to break" through factors such as high levels of competition.

Tesco, which is due to unveil its third quarter results on Tuesday, throw 6.9 to 420 p and compete with J Sainsbury fell 357½p 4½ broader market rallied on M & A rumbling.

Among the second lining De La Rue hurtled 193½ 841 p on the confirmation that the ticket printer had rejected an approach worth 895 m above £ French rival Oberthur Technologies.

While on the top layer, Xstrata ticked up to 47% to £ average in the middle of a potential list of merchant products speak more of the world, Glencore. Proposed flotation follows speculation that Glencore seek a merger with Xstrata, which it currently holds a participation of a third party.

Vodafone edged 0.95 to 165% reporting it is close to selling its mobile operator SFR in the France Vivendi 44pc, participation. A sale is considered as potentially paving the way for an emission £ share buyback. But RBS analysts maintains "sell" them on Vodafone, saying that as an agreement would eliminate the greatest positive catalyst for the stock in the coming year.

While the excitement of submission has helped lift FTSE 100 points 5770.28 24.96 and the FTSE 250 gained points 69.18 11151.35, the biggest gainer blue-chip was inhabitant.

Back office outsourcing specialist jumped 34 669½p after that he announced that Chief Executive, Paul Pindar, bought 150,000 shares 640 p on December 3.

However, the persistent concerns about sovereign debt keep large caps check. As investors were waiting at the end of a meeting of Finance Ministers European merchants blocked the margin and suffered financial stocks - Barclays hangar 5 to 263 p.

Having a better day, however, was Rolls-Royce. Stock of engine-maker has encountered some turbulence since the explosion of one of its engines to a Qantas A380 jet flight last month.

But Monday, Rolls ticked up to 13-640½p after analysts of the Bank of America - Merrill Lynch spent their position on rollers to "buy" to "neutral" in the context of civil aeronautics sector optimistic review. Analysts named Rolls as one of their "top picks". Markup also Rolls is news that he had won contracts worth more than 110 m $ (£ 70 m) for energy in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the India projects.

But in the same note, Merrill cut air equipment supply and technology company Cobham, "neutral" from "buy", citing concerns about defence contracts.

"Defence contractors are likely to face a few years of continuous pressure, taking into account the environment budget tightening (at least in the US and Europe), increased customer focusing on affordability (and) a greater competition on international markets," said analysts. Cobham throw 4.8 194½p, making the Faller more pronounced on the index of reference.

Not far behind Cobham was Randgold resources. Minor but slipped 145 p to £ 58.85 include concerns about the political tensions in Côte d'Ivoire. After a disputed election led to the two leading candidates is sworn in as President, the minor has stated that it was "closely followed the political and security situation.

Mark Bristow, Chief Executive said Randgold access and security around Tongon resources mine the company had hitherto not been affected by the evolution of elections for the position.

Punch taverns place on rumours of equity bubbles

Another beneficiary m & a rumour mill was punch taverns.

Pub group increased by 4.3 - or 7pc - 69¼p weekend reports that the company of private capital, HVAC, could be traced a bid for punch.

There are also suggestions that other players such as TPG capital private capital could be interested by the operator of pub.

However, analysts caution exercised Seymour Pierce. They said: "we believe such a bid for the entire group by perforation is unlikely to materialize unless it's a"specialist"- as well as the mention of GPT is of interest.

They added that taking into account the size of the debt of the Group - Institute for £ 3 - one such bid seems unlikely a company that would normally use financial leverage for acquisitions.

"If such bid were to happen the bidder may seek to take a haircut - debt holders would normally not be good news for equity, said broker."

Last week, there was speculation that punch can examine 6 000 non-compliant with its holders unload rental pubs for an attempt to reduce its debt piles.


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Monday, 30 May 2011

Ten ways to invest in gold

Bars come in metric sizes and are directly based on price or agenda, a premium for the manufacture and marketing. More bar, already the premium.

One way people's own gold is to buy gold with the sovereign coins 22 carat gold favorite British investors. Dating back to 1982 and about 1887 rulers are currently the best bet.

Another popular option is to buy the South Africa Krugerrands. The smallest is a 0.1 oz coin which would cost £ 70 and have a resale value of £ 50. A coin 1 oz fresh £ 567 at time of writing, and has a value of £ 512 resale.

ETFs but are not technically funds because they follow a single guarantee. ETF or securities are traded on the London Stock Exchange. They essentially follow the price of gold can be exchanged every day - everything you pay is the prosecution to address 0 4pc. They are also regulated financial products. Visit www.exchangetradedgold.com or www.etfsecurities.com for more information.

These are rare, the most popular being gold & General, BlackRock invests in shares of mining gold and other business products. Advisers believe general commodity funds could also do the job for private investors as they dabble gold stocks - JPM natural resources and natural resources of their Australia remain popular. Shares of gold mining have tended to be more volatile than the price of gold.

Gold bullion banks offer two types of gold account - allocated and assigned. An allocated account is actually as gold maintenance in a safe and form the most secure investment in physical gold. Gold is stored in a vault owned and managed by a bullion dealer recognized, or a deposit.

With an account not assigned, on the other hand, investors do not have specific bars assigned their. Traditionally, one of the benefits of non-allocated since the lack of storage or insurance, because the bank accounts reserves the right to rent the gold to.

You can of course buy shares of companies which either trade or a gold mine.

While thousands of articles in gold jewelry that change hands this Christmas, they are not considered as a serious investment.

India devours 800 tonnes of bullion, more 30pc the annual production of gold, especially as jewellery. But even if these jewels long term hold their value and the rise in inflation, the costs of manufacturing and markup Jewellers mean sell a fraction of the price during the first years of the property.

Historically, gold certificates were issued by the Treasury of the civil war until 1933. Dollar denominated certificates have been used in the gold standard and could be exchanged for an equal value of gold.

Nowadays, the certificates or offer investors a method of holding gold without taking physical delivery. Issued by banks, especially in countries like the Germany and Switzerland, they confirm property individual while the Bank holds the metal on the client's behalf.

The investor avoids storage and personal security issues, and earns the liquidity being able to sell portions of the operation by simply calling the depositary.

Perth currency also manages a certificate which is guaranteed by the Government of the Australia and is distributed in a number of countries (www.perthmint.com.au/investment_certificate.aspx) program.

A number of structured products linked to commodity was launched. They are either baskets of goods or products individual such as sugar, oil, Platinum or gold.

Structured products are generally five year plans that aim to pay you a set of return and limit your risk. Structured products can be complicated to ensure that you read the small print, or preference for expert advice.


