Rise of markets despite the Libya and the Japan

Index Nikkei 225 Index of the Japan reference have increased more than 3pc on opening transactions, to 9,518.81 as the country that it has made progress in the stabilization of the reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power.

The FTSE 100 index increased 1. 3pc - 71 points at 5,789.65 - despite the launch of operation dawn Odyssey against in Libya Saturday.

The day after in America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 178.01 points or 1. 5pc to 12,036.53 after that traders simply geopolitical fears and instead congratulates $39bn (£ 23. 9bn) OPA of the AT & T for T-Mobile USA, which is the property of Deutsche Telekom. Success, the agreement would be the biggest deal in the world this year and plu German of a decade.

Telecoms, banks and miners led a gathering of the market in the world. The Japan markets had been closed for a holiday Monday, but the MSCI index of Asian stocks outside the Japan increased 1. 4pc in the news of successes at the Fukushima nuclear engineering.

The yen also weakened to 81.13 against the dollar following intervention by the Group of seven nations.

Calm on equity markets was not shopkeepers in petroleum reflected. Future Brent Crude rose $1.33 to $115.26 Monday with experts warning that the Allied Libya shares were likely to push prices even higher.

Francisco Blanch, head of research of the products at BofA Merrill Lynch in New York, believe that the price rally to provide as high as $ 140 per barrel on global concerns. Mr. Blanch said Bloomberg that Brent could hit this level in the three to four months. "We are going missing Libyan oil for some time", he said.

Commerzbank said: "a return at the beginning of the Libya for the world oil market is little probable, which should support prices long-term".

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Roll-out LSE overwhelmed by teething troubles

Execution only brokers like Selftrade yesterday warned that their sites Web wasn't showing fair price then that TD Waterhouse said a technical issue between the London Stock Exchange and one of its data providers has been affecting levels of loss of the stop on UK stocks. Selftrade and TD Waterhouse said they work with their intermediary and the London Stock Exchange to resolve the problem.

The London Stock Exchange migrated its faster system trading platform provided by Millennium, Monday. But the system hit by pips, with bidding closing Tuesday, the delayed by 42 seconds.

Market insiders suggested that current issues lies with data providers.

But the close data vendor, data sources interactive think that the problem arose from Millennium roll-out of the London Stock Exchange. They added that they work closely with customers to solve the problem.

A Thomson Reuters spokesperson said there were some specific issues related to Millennium LSE feeds and works with the London Stock Exchange to resolve.

A spokesman LSE said that they were satisfied with the migration, taking into account the size of the project, and the comments of the participants had so far been good.

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The upcoming week in business and economy: 21 Nov - 25 Nov

Results of the year:Diploma

Interim results:The foundation of Trust, Mitie Invista

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:CBI Conference

Meetings:Worldspreads Group (AGA)

------------------------------------

Tuesday, November 22

• Homeserve, nicknamed the "fifth emergency" because it offers insurance to national crises, update the city on his own trauma when it offers its interim results. Last month the company that sells products such as repair of boiler cover, said that it had suspended all telesales and marketing activities after a review by Deloitte identified problems with the way in which they were sold, sending its shares plunging.

Some linked sales activities began again, but there is still a possibility of an investigation of the Financial Services Authority (FSA).

Henry Carver, Peel Hunt analyst, said: "the key questions are: how much time will it take to absorb the impact of the recent actions, what will be the result of the control of the FSA to calls of"unsatisfactory"sales" until October 31 and what discount is appropriate for the action now? ""

• Investors will look for an update on how changes in meeting room and property issues hit results of the year at Mitchell & Butlers. The remains of pub without a Chief Executive and the insiders group admit majority shareholder, Joe Lewis has not efforts to take control of the company have received the operational part of the company. Last week, Bob Ivell, Executive Chairman, pushed by a restructuring of the management, but investors want to see a leader full-time in place as soon as possible. Numis analyst Doug Jack has forecast profits before taxes for the year down 11pc following the Elimination of the bars to 333, with sales as resembling 2 FP7 in the period.

Results of the year:Enterprise Inns, GW Pharmaceuticals, Mitchell & Butlers, Paragon Group of Companies

Interim results:Major group of yellow, Carlco, CML Microsystems, De La Rue, Ffastfill, Hamworthy, Halma, Homeserve, intermediate Capital Group, KCom, Telecom Plus, Torotrak

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:Public finance data

Meetings:International Ferro metals (AGA), Smiths Group (AGA)

------------------------------------

Wednesday, November 23

Johnson Matthey should describe how the global economic uncertainty is affecting manufacturers when it reports interim results this week. FTSE 100 produces about one third of catalytic converters in vehicles in the world and its performance is closely linked to the progression of motor vehicle manufacturers.

In June, Johnson Matthey warned of the rising prices of rare earth metals and a slowdown in car production caused by the Japanese earthquake. However, revenues increased 14pc 27pc and profits.

Analysts are forecasting this week that the company will post another increase of profits before tax. The consensus forecast for profits before exceptional pre tax for the six months to 30 September is £ 193.7 m, mainly in advance the £ 164.3 m in 2010.

Adam Collins to Liberum Capital said: "Q1 profit before tax to provisional summer management was 98 million pounds sterling and during the second quarter, a sequential improvement of profits there, we believe, supported by the closure of the plant of catalysts for Brussels in July and accelerating us class 8 truck production.".