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The cult of equity is dead, long live equities

Since the trough in March 2009 credit crunch UK equities recovered 87pc and emerging markets by a jaw dropping 150pc. Rarely the rates of return were very good.

But these gains followed by spectacular waterfalls in the previous year and a half, and in the United States or the UK have yet delivered equities in their redescendus tops. Worse yet, it is the second bear market for shares in less than a decade. Even with reinvested dividends, you'd be on your money so far this century.

Bonds and cash, on the other hand, well done. The bottom line is that equities are slaughtered at risk; There are many years where they return less money. To compensate for this risk, investors demand a higher rate of return or a risk premium.

The question therefore arises of how long you must hold shares certain premium fully compensates the risk of sudden loss of value. In his book of Stocks for the Long term, the U.S. Jeremy Siegel investment analyst updates this time 20 years.

In other words, in any period of 20 years that you care to take in the modern history of the United States actions will always do better than cash. The outperformance during certain periods of 20 years will be marginal and other very important but his perspective is that on a 20 year vision, there is no risk of hold shares all the.

Credit Switzerland study is not seriously compliance overlooking Siegel, but how universally applicable, this 20-year rule is really matters. Since 100 years, the United States were uncontested superpower and the economic power of the world, and for much of this period, the dollar was also de facto world reserve currency.

This provides huge benefits including no bénéficis not others. The United Kingdom must be 23 years to ensure consistency of even cash consideration and France, is a life-covering 66 years.

Moreover, the rapid advance of emerging markets makes it unlikely that the United States will maintain its economic benefits. It may take more time in the future to achieve the performance out of warranty for actions.

That being said, makers received a better control of volatility. For example, by nadir of tightening of credit in March 2009, at what stage U.S. equities had lost their value 56pc, stock market exactly followed the same path as in the great Crash of the interwar period.

Yet it has been since a marked divergence. In the 1930s, stock market operated down, eventually losing more than 80pc of its value. This time, rot, stopped at Midway destruction of value.

Banks were rescued, and massive policy stimulus has managed to stem the economic contraction. Exceptionally, the also decoupled western edge of emerging markets. They carried on growth, providing a counterbalance which had not existed previous banking and business slowdowns. The global reach of many Western companies meant that they were able to weather the storm more effectively that had occurred in the past.

What this says about the future? Unfortunately little, I'm afraid. Actions have been now a long enough period of underperformance, but even on the 20-year rule could operate for a few years still until we can be confident of beating cash equities and bonds.

A not so dissimilar, although entirely non-scientist, theory of ups and downs of the markets has them meet 17 year cycle locust - 17 manufacture of hay, followed by the famine of 17 years. This remarkably well fits post-war fellowship experience at the United States, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average break the barrier of 1,000 at some point in the 1960s, but then not unambiguously go a lot higher before the beginning of the 1980s. On this view, the Dow Jones index is set to trade around 10,000 in 2017 level. Only six years more than trading sideways move.

In any case, with respect to the shares, the credit crunch has to be seen as just part of a cycle long-term who after many years of performance over made the return to trend rates return function. Although awe inspiring advances in technology, the life expectancy and world trade, we have not yet learned to tame the cycle.

If we cannot be sure where equities are headed, there is something that can be said with certainty on government bonds. May not be on the brink of a major; correction Depends essentially what is happening in growth and inflation. But as the authors note the sourcebook, suggesting that they correspond to higher rates of return seen since 1982 is fantastic. You can not get a lot back shares either, but unlike the obligations at least, there is a chance one.


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Tech stocks in the request but FTSE sliding back

Numis analyst read this as a suggestion that the deal could be renegotiated, while Royal Bank of Scotland analysts also believed that CSR could be searching for better conditions.

"While we do not believe CSR will be at foot of the given agreement the weak results and Outlook, we believe that CSR could ask for a renegotiation of terms," said the broker. If CSR withdrew from the agreement, pay a fee of $12 break. 2 m.

CSR is also set to unveil its first-quarter results today. Matrix analysts are feeling bullish, keeping their "buy" rating and anticipate revenues in 164 m $. The chip manufacturer on 13 to 368 p to claim the midcap index bronze medal, but the FTSE 250 as a whole lost 11.15 to 11,896.09 points.

The FTSE 100 watched of same dull, excretion 34.08 points of 5942.69 as a resurgence of concerns about the Greece debt problems kept traders on the sidelines.

Sentiment was soured by an update commercial for HSBC, which fell from 3½ % 648.2 after having revealed a fall in favour of the first quarter. The atmosphere was further overshadowed by major banks to give up their fight to avoid mistakenly sold customers personal protection of insurance compensation.

Suffering the sharpest fall, however, was a Centrica. The owner of British Gas dragged 12-303½p, as he said that profit growth would slow down due to an increase in taxes on the production of oil and gas in the North Sea.

Slipping back, too, was property stocks such as UBS advised investors to the profits of the Bank. In a long note on Central London property, the broker has described the capital market Board of the as one of the "hottest in Europe".

But he said "potential offer is build 2014 and there is a risk that future demand will lower in previous cycles, reflecting the continuing challenges of the financial sector and lower general UK, growth and consumer demand."

In these concerns, they recommended some making short-term profits come from the results season. They cut their ratings on British land, capital & counties and land securities to "netural" from "buy", sending them to the bottom of 7½ to 589½p 1.1 to 168.9 p and p 11½ to 766, respectively.

They cut Derwent London and great Portland estates to "sell" from "neutral". The former lost 33 p to £ 17.35 and this last hangar 406.8 5.3 percent.

But elsewhere, website Rightmove property advanced 6 p to £ 10.91 that Goldman Sachs bumped up to his price target of £ 10.83 to 14.30 £.

Return to the highest level, Serco edged up to 0.5 to 547½p that investors were encouraged by the Outsourcer winner £ 1 more contracts since the beginning of the fiscal year.

Flight in pole position, however, was Inmarsat. The satellite operator rose from 26 to 619 p as he posted an increase of 15pc of revenue in the first quarter.

Just behind was autonomy. The author of software looking for emails and phone calls achieved 63 p £ 16.75 as Numis have changed their attitude of "reduce", "add". Also its price target moving at £ 12.90 17.65 £, the broker said that after a strong first quarter, he saw a chance for autonomy to reverse his record of two years of the share price underperformance.

It was a similar story on the second level where software provider Misys jumped 26½ in 343½p with the Credit Switzerland restart of coverage with an "outperform" rating. Analysts thought that the Bank of the Misys trade was "back on solid footing after years of under-investment" and also stated if the parts of the group could be attractive acquisition targets.

During this time, Micro focus put on 385 p as 12.2 computer society put forward an updated commercial in which he said that revenues for the year were consistent with expectations. Last month, Micro Focus said it had received an approach taken and there is that Bain Capital is the suitor of speculation.

Slipping back, however, was Thomas Cook. As the tour operator said that the success of the agitation of the Middle East would be worse than expected, as vacationers avoided destinations such as the Egypt, it fell 4.9 percent 156.2. That its toll on large-cap peers, tui travel, which fell 1.2% 243.6.

Lower market, Mediterranean Oil & Gas past 1 p 11.88.(9) as a fundraising of £ 20 million received the green light.

Carriage of oil and gas also fried 26.75 in 218½p as UBS began coverage with a "buy" rating and 450 p price target in a note on the explorers with African exhibition. Analysts enthusiasm that sub-Saharan zone "has become one of the most exciting exploration areas in the 21st century".

The broker said the region was "widely explored" and that political stability found in some countries allowed small businesses to enter alongside the majors.

Cart has been top pick of UBS, with analysts saying that there could be as much 1630pc to the price paid if all current two of its first two wells off the coast of Namibia are discovered oil.

UBS also began energy Cove and Bowleven with "buy" ratings. they checked up to 2 at 89 p and p of 7.75 to 269.25, respectively. The broker added that it considered the three companies as M & A candidates.


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Friday, 27 May 2011

To help UK exporters work we need a book competition

If interest rates rose here before or more that in other countries, then the book might speak a good way. Photo: Greg Meeson/hitandrun / Alamy

Sterling has the habit to go through sharp fluctuations. Basket-case Great Britain squad think is on the verge of taking another lurch down. What concerns me much more, is the prospect of this increase.


Whenever I'm writing this way I get a barrage of invective from readers who say that I am:


a seriously overestimating the role of the rate of Exchange (polished)


b a cowardly, Keynesian, devaluationist (rude); or


stupid c (very rude - and, of course, patently absurd).


Devaluation of the pound sterling is the road to ruin, they say. Look at the comparative performance of the Germany and the United Kingdom. Germany is still strong and are surging exports, while the UK flounders. What is important is to produce the stuff, doesn't do not value for money.


Where to begin? If Exchange rates anywhere, why the Chinese authorities are trying so hard to reduce value the yuan to la? And why is taken so happy German of submerged the perennially strong Mark in the euro? And why are domestic inflation harm competitiveness if a high exchange rate is not?


The most important thing for an economy is its real productivity. If it is good to produce goods and services it will be prosperous. If no, no.


Similarly, if it is good to produce goods and services it will be probably good export as well. The Germany technical skills and the brilliance of its manufacturing companies in fact give it a solid foundation for a successful export. By hand, if you have nothing to sell exchange rate can descend the NAP and you export still much. That the fate of many, is a country in Africa today.


It would be wonderful for United Kingdom to become more productive and gain skills much better engineering. There are things that can be made to strengthen our competencies and our engineering base, and they should be. But in the short term at least, the power of Government here is minor.


But price matters too, and here the Government policy can have a big impact, particularly by the exchange rate. You can produce really good stuff, but if you price too high it does sell. Ironically, this is precisely what has happened to many countries of the West, the development of the United Nations in Asia, starting with the Japan in the 1950s and 1960s.


Typically European and American products were better, but Asian alternatives were cheaper. As Asian countries managed to sell successfully at lower prices gradually, they improved quality and settled in the value-added chain. Their success is exactly the opposite of proof that the exchange rate does not matter. They only became successful operation with a high exchange rate. On the contrary, their exchange rates have increased because they succeeded.


Ironically, for the excellence of German-made its recent success did not come from the rapid growth of productivity, which was lower than in Britain, but maintain labour costs. Pay increases were extremely low. As costs continued to rise sharply in other countries, German products have become more competitive cost. If you want, Germany received a form of internal devaluation.


The advantage of being able to stage external devaluation is that it can reduce the relative price of production of goods and services instantly and in all areas. On the other hand, becoming competitive costs by internal deflation can be a slow and painful process. It is found that Germany was enough good that too, but the Germans for you. The Greeks and the Spaniards are far from being as good at it. And historical experience suggests that we are not is.


The battle of the Committee on monetary policy between the hawks and doves has several dimensions, but one of the most important is the potential impact on the pound sterling. If interest rates rose here before or more that in other countries, then the book might speak a good way.


Of course, this would provide relief from inflationary pressures. But the result would be to outperform our exporters again and stop making resumption of its tracks.


There is no doubt that the interests of some point rate will return to more normal levels of 5MC or not and even if the world economy is growing strongly. But the tax reduction is just beginning and real incomes are falling. Without the strong growth of net exports in the next years is difficult for me to see how the British economy can manage growth at all. Our best hope lies a competitive book - and this means an extended period of very low interest rates.


Roger Bootle is CEO of the economy of capital and economic adviser to the Deloitte.


Roger.Bootle@capitaleconomics.com


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Traders "evacuate their rage" on the London Stock Exchange glitch: quotation

"It's a bit frustrating - we had reasonable shots in these markets in the last days and one cannot trade." They have not covered themselves in glory really. »

"Traders will be ventilation rage." This is yet another glitch in the negotiation and traders who remember again the same interrupted questions about 3 hours in 2009, will be without doubt be ventilation fury this morning on the London Stock Exchange. At a time of uncertainty in markets, where traders are having to keep on your toes with the situation in Libya, the last thing that they need is an unexpected shutdown in the negotiation. »

"It is not surprising that the LSE is losing market share and it is not good PR for the company which is located in the documents not only for its merger with TMX but now also for the launch of its new pan-European trading platform." The industry is consolidating as competition between exchanges became fierce and glitches like this are not our exchange of favours lighthouse. The hope is that any mergers will quickly address these technical issues. But don't hold your breath! »

"Twice in one week with the blame game in full flow does not inspire confidence." Person really failed to comment on this till after 8: 30 am, which is worrying. »

"London seems to have to use a"Kray expression", a bit of precedent in terms of its technological systems break." I am sure that they occur elsewhere in the world, but I don't know if that it is brought to our attention in the same way. LIFFE fell down about eight years on a number of occasions to acute embarrassment not only management, but also the market, because he eventually Euronext portfolio where he seems to have lived happily ever after.

"The last time that the LSE system failed to muster was in September 2008, when it was closed for a day." Since then a new computerized system called "Millennium" has been installed - more robust, more quickly and supposedly the response to problems of all merchants. I am informed reliable installation of a double operation is implausible in technical or economic terms. I'll take this comment on their nominal value. It is very frustrating that London lives remain the financial capital of the world. "

"Systems are not infallible and outages occur, however, it is essential for any primary market, system to have a high level of Exchange time."