Results of the year:Avon rubber, compass, Daily Mail & Trust General

Interim results:Assura, Hyder Consulting, Johnson Matthey, Mackay Securities, QinetiQ, Sepura, United Utilities

Trading Update:French Connection

Economics:Mortgage approvals MPC minutes, financial policy Committee, BBA

Meetings:Greatland gold (AGA), Geong International (AGA)

------------------------------------

Thursday, November 24

• There are a few retailers feeling the squeeze more products electrical stores of expensive and often unnecessary gadgets, and Dixons is no exception. However, investors hope that she can confirm that this is better than Comet, which has just been unloaded by Kesa, and Best Buy Europe, which is currently closed by Carphone Warehouse. Credit Switzerland predicted that sales as resembling the United Kingdom will be hosted a fall 10pc in the first quarter to a fall in FP7 for the whole of the first half. Consensus forecasts are for a loss before tax of first-half underlying in the range of 29 m £ 35 million pounds. For the same period last year, the company reported a loss before underlying tax of £ 6.9 m.

• Antofagasta, minor copper, gives a third quarter update. The market expected on how its Esperanza new mine at the Chile performs an update. In the first half of the year, Esperanza produced 29 300 tonnes of copper. The company will have to make good inroads in recent months to reach its target of producing up to 100,000 tons of copper on the site throughout the year, said analysts at the evolution of securities.

Results of the year:F. c. & income & Capital investment, future, Grainger, Phytopharm, Thomas Cook

Interim results:Casts, Dixons, helical Bar brewery, available detail, Pennant, Young & Co

Trading Update:Antofagasta

Economics:First revision of growth Q3 data of investment by the company, CBI industrial trends survey

Meetings:Finsbury food (AGA)

------------------------------------

Friday, November 25

Results of the year: Scottish Investment Trust.

Interim results:Fuller, Smith and Turner, Omega Diagnostics, Trent Severn

Trading Update:No announcement

Economics:No application

Meetings:Fusion IP (AGA)

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U.S. debt deadlock étincelles new fears of market

To the United States, the Commission join on the reduction of the deficit still works to cut trillions of dollars from the budget despite the breakdown of Thanksgiving.  Photo: GETTY

The impasse between the Republicans and the Democrats warring on efforts to find a $ 1.2 billion (£ 767bn) savings came in as the rose over $ 15 billion US national debt.

According to reports, the rival parties were preparing to announce today that they could not agree on the packaging of increases in taxes or cutting spending.

The deadline for an agreement of the so-called supercommittee was Wednesday, but the Commission was asked to put forward a plan at the end of today to give time to Congressional Budget Office to assess the real effects on the deficit.

Failure to strike an agreement would trigger automatic cuts of an equivalent amount in 2013 of spending for Defense and other government agencies.

The standoff is reminiscent of delays and arguments in July to raise U.S. debt ceiling. A agreement of last minute was not struck, the United States would have technically violated.

Disputes, was the first evidence of the vacuum of leadership that has frightened the United States and Europe markets.

Yusuf Heusen, a merchant of sale at IG Index, said: "News that the United States have hit a deadlock on recognizes budget cuts wishes to remind the traders of the last time legislators an impasse in the summer and the subsequent fallout that followed.".

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Rolls-Royce connect £ billion deal in China

The transaction will be one of the largest unveiled to David Cameron in China visit and comes after a difficult week for the engineering firm.

"The agreement is a contract to supply and will be spread over several years, as most contracts of Rolls-Royce," said initiated the delegation in Beijing.There are no details on Rolls-Royce industries could have been awarded the contract, or buyer .the China is a purchaser of products aviation, marine and energy company, and demand nearly 3,000 new aircraft over the next 10 to 15 years could create a market of (£ remained) of $65bn for Jet engines.

Royal Dutch Shell should also sign an agreement important Tuesday, which could come in the form of a production sharing contract with PetroChina jointly develop a shale gas project in the province of the Sichuan.Si two wells show potential, Shell could invest up to billion $ per year in the development of research, according to Simon Henry, his chief financial officer.

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The refuge of sovereign obligations

There are many investors lessons to learn from the financial crisis, but one of the most beneficial is world how interconnected markets are, particularly when it comes to finance. No country or market is isolated by events, even if they take place thousands of kilometers away from the other side of the world more.

And, three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the city fund managers still have nightmares. Mike Turner, the Manager of the Aberdeen Multi-Asset 578 million Fund of £, said: "my worst fear would be that the euro begins to break." It is not only have an impact on the European financial system, but the global financial system is highly integrated, and it will have consequences for growth throughout the world. »

Mr. Turner has already taken a defensive position with its investment portfolio and in all classes of assets including shares, bonds and alternatives, such as infrastructure funds managed by other fund managers, the United Kingdom is the exhibition of dominant countries.

But, here at home, the Manager of Aberdeen is still very cautious in its Outlook. Speaking on the last video of your money their hands, he explained: "things are very rough at the present time with regard to the macroeconomic situation." This is why we focus on performance, because we believe that the performance will be more and more a larger component of total return over time. In fact, reinvestment of dividends or compound finally cash flow up to, and the power of this preparation is important. »

One of the largest investments plays by Mr. Turner, in large part on the performance of prospective dividend, is managed by HSBC and 3i, infrastructure funds even if the Government reduced to date struck many planned projects "big ticket".

The Manager of Aberdeen also believes that the lack of government money could be a boon to the Fund as his. "Public finance are so strapped at this time that the Government consider more private finance source to fill this gap."