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Trade in London cocoa under the spotlight

This happens to a head in July last year when cocoa hit a maximum of 32 years, as Anthony Ward of Armajaro Holdings purchased most of the physical inventory in London.

Following this approach, 16 players in the European industry wrote to LIFFE complain about lack of transparency and excessive speculation driving the increase in prices on the London market.

However, prices have fallen more than 15pc since spur of 2009, when Mr. Ward, known as the finger of shock, took its dominant position causing critics to dampen.

The domination of London as a centre of commodity trading prices for products such as metals, cocoa and sugar are generally recognized as a reference global key.

But pressure from business groups recently warned that London's risk of losing its status as the place to trade in commodities.

Europe is considering whether to impose new regulations that could limit speculative trade, which warn traders may force them to pass Affairs at Singapore or Hong Kong. This follows similar stringent rules of the commodity future Trading Commission U.S. oversight body.

Despite these threats, London still has the infrastructure, such as warehouses and historical expertise in the sense that it is likely to remain a centre of commodity trading for a few years at least.

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Thursday, 26 May 2011

Ireland opens door to IMF mission

 Taoiseach Brian Cowen, left, will meet with Olli Rehn, right, but insists that Ireland is fully funded until June. Photo: PA

Olli Rehn, Europe's economics commissioner, said Ireland is not strong enough to back-stop a banking system that has been shut out of capital markets and suffered a haemorrhage of bank deposits. "The Irish banking sector has to be made viable and sustainable," he said.


Chancellor George Osborne said the UK stands ready to play its full part in any rescue. "Ireland is our closest neighbour and it's in Britain's national interest that the Irish economy is successful and we have a stable banking system," he said in Brussels.


Brian Cowen, the Irish premier, tried to put the best face on the humiliation, insisting that the Irish state is fully-funded until June and does not need a bail-out. "What we're involved in here is working with colleagues in respect of currency problems and euro issue problems that are affecting Ireland," he said.


Enda Kenny, Fine Gael opposition leader, ridiculed the claim, accusing him of raising the "white flag" and subjecting the country to the "dictates" of foreign masters.


Officials from the European Central Bank, the Commission, and the IMF will take part in the "Troika" mission, which Dublin called a "consultation". French finance minister Christine Lagarde said a package may be agreed within days.


Dublin hopes to dress up any bail-out as aid for banks rather than the state, but the distinction became meaningless when Ireland guaranteed its banks in September 2008.


"The two are inextricably merged: it's an omelette that is impossible to unscramble," said Professor Brian Lucey from Trinity College Dublin. He estimates the total cost of rescuing Anglo Irish and absorbing toxic debt through the 'bad bank' NAMA at €85bn.


Analysts say the state may have to inject up to €15bn into Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish (AIB) after the pair lost almost €20bn of deposits in the early autumn. Central bank governor Patrick Honohan gave a hint of ECB intentions by saying lenders should be "over-capitalised". The ECB wants to extricate itself from the role of propping up the Irish banking system - and therefore the state - with loans equal to 80pc of Irish GDP.


Any bail-out will be on softer terms than the "Memorandum" imposed on Greece. The country has already slashed spending and cut public wages by 13pc. Brussels is clearly pushing Ireland into a rescue before it needs one in order to stem contagion to Portugal and Spain, so Dublin can hope to extract guarantees on Irish sovereignty and its 12.5pc corporation tax rate, which that has been crucial in luring Google, Microsoft, Pfizer, and others to Ireland.


Yields on Irish 10-year bonds dipped slightly to 8.1pc but remain at crippling levels. LCH Clearnet doubled its margin requirement to 30pc for Irish bonds despite the likely rescue.


Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said Ireland faces a "truly daunting task" trying to tackle both its financial and fiscal crises at the same time. "The country still has the highest budget deficit in the eurozone despite austerity cuts. The deficit is 12pc of GDP this year after stripping out bank rescue costs, the same as last year. This is what concerns investors," he said.


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Goldman Sachs shuns the BRICs for Wall Street

Goldman insists that the longer-term super-boom remains healthy in both the BRICs and a broader group of countries, or "N-11", led by South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey and Egypt.

Pension funds and insurers in the rich countries have invested just 6.5pc of their $60 trillion (£38 trillion) of combined wealth in new markets, leaving them vastly misaligned against the geography of world growth. "We are only in the first innings of an undeniable structural story over the next two decades," said Mr Moe.

Japan's state-run GPIF, the world's biggest pension fund with $1.4 trillion in assets, is only now acquiring a change in its mandate allowing it to venture outside the mature economies.

First, however, China must extricate itself from a credit boom. Mr Moe said the outcome is hard to judge since Beijing is resorting to opaque instruments to fight inflation – 5.1pc and rising – rather than relying on transparent instruments of interest rate rises and currency appreciation.

Goldman expects China to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, distancing itself from the ultra-bearish views of those such as hedge fund star Jim Chanos betting that Beijing will prove unable to engineer a soft landing from its property bubble.

The surprise for 2011 will be a torrid recovery in the US, with growth of 3.4pc to 3.8pc, as the country confounds critics and averts a post-bubble "Lost Decade". Surging earnings will push the S&P 500 index of US stocks to 1500 by the end of the year.

Even Japan will outshine China, pulling out of its deflation trap, with earnings growth of 23pc this year and 22pc in 2012. Kathy Matsui, Goldman's Tokyo strategist, said Japanese equities may be the best way to play the Pacific growth story since the average price-to-book ratio is 1.0, compared to 1.9 for China and the rest of emerging Asia.

She said Japanese companies are sitting on a "Mount Fuji" of cash reserves worth $867bn to be unleashed on share buy-backs, dividends and a takeover blitz once the deflation danger recedes.

Jeff Currie, Goldman's commodity guru, said global equities will beat resources for the next few months. Gold may yet push yet higher to $1,650 an ounce before peaking but vertigo sets in at these giddy levels. "Gold is pricing sovereign default risk but we see the macro-environment on a much more solid footing," he said.

Mr Currie told clients to remain "long gold" until the US Federal Reserve winds down quantitative easing and prepares for a tightening cycle. There is a near-perfect correlation over time between negative real interest rates and rising gold prices.

With real rates near minus 1pc in Europe, minus 2pc in the US and minus 3pc in the UK, a wash of global liquidity is fuelling the bullion boom – along with purchases by the central banks of China, India, and Russia – but watch out when the worm turns.

The moment that OECD central banks start to raise rates in earnest could switch the process into rapid reverse. Mr Currie has compiled a chart of real gold prices based of Bank of England records dating back to 1260, when Pope Alexander IV was cranking up the Inquisition and Henry III was trying to reverse the Magna Carta in England.

It shows that prices are the highest they have been at any time for the last 440 years, other than a brief episode in the early 1720s, and the parabolic spike of 1980, which collapsed abruptly.

The "Soviet bloc" of CCCP – crude, copper, cotton, and platinum – offers a more enticing balance of risk and reward. "All of these commodities are supply-constrained. The world can't produce enough of them, and nor can China." Mr Currie said.

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HSBC sees China and America leading global mega-boom

 In a sweeping report entitled "The World in 2050", HSBC said China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy. 

Crunching everything from fertility rates to schooling levels and the rule of law, HSBC predicts that the world's economic output will triple again by 2050, provided the major states can avoid conflict - trade wars, or worse - and defeat the Malthusian threat of food and water limits. Growth will rise to 3pc on average, up from 2pc over the last decade.


In a sweeping report entitled "The World in 2050", the bank said China would snatch the top slot as expected, but only narrowly. China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy in bipolar condominium - or simply the G2 - with India at $8.2 trillion far behind in third slot, and parts of Europe slithering into oblivion.


Turkey will vault past Russia, settling an Ottoman score. Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20. Muslim societies may start to reassert an economic clout unseen since the late Caliphate. Yet Brazil may disappoint again, stalling at 7th place in 2050 as its birthrate slows sharply and bad schools exact their toll.


The surprise is how well the Anglo-Saxon states hold up under HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor Robert Barro. America's high fertility rate (2.1) will allow it too keep adding manpower long after China's workforce has begun to contract in 2020s and as even India starts to age in the 2040s.


An eightfold jump in the per capita income of China and India will keep growth brisk despite demographic headwinds, but they will not come to close to matching US living standards. Americans will be three times richer than the Chinese in 2050.


Britain at $3.6 trillion also fares well, slipping one rank to sixth place but pulling far ahead of Italy and France, and almost displacing Germany as Europe's biggest economy. This is chiefly due to the UK's healthy fertility rate (1.9), although sceptics might question whether a birthrate inflated by the EU's highest share of unmarried teenager mothers is a good foundation for prosperity.


The low fertility of Korea (1.1), Singapore (1.2) Germany (1.3), Poland (1.3), Italy (1.4), Spain (1.4) and Russia (1.4), more or less dooms these countries to aging crises and population decline unless they open the floodgates to immigration.


Japan is already deep into this phase of atrophy, explaining why the country has had such trouble shaking off the effects of the Nikkei bust. Its total population began contracting outright since 2005. It shed a record 120,000 last year, and will shrink 37pc by 2050.


"Demography matters," said Karen Ward, the report's chief author. The "big losers" are the smaller states of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, and Austria, which will mostly drop out of the top 30. "They may struggle to maintain their influence in global policy forums," she said.


HSBC works from the assumption that mankind will avoid the energy crunch and overcome the eco-deficit, a term used to describe the world's depletion rate of non-renewable assets. It calls for $46 trillion of investments in alternative forms of energy to break out of the carbon trap, and head off a supply crisis that could derail growth.


Feeding the world may be harder. The UN expects food demand to rise 70pc by 2050, yet the yield growth of crops has slowed to 1.5pc a year from 3.2pc in the 1960s. The number of people living in areas experiencing "severe water stress" will double from a third of the world population to two thirds between 1995 and 2025. The water basins irrigating the crops of the North China plain are being exhausted at an alarming rate.


HSBC admits that it economic projections are based on a "rather rosy scenario". Yet one thing seems clear. As superpowers of world food output, the US and Canada are sitting pretty.


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Global bond rout deepens on US fiscal worries

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Captiol Hill Fedderal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that the explicit purpose of the policy, which he calls 'credit easing', is to bring down yields Photo: Getty Images

The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of money worldwide and the key driver of US mortgages rates – has rocketed to 3.3pc, up 35 basis points since President Barack Obama agreed on Monday to compromise with Senate Republicans on tax cuts.

The Treasury sell-off has ricocheted through the global system, triggering bond sell-offs in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Japan's finance ministry braced as borrowing costs on seven-year debt jumped by a sixth in one trading session, while German Bunds punched through 3pc.

The White House deal with Congress will renew the Bush tax cuts for rich and poor alike for two years, as well as adding a further a 2pc cut in payroll taxes and an extension of unemployment aid.

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said it is hard to disentangle whether investors are shunning bonds because they expect US stimulus to boost growth next year, or whether they are losing patience with profligacy in Washington.

"If this is all about growth, that's brilliant. But if yields are rising because people think Amirca's fiscal situation is unsustainable, then its armaggedon," he said.

"The US can get away with this only because it is the world's reserve currency. This would be totally unacceptable in any other country. We think these problems will start to crystallise for the US in the second half of 2011, once the European debt crisis has stabilised," he said.

The warnings were echoed by Li Daokui, a rate-setter for China's central bank. "The focus of the market is still in Europe, but we must be aware that the US fiscal situation is much worse than in Europe," he said.

The US tax deal adds $1 trillion of stimulus over two years, according to BNP Paribas. America's budget deficit will remain stuck near 10pc of GDP, not just in 2011 but also in 2012. This will push gross public debt to 110pc of GDP under the IMF definition, near the brink of a debt compound spiral. The contrast with fiscal tightening in Europe has become starkly evident.

Both Moody's and Fitch warned that the US must map out a credible strategy to control spending. "We have long-term concerns about the US rating outlook and they're not yet being addressed," said Stephen Hess, chief US analyst for Moody's.

Stephen Lewis, from Monument Securities, said the bond rout is a sign that Washington can no longer take global markets for granted. "We have reached the limits of tolerance for budget deficits. There is a feeling around the world that nobody in Washington is paying any attention to the implications of what they are doing, but there is a very real risk that this will backfire if it causes mortgage rates to keep going up," he said.

"At the same time we've seen a loss of confidence in Fed strategy. There is a feeling that the Fed doesn't care about inflation – in fact, wants more of it – and that is certainly not in the interest of bondholders," he said.

The standard rate for 30-year mortgages in US has moved up in tandem with Treasury yields. The rate has been creeping up ever since the US Federal Reserve first signalled plans for a fresh blast of quantitative easing, rising 85 basis points in three months.

The housing squeeze raises serious doubts about the Fed's plan to purchase a further $600bn in Treasuries over coming months, or QE2 as it is known. Fed chair Ben Bernanke stated on Sunday that the explicit purpose of the policy – which he calls "credit easing" – is to bring down yields.