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Retrieve the markets of the Middle East on optimism the Egypt

Investors set aside concerns that violent demonstrations in the State of the gas-rich Algeria and other events at the Yemen could destabilize the region, or in any way threaten the oil reserves.

Stock Exchange remains the Egypt closed and will reopen this week with margins, but companies with large Egyptian interests que se aligned on other exchanges. Dana Dhabi gas jumped 4 5pc, whereas Air Arabia and group telecom Etisalat the two 0 9pc pink. EGX 100 index the Egypt fell 27pc more than two weeks before the Exchange was closed on January 30, but seems ready for a rebound.

Lars Christensen, head of emerging markets at Danske Bank, said invest in shares MIDEST is similar to European assets purchase is after the fall of the Berlin wall and could be rewarded for time if more open societies unleash economic potential. "We are very positive: the way things are playing is on the more positive point possible scenario." There is no civil war in Egypt and no hostile actions against other countries. »

Mr. Christensen, said the Egypt and the Tunisia are "star artists" in economic terms before their revolutions and should seek there where they left. "Our one of the concerns are that leaders across the region trying to buy their people instead of opening with reform", he says. Jordan has raised grants for food and Bahrain, where a Sunni elite governs the Shiite majority, is to give each family a bonus of £ 1,650 for food.

The Egypt managed to increase the $1 billion market debt Sunday but rigid price pay 11 68pc for 9 months invoices. Credit default swaps on the last Egypt debt traded at 322 points, below Hungary, the Portugal, Ireland or the Greece.

Finance Minister Egypt Samir Radwan, stated that the country is considering financial boost to restart growth, even though the budget deficit may hit 10pc of GDP this year, against 7 9pc initial estimates. He said "There is a need a recovery plan that is very closely linked to employment".

Mr Radwan said losses of agitation reached $6 MD, largely caused by tourist flight. Growth will drop to 5 8pc slot 4pc in 2011. The Egypt must create 700,000 jobs per year to absorb a "youth bulge" entering the labour market.

The main causes of the revolt in Egypt and Tunisia was new wealth is enriched elite but did not follow relatively quickly to the rest of the country, validating once more the theory of Tocqueville revolutions occur because increasing prosperity is biased, rather than because of poverty.

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Retailers fall on "cheap chic" H & m woes of the

Anne Critchlow, an analyst with Societe Generale, said the company, and industry "cheap chic" in General, cannot continue to absorb the costs without waking up prices. "The problem of rising raw material prices do disappear not within six next or 12 months,"she said.""

Next, who took the decision to increase its prices to account for the rising costs of cotton, was the largest faller in the FTSE 100, closure of 57 to 566 p.

Primark-owner associated british foods, which warned last week that cotton prices to increase its margins fell 12 percent to £ 10.87. Marks & Spencer fell 5.3 percent 360.7.

Tom Gadsby, matrix Analyst Group, has warned that the cheap chic fashion industry was left in a catch 22 situation. "Put up prices to try to find a gross margin and the risk of the company alienating clients who is accustomed to low price points." "Keep where they are and margins will continue to be depressed", he said.

European consumer confidence poll showed UK shoppers confidence plunged this month, and has a CBI retail sales figures also show a decrease in sales growth after a peak in the run-up to Christmas.

Despite the sadness of the retail, FTSE 100 disappointing U.S. employment figures and fresh fears on State of the Japanese economy closed just 4.13 points to 5,965.08, supported by strong gains in insurance and financial stocks.

Insurers took the top four spots in the index after late surge, as speculation mounted that they can escape the expensive capital requirements for banks.

"We strongly support that insurers are not the same as the banks," Andrew Moss, CEO, Aviva, up 17.6 to 242 p, told Reuters in Davos. "It's just that capital should be tested against actual economic risks in the business." We are supportive of who and what Solvency II is based on. But anything and that... would be illogical.

Among the old mutual on 1 p 5.7 insurers, Legal & General 3.3 112.8 percent, Prudential 20.5-704 p and Standard life ended the day higher 234,3 p 6.3.

Man Group, more important coverage of the World Fund in 292 p 8.2 Manager after announcing plans to sell structured products linked to GLG partners, assets in excess of $1 Manager it bought in October.

Man was also stimulated by an optimistic note of Nomura, who notes: the stock a "buy" with a target price of 380 p. The Japanese Investment Bank said that it has been upgraded from his point of view of the financial sector of "neutral" specialty "optimist" on the back of "positive financing potentials to improve volumes and upgrades". "."

BSkyB shares were also asks after the pay-TV company reported a 26pc profits jump 467 million pre-tax in £, 15pc sales to. £ 3 18bn. Actions added 5 to 762.5 p, valuing the company more than 5.3 £ 13.

Figures better than expected by analysts to raise their expectations for the amount that News Corporation shall provide control 60 9pc of heaven, it has not already. BSkyB Council rejected News Corp initial 700 p-a-part proposed offer this summer, but indicated that they would accept a submission to over 800 percent.

Lorna Tilbian from Numis, analyst said: "we continue to expect the agreement close to 800 p 850 p price range and see an increased risk that this could be rather than Q3 Q2".

Elsewhere in the sector, Inmarsat, SATCOM, 14 company rose p 665.5 strong earnings Wednesday, after S & P Equity Research raised its rating on the company to "hold" to "buy". It comes after LightSquared, a high-speed satellite U.S. start-up WINS regulatory approval to build a nationwide telephone US mobile service, which will include using a portion of the spectrum of the Inmarsat.