"We're not printing money. What we're doing is lowering interest rates by buying Treasury securities. And by lowering interest rates, we hope to stimulate the economy to grow faster," he said.

US data on foreign holdings of Treasuries and agency bonds are published with a delay, but monthly figures show that China sold a net $24bn in September and Russia sold $10bn. The concern is that investor flight from US debt will overpower the monthly purchases of $100bn by the Fed, making it ever harder for Washington to raise the $1.4 trillion needed next year to cover the deficit.

The rise in yields risks becoming a textbook case of a central bank losing control over long-term rates. The danger is that market fears of future bond losses – whether from inflation or higher default premiums – will neutralise the stimulus, or lead to stagflation.

Tom Porcelli, from RBC Capital Markets, said the Fed rates might be nearer 4pc by now if the Fed had not acted. However, he said there was no justification for QE2 at a time when the economy is growing at more than 2pc, and core inflation – though the lowest since the 1960s – is positive at 1pc. "Nobody believes that we're slipping into deflation anymore. That phase has passed," he said.


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Monday, 23 May 2011

Two years $ 98 high strike Brent crude oil

The Department of energy high its forecast 88.02 million barrels of oil consumption daily 87.78 m, estimated month last Photo: Reuters

Prices rose partly due to a leak in the main pipeline in Alaska, which carries one sixth of the American oil. Autour 95pc of production in the region ceased northern slopes and pipeline operator only restarts it on Wednesday at a lower than normal flow.


"There are a few good reasons which could explain and verify high oil prices" said Myrto Sokou Sucden financial analyst. "The recent trapped in pipeline Trans Alaska key predictions on the conditions of the winter in the North East, as well as strong stock markets could provide support to crude oil prices." It might be fairly quickly we can see the price of oil at $100 level. »


However, experts added Wednesday that failures and cold U.S. do not explain fully the recent spike, especially considering the difference of $6 in European and us compare the price of oil.


It came because the price of oil in London, Brent Crude, called growing faster than the price of crude oil from U.S., known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI).


Brent is regarded as a top scorer of the international application as WTI, which is a crude landlocked stored away from the coast mainly reflecting U.S. demand.


Global appetite for oil is growing. The Department of energy high its forecast 88.02 million barrels of oil consumption daily 87.78 m, estimated last month.


Speculators can also be targeted at the oil price London, betting that the price will go above $ 100. Global hedge funds have pumped millions of books in the future of oil pushing the number of contracts held by financial traders to a maximum of four years.


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U.S. job market woe dampens optimism

Several thousand protesters demanding jobs outside of Los Angeles City Hall.  Photo: AFP

Increase the rate of 9 8pc 9 6pc in October will be little comfort U.S. consumers whose spending helped power the global economy until the financial crisis.


Overall, the u.s. economy created 39 000 jobs in November, the report largely monitored by the Ministry of labour has shown well shy of the 150 000 provided by Wall Street economists.


The report, which followed a more encouraging signs for two months, string struck sentiment on the stock market and triggered a government bond price rally. FTSE ended the day 0 4pc to 5,745, while both the Dow Jones and the wider base S & P 500 were down about change lpc in afternoon trade at the beginning.


"It was basically a low ratio", said Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "We believe that the unemployment rate is higher before it goes lower.


While employers 50,000 committed private sector workers, it was too unless the 160,000 pencil in by analysts and not enough to lower the unemployment rate in a pool of labour which saw the 900 000 people to join so far this year. The weakness of employment extended in industries with retailers to cut 28 000 jobs, manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs and business building, leaving 5,000 people to go.


Failure recovery to a tooth President Obama unemployment rate and the Democrats in the election of the Congress of the month last and also invited the Fed to engage in a second round controversial quantitative flexibility with up to $600bn (£ 380bn).


Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month that the current level of unemployment is "unacceptable" and not something that the U.S. company should tolerate.


Paul Dales economic capital said that "overall, data strongly support our esteem for a long time that the unemployment rate will remain at 9 5pc or higher at least the next two years and as GDP did increase much 2pc".


The number of people hired on a temporary basis by 39,500, noting that businesses are preferring hedge their Paris as uncertainty vortices over whether taxes will go back to January 1. "Temporary workers are also easier to fire and there is still an overhang of uncertainty, said Mr. Dutta.".


Taking into account the retail of the country and manufacturing sectors showed signs of strengthening these past few weeks, others have warned that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions as a report.


Retailers reported sales during sales Thanksgiving last weekend, the beginning of a critical period of consumer spending. A separate report today from the Institute of Supply Management showed the United States services industry grew at the fastest pace in the six months of November.


Nigel Gault, Chief u.s. economist at IHS Global Insight has stated that he suspected that the report of the Ministry of labour is a "a flap - on the disadvantage - but it stressed that the recovery remains a progressive."


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Trading on the Prince William and Kate Middleton "marriage factor."

A few hours just after Prince William and Kate Middleton announced their engagement, traders have been developing portfolios that included security companies, beverage companies and providers of memories.

Greene King and Diageo should benefit from the national celebrations as pourrait Enterprise Inns, despite a 10pc fall in action Tuesday.

Whitbread, the owner of the premier Inns and hotels intercontinental are susceptible to the influx of tourists on the ground.

ITV and BSkyB, can be stimulated by the intense interest worldwide entier.Parmi Churchill China small business and Portmeiron could be retracted as are rising demand for souvenirs.

Manoj Ladwa au capital de ETX, said: "" a royal wedding news is a surprise welcome to many trade pub, entreprises.Le hotel and restaurant is likely to be the main beneficiary of the increase in public spending. ""


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Tub thumping bolsters Standard Chartered

The analyst also highlighted force Standard Chartered in emerging markets. «With its incomparable positioning through Asia, Africa and the Middle East and guard the roof very important for steady market share growth in the scale of the opportunity is immense», he added.

Standard Chartered spent 45 p £ 16.74 as the broader market rebounded as signs of manufacturing anxieties prevails exceeded growth in agitation in Egypt. The FTSE 100 advanced points 94.88 – 1. FP6 - 5957.82 while the FTSE 250 established 136.96 at 11608.47 points.

Pulling the large cap into positive territory were minors, the news of the growth in the manufacturing sector of China fueled the expectations of the strong demand for materials first nation hungry metal. Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Kazakhmys points 88 p to £ 13.84, 66 p to £ 14.72 and 72 percent to £ 15.78 respectively.