Heritage oil, which lead the slaughterers midcap Wednesday has done an about-face to Don 20.3 to 330,4 p Top FTSE 250 after that brokers, said 29pc Wednesday, falling on the news, company hit the gas instead of oil, has been done.

"A 30pc share price decline looks like a huge over-reaction," said Richard Griffith, the evolution of securities analyst.

However, other analysts were very skeptical about the prospects for extraction of gas of Kurdistan society, with Arthbothnot analyst change its "strong buy" rating to "sell".

At the other end of the table, Betfair lost to 67.5 at 918 p on ongoing concerns about its Italian operations. Exchange more bet in the world, whose shares were among the losers for the last three days, seems to have lost its challenge against Italian regulators pulled the plug on the Exchange.

We remain skeptical society will achieve growth, especially if the Italy is disabled, "analyst at Daniel Stewart has said in a note.

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Relaunch of the express Fed must keep rolling

The FTSE 100 is now trading at a level not seen since before the volatility of the stomach - the turbulence of the fall of 2008. Furthermore, the Indian market hit a record after rising only 5MC last week. Gold is on a tear, and the oil price moves towards $90 per barrel. Little importance belonging to the resurgence of the animal spirits.

What was most fascinating on the reaction of the market in announces a $600bn (£ 370bn) injection of funds last week in the American economy, however, the timing of the fireworks.The initial response Wednesday afternoon has been relatively muted - as if investors were shrug their shoulders a measure which has been in accordance with well - leaked .the reaction Thursday expectations bang was of another order completely - an explosion of back-to-the-races of risk appetite.

Trigger key shift in the market was, I believe, an article from the Washington Post, in which the President of the Fed dropped a clear indication that future levels of quantitative easing will be determined by the State of the economy, but by the level of the stock exchange. This is the so-called "Bernanke presented", whereby investors believe that if the worst the worst helicopter that the Fed will simply drop a load more newly printed dollar bills to bail the.

I think that what the Fed is fraught with danger in the long term, but in the short term, it would be folly to stand in front of the giant monetary. It is human nature after the kind of collapse to leave as soon as you are out of the water, we have seen two years yet. But I think that it would be premature because for two main reasons QE2 is likely to be much more effective that Skeptics suggest.

The first is that other banks will probably follow lead the Fed in order to prevent their own currencies to appreciate a weakened dollar. Japan will not tolerate a much stronger yen and UK will probably follow suit at the beginning of next year that reductions in expenses and VAT hike began to bite. This means that developed world interest rates will remain low for many longer than expected.

The second reason is that ve really encourage spending. Credit Switzerland calculates only a reduction in point a percentage performance of obligations actual shoot by 20pc, which in turn increases the propensity to consumers who see their wealth increase in net assets prices. It also reduces the opportunity cost of consumption for the fifth richest citizens save one-third of their income and account for 40pc of all expenses.Meanwhile, rising property prices raise the guarantee against existing loans, which encourages banks to provide credit more.

So I think QE2 work probably exactly as intended to reserve Federal américaine.Quoi becoming a source of concern is shooting up printing consequences which are either non-intentional or simply a matter of indifference to the United States.Monomaniaque attention the fed to solve economic problems United States danger is that others will inevitably be caught between two feux.Par example, savings with secured dollar currencies are required to maintain monetary policy is totally inappropriate for their growth.When a cost money that was appropriate for the Germany has been imposed on other countries in the euro area clearly is a repetition of the era of the arrow on the outskirts of Europe.Secondly, a large part of this new currency will simply leaks in emerging markets in full essor.Cela will not end well.

But there is a difference between knowing that a situation was untenable and think it will change anytime bientôt.Il is far too early to speak of bubbles in most markets benefiting from export America easy money policy.

Speaking of irrational exuberance has started in the middle of 1990, years before the bubble stock she éclaté.Tant economic recovery continues, assessments remain reasonable and inflation starts to spin out of control, it would be wrong to hop off the coast of the revival of Bernanke express.Ne fight the Fed.

tomrstevenson@fil.com

Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity Investment Managers.Les investment opinions are own

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Oil to over $ 105? Analysts make their predictions

Jeff Currie, Goldman, head of commodities research said Monday he expected oil to break through $ 105 a barrel sometime in 2011, citing as the main driver of supply constraints.

Goldman crystal ball proved accurate in the past, correctly predicted in 2005 prices may undergo a "super-spike" $ 105 a barrel. It was in an era where gross rated $ 55, and such prediction was well above the consensus.

But others agree last forecast Currie? Here's what some analysts have said in the last month.

UBS, said the market is still "feeling its way" in determining what should be the right oil prices. Despite these last rises, it is still $80-$90 a barrel is justified and raised its forecast of $ 79 to $ 80 December 2011 $85 per barrel. His most recent research, said:

We continue to see as well provided market but also note that prices are now based less on fundamentals and more sentiment and momentum within specific limits. We are seeing a floor of approximately $60 / bbl by OPEC and while we would step exclude prices hitting $100 a barrel, as some suggest, we doubt strongly sustainability of such a move.

Commerzbank mentioned the Alaska oil leak in its latest research and said: "" about 600 thousand barrels of oil per day are currently absent of supply, which could be reflected in a fall in us inventories accordingly."