The ascent is made gains metals prices yesterday, with copper hit a record $9,955 (£ lífeyrissjóðir) a ton, before closing at $9,945. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicts there was stronger in the future copper prices. "We believe that the fundamentals are in place to run extended over $9,000 ton and we expect prices in the second half of 2011 to ration demand," they added.

Centamin Egypt soared 10.6 147 percent since he shrugged his concern with the instability of the Egypt. The mining company said its day-to-day activities and the safety of its employees with its lighthouse, Sukari gold project based in the eastern desert of Egypt, are not affected by the events. Also give the shares a lift has been in the fourth quarter record gold production.

Analysts at Numis kept their "buy" rating on Centamin, saying Egyptian liquidation was "too much" and recommended to buy low price share.

Furthermore, Kenmare resources Petropavlovsk advanced 3.3 38.8 p and p 48-£ 10.71 respectively.

But while the concerns of dealers on the Egypt have been reduced, analysts Peel Hunt pointed instability elsewhere in the Middle East. King Abdullah II of Jordan Tuesday dismissed his Government, which the broker was a greater threat to hikma Pharmaceuticals - which is based in the country - the Egyptian crisis.

Paul Cuddon, Peel Hunt, analyst cut his rating on Hikma "sell" from "hold". He considered the dismissal of the Government as "a threat to the dominant position Hikma was established in Jordan, gateway on the market of the Middle East and North Africa".

However, Morgan Stanley analysts appear relatively unfazed by the evolution of the Middle East and their impact on Hikma. The broker has kept its rating "equal-weight" on the drug manufacturer, saying: "fluid developments across the Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan (8pc 10pc of sales) are a blow to sentiment, although we do not anticipate a change in long-term structural growth for pharmaceutical markets history throughout the region. Hikma acquired 30½ at 834½p, after four days of losses.

Return among blue-chips, arm Holdings and autonomy were support for first place — only to be overtaken by Fresnillo - after two corporations displayed results than the pleasure of the market.

Designer chip arm acquired 31½ in 547½p after realizing increased profits 73pc year-round, lifted by strong demand producers Smartphone and tablet computers.

Although there is still no sign of raised long acquisition of autonomy, the software company acquired 94 percent to £ 15.90 as it reported an increase in sales of its core product.

With the market in optimistic mood, gros-cap only 12 stocks were in negative territory. Travel companies remained in the pot to black with tui travel and Intercontinental Hotels, falling from 1½ to 251½p and 12 percent to £ 13.03. Between mid-caps, Thomas Cook hangar 2.7 187.9%.

However, bae Systems has been most pronounced blue-chip faller, sliding 8.4 percent 333.6.

Tate & Lyle' s share price is strained after he raises the price of corn up to one-fifth its sweeteners to offset the explosion in the price of corn. Although the company said that it should make progress on the exercise, he fell 9½-542 pp.

Analysts at Investec retained their rating from "hold" on Tate & Lyle and said they expected to see some profit taking on the back of the Declaration.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ocado rose 29.7% 247.7(2) to make first place after the retailer posted online grocery more narrow losses year-round.

ambrian Capital advanced 2½ to 26.75% as the natural resource-based investment bank said profits for the year were supposed to be substantially ahead of £ 1. 82 m estimated in December.

However, 212½p congenital Matchtech slipped staffing company after it provides that the benefit of year-round was likely to be around 20pc below of estimates, after having invested strongly increase its workforce.


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Thursday, 19 May 2011

Weakening commodities weigh on equities

A decrease in oil prices has also reached producers such as bg Group, which has dropped from 51 percent to £ 14.06. Lower market, there was bad news for The oil againtoo. Explorer listed dropped goal 24½ in 84½p after inconclusive results from one of its North Sea of investors wells disappointed.

But stocks which suffered earned the field of oil prices surging. Cruise operator, Carnival, almost fell 20pc during the first four months of the year in the fears on the rise in fuel prices. In February, analysts at Nomura suggested that each amendment 10pc at the price of fuel in both sense affected the result by action of the Carnival by FP7 - 8pc.

But as brent withdraw yesterday, Carnival remonta 102 p to £ 25.50 to claim the pole position.

Among other stocks of travel which brought much of the concerns on the rise in fuel prices, International airlines consolidated advanced 6.6 to 246 p and TUI Travel - owner of first choice - gained 0.4 percent 241.9.

However, the blue chip set index remains low with minor heavyweight financial stocks leading the large cap below. The FTSE 100 slipped points 64.09 to 5919.98, then that FTSE 250 points Qatar to 11845.72

Suffering the sharpest slide was Schroders, which fell from 123 p to £ 13,98 as investment manager has experienced an unexpected loss on investments in the first quarter.

Lloyds banking Group also plunged 4.64 to 53.38 p as supported by the State Bank took a charge of MD surprise £ 3 against its profits to cover the compensation for the sold insurance that they would never be able to claim or that they did not know that they were purchasing. Decline of infected Lloyds other banking stocks, Royal bank of scotland fell 1.22% 40.48 and Barclays dropping 7½ to 276.3 p.

But then the market has remained firmly in reverse, accelerated transport by a commercial update upward of Green fire groupoperators.

The midcap company, which operates trains from the Southeast and the Gatwick Express, has led up to 95% at £ 14.95 to claim the gold medal, as it announced that annual profits are expected to top previous expectations after a strong performance in the last three months.

Rail revenue jumped over that 10pc during the three months at the beginning of April and his company of British bus sales rose 9 8pc. Its joint venture yellow school buses to the United States was also satisfactory progress, said the green light.

Analysts kept Arbuthnot as their "buy" rating, saying that Green was a "relatively stable and cash-generative group" and there was scope for improvement of earnings more if the progression of rail revenue continues.

Along with green light, first group - which will of the Great Western - sautéed franchise 11 335 p and bus and coach operator, Stagecoach, rose 4.9 percent 240.7.

Return on the highest level, arm Holdings traded laggards to leaders, who took a sharp fall earlier in the week. Microchip designer plunged Thursday as investors line venerate yet on an announcement to us rival Intel after the Bell. But yesterday, investors seem to determine that the "revolutionary" of Intel 3D technology was after all not so disturbing.

Analysts at Nomura said that it was a negative in the short term for the arm, but added that by the time Intel new product really works and running, the Cambridge-based company could already have moved to a more powerful chip design and once more be coming on the market. That helped advance ARM 9 567 percent.

A series of optimistic business updates also supported like it of Smith & Nephew (S & N), Diageo and Rexam as investors fall on a few glimmers of strength corporate.

Manufacturer of medical devices, S & N, ticked up to 20 and 680 p as he posted an increase in revenue in the first quarter set. Which prompted analysts at Investec to upgrade their rating "buy" from "hold", saying that the results showed S & N "is more than hold its own".