However, it is satisfied that the price of oil will not significantly affected by the event, saying:

"As the General market sentiment remains optimistic and investor interest high, the oil prices should not come under significant pressure." Demand growth should facilitate slightly in the coming year, which implies for the oil price in the medium and long term that everything cannot grow forever. »

Barcap oil settle about $85 in 2011, with prizes for the year and forecast to reach $135 per barrel in "long term". He said in its latest research:

The upside surprise world oil demand has continued and included an additional dam lot more strong that Chinese oil demand and revision rising us oil consumption.

The combustion of the surplus stocks continue to its full swing, and U.S. commercial inventory surplus total higher than the average of five years is just 65.9 million barrels, levels lowest in eight months and about 46 million barrels below the peak reached in mid-September. So our forecast of price risks continue to build toward the head at the request of positive surprises continues.

Unlike some competitors, Morgan Stanley believes oil will test $100 barrier:

We anticipate that oil markets strengthen from this year, underlying increase in oil prices has the capacity to fallen reserve levels 4 Randle barrels per day at year-end (back to 2008 levels). We look so prices remain high in 2011, $100 tests.

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OPEC to raise output of the oil crisis deepens

Merchants in the Middle East.  Photo: BLOOMBERG

The fears were intensified by Libya attended a day of violent clashes between forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi and those trying to topple his dictatorship, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of oil in the regionactivists renewed calls for a day of protest later this week.

That helped propel Brent crude as high as $118.50 per barrel, while he withdrew more later close down 93 cents at $115.04 in volatile trade. American crude prices jumped briefly to a peak of intra-day of $107 per barrel.

The unexpected political changes sweeping in from the Middle East and North Africa caught unaware investors since it broke out earlier this year. Although an economy world improvement had sent oil higher in the last three months of last year, experts say that a run at about $120 per barrel at risk of serious recovery facing the wind.

"Events that develop in the Middle East to seize the attention of the market until that uncertainty is resolved," said Steven Weiting, Economist in New York at Citigroup.

Investors were betting on a quick resolution yesterday, as a flight to safer assets pushed the price of gold to a new record of $1,444.30.

Stock markets, in turn, retreated, with the FTSE 100 closing down 0 3pc inhabitants. The & S P 500 slipped almost 1pc in New York trading, while prices for the obligations of the Government of roses.

Mounted at the beginning of crude caused a day of headaches and of debate for those control a large part of global oil production. OPEC said members of the consultations on the opportunity to organize an emergency meeting. Major countries members, including the Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates United, Nigeria joined Saudi Arabia in the planning of production to fill the hole left by the Libya lift.

Saudi Arabia has raised output by 700,000 barrels per day, and the others are adding some 300,000 barrels per day. The international agency of energy considers the crisis in Libya cut the supply by approximately 1 m barrels per day.

The increase in prices is the greatest threat to the fragile economies, including Britain. "With fiscal tightening and food, the price of oil prices are a real threat to the United Kingdom" said Julian Jessop, Economist at capital economics. The Council expects this country around a recession yet, but predicted just 1. 5pc growth this year and next.

High oil prices have put the British Government under pressure to increase in the duty of the scrap fuel and Chancellor abandoned its wider tip that there could be a help for drivers in the Budget. "I'm looking, of course, the fuel duty," he said yesterday. "I see what I can do to help."

In United States, the White House is considering tapping the country strategic oil reserves if prices continue North. "We are looking at options." The question of reservations is one before us, said William Daly, Chief of staff of the President Barack Obama.

Last America operated its reserves, which hold about 727 m barrels per day, Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Analysts at Deutsche Bank reduce oil. Price of gasoline is close to a maximum of two years of $3.81 per gallon, according to AAA, an organization of U.S. automobile.

Stimulated by December tax reductions, consumers have been behind more recent performance of the US economy.

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Questor share Tip: give Prudential a miss for a more attractive alternative

You're a disgrace, you all. You, the Board of Directors made a decision and you are wrong. You all should do the honourable thing, "said an investor at the meeting, referring to the amount of 377 m £ of costs incurred in the process of deal."

Several months on and Mr. Thiam, nor its Chairman Harvey McGrath left the company. Instead, Mr. Thiam seemed focused on the future yesterday as Prudential reported 33pc jump all year profits to £ 2 07bn. The results were driven out by a strong performance through Asian Affairs of the group, which represented the form £ 1. 5bn worth of annual sales of Prudential.

Back in December 2009, Questor recommended investors banked profits made in Prudential. After all, the company shares had climbed 123pc to 643½p since they were last at the end to 288¾p in February of this year.

Since then, much water has passed under the bridge, particularly failure AIA deal, which saw the price of the shares of the Prudential hit a nadir of p 489,2 last July, shortly after the agreement has been discarded.

However, the Prudential shares have increased once again, climbing on 50pc 749 percent from their low. Calls to Mr. Thiam and Mr. McGrath to resign also fell away as investors recognize the strength of the company core, its Asian business supported by cash generative units in the United Kingdom and the United States.

Prudential has shown that he can make the right decisions in Asia by limiting its exposure to highly competitive markets such as Taiwan and the Japan, while investing capital in high-growth areas, such as the Malaysia. The company has not excluded to make acquisitions in the future, but is unlikely to ask shareholders for a question of pressed expensive rights of return after having met with strong opposition to the appeal of cash. 5bn £ 14 required to support the agreement of the AIA.

The sector of life UK has become a place attractive for investors in these last few months with the generation of cash and cost cutting programs to woo shareholders. Performance of shares Prudential 3 14pc and few would argue against the balance sheet of the company - bar AIA - providing great value for the shareholders before, during and after the financial crisis.

Despite this, Questor believes there are alternatives more attractive in the sector such as Aviva, with prizes of the action of the Prudential already reflecting most of the strengths of the company, close to the high five years of 811 pthat they have reached in 2007. Some questions are also on the future of Prudential UK and us, businesses and the threat of an AIA revitalized under the direction of Mark Tucker, making Prudential one avoid at present.

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Russian IPOs in London: success, planned, deferred

Rusagro - Russian pork and sugar producer has resurrected plans scrapped just below year last for individual flotation clothing. It fixed the price the offering at $ 14.50 to $ 18.25 per depositary receipt global Tuesday to raise $ 187 million of £.

Hydraulic HMS - the Russian manufacturer of pumps has been forced to cut prices and the extent of the plans to raise up to £ 407 m in London in February its float. It triggered instead of 225 million to £.

Retailereuroset - Russian mobile phone has been reported as as saying last week that it will proceed with an introduction in London Stock Exchange that could raise more than 625 m £.

Standard - Russian construction firm standard group began to pre-marketing a 300 m IPO £ London institutions, last week, according to Reuters.

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Rumors: a sustainable strategy for savvy investors

Despite sounding rockets as something Robert Robinson might say on Call My Bluff in the 1970s, rumours is an investment technique.

Derived from network of the ship, which the sailors would be together to share the latest gossip at sea, rumours refers to all qualitative information that better investors combine their scorecard with calculation to evaluate an investment. It's gossip and information of these in knowledge, but also on the personal observations and that investors escape and deporting the tyres.

Rumours was popularized by Philip Fisher, pioneers of modern investment techniques who wrote in the 1950s on the importance of the collection of information from all possible sources in a work on the analysis of the investment shares and Profits rare. Fisher inspired by Warren Buffett, and he has had an influence key on the Peter Lynch of fidelity, Director of the Magellan Fund between 1977 and 1990.

Fisher used rumors when he alighted on Motorola, at the time where a humble radio manufacturer. The value of his stake increased 20 times more than two decades. Lynch was too convinced of the importance of tapping into its own and other personal experiences companies, invested in: "whenever you shop at a store, eat a hamburger or purchase of new sunglasses that you get a valuable contribution." While browsing around you can see what sells best and what is not. "I was reminded of the importance of the rumours a week or there when I had the misfortune to fly with British Airways of Edinburgh, Gatwick. Like most travel war stories, he seems more fun that it fades into memory. At the time, I and my fellow travelers were fuming.

I did that with all the details though a quick search of Google find a host of articles fairly accurate describing the bizarre story of Captain attempting to flee before a red arrows display closes airport, a mobile phone would have fallen on to the tarmac of a window on the cockpit and a delay of four years and a half hour to find a replacement driver.

Rumors of this story is less to do with the actions of a driver in haste, but rather with the failure of BA to tell us at any point what was going on. to make any serious attempt to ease our discomfort or let us aircraft; We offer compensation or even only a good apology; or answer my questions aircraft and since on Twitter.

My attempt to communicate with BA using social networking shows how rumours is potentially a much more powerful force in the 21st century when Fisher and Lynch used in the 20th. Would get the choose a business that you are interested, it is a simple case today that he used when information is more closely supervised.

When I was in the research to see if BA had taken the trouble to respond to my tweets, I had the opportunity to see what everyone thinks of our flagship carrier. To be fair to BA, while I was not not only complain its service, there are many others describing the happy experiences of unexpected and similar upgrades. And this is the danger of an excessive dependence on the extrapolation of the experiences, what might be described as rumours of first-hand. I could feel the same way on the airline, but I would be unwise to stop of the investment on my only experience.

Other aspects of rumours - in addressing society suppliers, customers and competitors - remain an essential element of the 360-degree research which implies good active management of a portfolio of investments. In fact, it is one of the main differences between active and passive investment and a reason why active funds represent more than Tracker. In a market globalized really looking at a business at all levels is not free.

One of my colleagues is just China, where he spent a week trying to find out what was behind the wheel of the price today. He came to believe that a slowdown in China (to curb inflation in the country) could be bad news for the whole complex products and returned with a more nuanced view. The prospects for copper (it's good, there is a huge housing shortage) is very different from that of nickel (this is bad, the Chinese have obtained very hard to produce this very cheap). As the correct definition, not bluffing Show of Robert Robinson could have read: rumours - an essential part of the Toolkit for an investor.

tomrstevenson@fil.com

Tom Stevenson is a Director of Fidelity International investment. The views expressed are his own. Twitter: @ tomstevenson63

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Roubini tells Portugal to search the bailout as markets slide

The euro rose to approximately $1.33 on news of the agreement of the Ireland after negotiation to $1.3181 in Asian trading – its lowest level since September 21, fallen below $1.32 morning trade in Europe.

"The impact on the euro was stark," said Mitul Kotecha agricultural credit, with the single currency "failing to take its initial rally following the announcement.

Debt Portugal Spain and Ireland insurance costs continued to rise, while the cost of borrowing for the two Mediterranean countries also has stock augmenté.Marchés also fell across Europe with Ibex index the Spain more than 1pc.

"That really look is Spain, as fourth economy euro, greatest Greece, the Ireland area and Portugal put together, said Nicholas Smith, global Director of MF equity research in Tokyo.

"The question is whether it has the power of fire capital to rescue the Spain in way of the Greece and the Ireland.".