S & N was the subject of perennial repeated speculation, but these rumours have the end tweezers. The actions were sous-effectuées in the last months of rumours of bid fading, analysts Investec said that assessment was now seeking more attractive.

During this time, Diageo climbed p 18-12: £ 30 as the creator of Smirnoff vodka and third quarter sales unveiled the Johnnie Walker whisky which prevails over the estimates of analysts.

Rexam, which makes the boxes for Carlsberg and Red Bull, was tuppence 385.4% better than the first commercial after quarter was consistent with expectations.

However, it was more cautious about the prospects of its plastic packaging division. Rexam said he saw a low trade home products and personal care and make-up. The company added that the process of divesting its business closures - which makes the tops and lids for products such as beverage containers - is progressing well.

Among the second liners, signs of strong trading AZ electronic materials has helped the supplier of specialty chemicals Bond 8.6 p 288.9. But, as the highest level, oil producers have been disgraced with the premier oil retired 68 p to £ 18.22.

Lower market, rangemaster AGA - maker of the eponymous oven - cooled 9.75 to 111 p as he said orders were down in April from the same month last year, as consumers were become more cautious.


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U.S. rallies stock on the first day of trading in 2011

U.s. stock markets were aboard in 2011, where they finished in 2010. Photo: Corbis

The S & P 500 was terminated on day 1. 13pc 1271.87, so that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0. 11670.75 8pc. Nasdaq also joined the rally after shares Apple reached a record level.


The price of oil also increased, while investors have continued dumping of obligations of the Government which began in December.


As traders made their way to work with what remains of the heavy snowfall that Manhattan was last week, feeling was supported by the latest sign that a recovery in the u.s. manufacturing sector continues to gain traction.


Institute manufacturing supply management index rose to 57 in December 56.6 but gained more strongly and production orders measures. "Growth becomes more balanced and less dependent on the inventory, as consumption, business investment cycle and improve exports, said Nigel Gault, Chief u.s. economist at IHS Global Insight.


Among the actions best - performing on Bank of America, which closed up to 6 4pc after agreeing to settle certain complaints on mortgages allegedly defective. General Motors, who returned the stock market in November after the bailout 50 billion $, also finished first day of trading 2011 more after analysts Goldman Sachs recommended investors buy shares.


Investors know that emerging markets helped buoy sales and profits for the American company since the financial crisis, but the last six weeks have seen a reversal dramatic feeling towards the United States. Which is triggered largely by an improvement in data since the end of the summer, and the fee of $854bn Cup package passed by Congress in the last weeks in 2010.


Alongside second $600bn Federal Reserve tours to mitigate quantitative, average reductions of taxes on the u.s. economy is beginning to 2011 with an amount unprecedented stimulus - say critical will be eventually practice as the deficit grows more.


Investors, for the moment at least, can instead focus on the fact that S & P has notched 75pc of earnings from the time that the index closed first trading day the year higher.


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U.S. roadshow offers new investors Ocado

FTSE 250 close up 5.37 11082.17.

Fresnillo reaches 60% £ 15.68 Kazakhmys acquired 24 p to £ 15.11 and Antofagasta, has advanced from 23 percent to £ 14.36, as commodity prices lifted the mining sector - which was also supported by $3 (£ 1. 91bn) takeover Walter Western coal energy.

Gerard Lane, Coast capital equity analyst is bullish on the prospects for juveniles in the run up to Christmas: "taking into account the end of the increase in metal prices suggest that gains in the mining sector are likely to continue to be revised more and given its low value, we remain positive on the sector."

Manufacturer of catalysts Johnson Matthey has been another increase in merchandise recipient, award, with its closed shares higher at £ 19.26 59 p. Society, which is approximately one third of catalytic converters used in vehicles, was also helped by an increase in the target prices and Liberum Capital, which maintains its "buy" estimates the stock rating.

Broker raised its price target for £ 20 to 25 £ and surveying company its long-term autour 10pc over consensus earnings forecasts. Liberum Capital said that the change in the forecast is partly raised expectations profit for the activities of Johnson Matthey precious metals.

Other winners included Imperial Tobacco, which rose from 19% to £ 18.93 on a smaller than expected in Spanish tobacco tax break. Madrid said that the increase in tax would raise 780 million euros (£ 639 m) a year — less than many had expected - under a package of reforms, he hoped to calm investor concerns about its economy.

Far from classification, speculation has continued to grow on the future of Kesa Electricals, owner of street high retailer Comet, subsequent to the release note of UBS.

Earlier this week, investor activist Knight Vinke raised its stake in the Kesa to 7pc, fueling the suggestions that a break-up of the chain may be imminent. Shares in the company increased by 0.4 to 174 p as UBS Adam Cochrane analysts and Andrew Hughes have speculated that Knight Vinke "can attempt to generate a one-time return of capital". Might come across a sale and leaseback of 300 m € of owned French company, get rid of Comet or one of its emerging companies or increasing financial gear company, they said.

However, analysts had doubts as to whether Knight Vinke was likely to be sustainable. "Investment attracted investors speculation and interest, but we do not know what value long term shareholder can be created in advance of what day-to-day management is already taken."

Among the laggards, Group Man shares shed 9.6 to 279,1 p as Numis Securities cut its rating to "reduce" to "hold" in an otherwise neutral review of UK asset managers hedge fund manager.

Luxury retailer Burberry also falls in mode yesterday. The company is found among the losers after a short rally - saw shares jump on in two days - 10pc has ended.

Shares in the company withdrew from 20% to £ 10.79 despite the initiator cover Seymour Pierce society with a "buy" rating Kate Calvert, analyst at retail broker, said mark was "strengthened as modern decor, the trend should be the brand of luxury".

"Business model continues to change as management tackles many of the problems of distribution and moves to the retail-oriented business model." All the benefits of a large number of these actions are still to come on profit wise. »

The financial services sector is as unobtrusive as insurers weighed on the market. Old mutual fell 120.1 p 3.1, Aviva slipped 5.8 percent 379.5 so that the Standard Life closed 2.2 206 p.

Bucking trend has St. James place, grouped wealth manager. He jumped 14.9 to 268 p response delayed for an upturn in the broader insurance sector of the earlier this week.

Barrie horns, Panmure insurance analyst said: "the last days have seen insurers rebound as Irish debt fears allayed after confirmation that the exhibitions are relatively small and manageable." Instead of St James of missed shares rally earlier in the week but bounced back after leaving behind them relatively. "Director share dealing, the absence of Irish debt exposure and a general recovery in the mid-cap market has also helped.


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