The Greece was the first recipient of a major EU - IMF rescue earlier this year.

European Union finance ministers seal agreement 85bn rescue € to end Ireland Sunday.

The Ireland paralyzed the banks have invested in an explosion of property who later had collapsed, will immediately receive €with but is subject to a "core strength", the Government stated in Dublin.

Whereas the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen insisted that he was "the best available deal" for the Ireland and its people, the Irish press comment was scathing.

"Sold on the swanny," the Irish Daily Mail, adding in an editorial in the heading: "we are without a safety net."

"They require emptying of the national bank, substantial money only we laissé.Nous we sold our birthright for a mess of soup right."

The Irish Government has agreed to contribute to. 5bn €17 loan facility will raid the national pension and other resources of national cash reserve fund.

The Irish Sun said agreement "phrases for generations of horrible debt" and 5 8pc sentenced average annual interest on loans as "fairly punitive."

"It is pure fantasy to think that the Irish people can afford to pay this Bill loi.Le taxpayer is currently dealing with pain, holders while bonds get off scot free .c ' is the scandal, pure scandal,"he said.""

Nevertheless, the agreement has been praised by international finance officials.

Governor of the Bank of France Christian Noyer stated that he had "no doubt" that the initiative could be successful, while IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that he has no doubt Ireland will meet his end of market.

United Kingdom, the Denmark and the Sweden, the yield countries provide bilateral loans totalling approximately €emissions.

In the framework of the agreement Ireland received an additional year, until 2015, to bring its deficit 32pc of domestic product 2010 gross return to 3pc allowed.

The Ireland coalition Government unveiled a four year plan last week marked reductions of 10 billion euros and the tax expense rises five billion euros, triggering protests mass at week's end.

Cowen said he expected Ireland pay average interest of 5.8% per annum on loans subject to market conditions.

"Without these loans the necessary tax increases and expenditure cuts would be much more severe, Cowen insisted.

EU Ministers also drew up rules for future rescues, under the terms of rigorous IMF, hitting private investors who purchase of government bonds.

They agreed that private sector to share the burden in the future go value after an existing euro area Emergency Fund of €440bn expires in 2013.

"Rules will be adapted for participation in case by case of creditors private, fully consistent with the policies of the IMF," said a statement.

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Rising UK Wholesale Gas Prices:

Over the past week a series of factors forced UK wholesale gas prices to go up.  There are rumours that Norway are planning to divert Europipe 1 supply to Germany, also unexpected operational problems from ConocoPhillip’s Theddlethorpe gas terminal, amongst other factors such as Belgian LNG tankers redirected to Japan, PX’s Teesside plant scheduled maintenance outage in September and Qatargas rolling maintenance over the coming months are all contributing in the rise in UK wholesale  gas prices.

Wholesale Gas Prices for Monday’s delivery rose 0.55 pence to 57.10 pence per therm and Tuesday’s gas traded 1.10 pence higher at 57.75 pence.

British gas for October’s delivery rose 0.70 pence to 65.50 pence, while November’s gas increased to 72.75 pence.

Another factor that weighted on UK gas contracts on the far end of the curve was the recession fears in America. Winter 2011/2012 gas contract’s firmed at 73.85 pence up 0.35 pence, while winter 2012/13 gas shed 0.60 pence at 74.60 pence, guided by falling crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, a letter leaked from the Prime Minister’s senior policy adviser on energy and environment. warned that current policies could add 30% to consumer energy bills by 2020. According to Ben Moxham’s letter wholesale gas prices will play a major role in these rises.

“If gas prices are low in 2020, the cost of policies promoting nuclear and renewables would be high, he says, and it would not be cost effective to pursue these policies.  If however, gas prices are high, reliance on nuclear power and renewables “could conceivably” be better for consumers.” – writes Mr. Moxham.

According the Mr. Moxham’s letter there are four policies that stand out as having the most significant impact on household and business energy bills: carbon pricing (both out own carbon price floor and the EU emissions trading scheme), the new Energy Company Obligation, our Electricity Market Reform package and the Renewables Obligation.

For further information: Telegraph | www.decc.gov

If you would like more information on our range of UK Wholesale Gas Prices or would simply like to find out how we could benefit your business, simply call our energy team today on 0870 710 7560 or request a call back at time to suit.

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Rolls-Royce slides that Airbus tells the airlines for the command check with Rolls-Royce engines

"After the failure of engine flying Qantas A380 QF32 on November 4, 2010, Airbus issued a telex operators all requesting operators the A380 with Rolls-Royce engines for the inspection of the power to ensure ongoing security operations, fleet" Airbus said in a statement Friday.

Rolls Royce, which fell 5MC yesterday after the incident, shares slipped a p 4 591 more 9pc Friday.

Part of the Trent 900 roller engine decays would have been in the air, on the Indonesia, forcing the flight to Sydney to an unscheduled landing Singapore.

Said rolls it "prudent to recommend that a number of basic motor precautionary checks is carried out" on the Trent 900, which is used to power command driven by Lufthansa, Qantas, Singapore Airlines.

Qantas grounded its fleet of six order pending security checks will take 24-48 heures.Singapore Airlines said delay all the A380 flights while checks are performed.Lufthansa has said that it will make inspections between flights.

Specialists of the Airbus team arrived at Singapore.He said that it will provide technical assistance to a French team of inspectors to the Australian authorities conducting the investigation.

Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, said airlines, powered by Engine Alliance, made by GE and Pratt & Whitney flight control aren't affectées.Air France and Emirates use Pratt & Whitney engine in their command.

Motor rollers have systems that monitor performance and information will be used in the investigation into what went wrong, the company said.

Motor coils have been under the spotlight recently, with Airbus great rival Boeing, delaying the delivery of its 787 Dreamliner, accusing a delay in the availability of Trent 1000 rouleaux.Plus early in the summer, a Trent 1000 engine jump on roller test site of Derby.

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Serco progress but market treads water

Will be Hedden, a trader selling IG index, said: "after touching a new"post-Lehman"high trade at the beginning, it seems that traders took another scope Christmas lunch and pulse fell the day trading."

Leading a heap featured winners was Serco, who checked 23½ to 597% as investors reassured by a giant outsourcing business update. The company reaffirmed orientation gains throughout the year.

Analysts Seymour Pierce kept their "buy" rating, saying that the actions of Serco should now retrieve. "Request refund cash provider unfortunate incident now seems to have passed into history." Serco has signed the memorandum of understanding with the British Government in which it is committed to offer savings on its existing contracts. Any of these are supposed to be material and by changes in scope and economies, will be the broker added.

GKN, a perennial M & A marmonnements, sky also home place in the standings with the manufacturer of car parts and aircraft donning 213.8 6.3 p.

But another player aerospace, BAE Systems has been on the slide. Goldman Sachs cut its price target to 290 p 300 p and reduced its estimate sales by 6pc for 2011 and 2012 5MC.

Broker said: "" stream of news in the coming year will remain very difficult: in our opinion, aggressive, preventive BAE downsizing suggests we could see United States defence budget cuts next year, a deterioration in terms of defence trade with United States and the United Kingdom harder new program-specific. ""

BAE fell 3.1 percent 330.4.

Joining BAE among the laggards was scanning of mining stocks as investors have lost their appetite for risk. Antofagasta and Fresnillo lost 32 p £ 15.28 and 30 percent to £ 15.25 respectively.

BP recovered some of its previous facilitate 6.55 470 percent as analysts of JP Morgan Cazenove threat brandished Exxon Mobil as a potential oil giant losses.

Return one of the leaders, capital firm 3i was on the us as analysts raised changing their position "add".

"After a lull and much uncertainty, wholesale agreement flow wheel spins again." Which should be positive feelings and forecast said the broker, who was 4.8 p 323.3 best.

Chunks of related retail stocks were also winners in appearance, the figures show that retail sales rose slightly in November. Burberry acquired 16% to £ 11.41, while 6.7 to 382 p Marks & Spencer and Associated British Foods - the owner of Primark - p 14 rose to £ 11.39. There are suggestions that clothing retailers may benefit from another software component plug-in cold that consumers buy winter woolies and supermarkets see seeding of consumers on the essential points.

Sports certainly goods retailer, Sports Direct International, apparently enjoying Arctic climate. The string displayed 40pc in favour of half increased and said that the winter weather has been a "net positive" - he sold 30,000 sleds already this winter. Sports Direct rose 150½p 4½.

But a stock benefiting not snow was listed on the aim Goals Soccer Centres. Operator centres football five-a-side informed the benefit of the whole would be less than previous expectations due to heavy snowfalls of £ 700,000. Nevertheless, he established 4 to 114 p as three Directors purchased shares. Analysts Peel hunt preserved their "buy" rating, saying: the effect of snow was the same as the amount they were represented and actions remained "extraordinarily undervalued.

Return to the main market, Mothercare, lowered ½ 609½p Goldman Sachs cut retailer maternity "neutral" to "buy" for evaluation purposes. Although Mothercare is in condition for growth overseas, analysts said it faced pressure at home.

The second level yesterday included Ashtead. Analysts singer said equipment rental company is one of its two stocks preferred in the sector. The broker has the other end was Lavendon with analysts saying that the two had attractive geographic exposure. Ashtead acquired 8.8 percent 166,1 and set 6-113½p Lavendon.

Also on the advance Northumbrian water that Goldman Sachs raised its "neutral" to "sell" rating. Northumbrian bubbled up 333½p 6.1.

Bottom of the market, health care stocks have been generating some interest. Technology company medical of tissue Regenix checked to 0.75 to 10,75 per new service NHS blood and transplant has initiated a pilot study to evaluate for technology entrepreneurship in the treatment of wounds do not heal. Prostrakan acquired 5.25 percent 91.25(1) as drug manufacturer has struck a distribution agreement with Canadian society, Paladin Labs.

Come to recent market HaloSource advanced addition, 8 p 166 as the drinking water technology company signed an agreement exclusive to provide water, disinfection of Indian society, Bajaj cartridges supply.

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Russia's Severstal plans $5bn North Gold London listing

Gold North aims to produce up to 1 m ounces of gold in 2013, an estimate ounces 589,000 in 2010 Photo: AP

Flotation will be the highest initial public offer value even for a gold company and the first of many gold seekers who seek to come to London this year.

The society aims to raise the most of $billion by floating a at least 25pc stake in a premium on the London main market. About 250 m $ will be disbursed to repay loans to existing shareholders, 300 million will be invested in projects to increase production and m 450 m $-500$ remaining will be returning to Severstal as profit on his investment.

"Russian origins we grew to become a miner of gold internationally diversified," said Nikolai Zelenski, CEO of Northern gold. ""

"We had interaction with investors, and we believe that we offer a very attractive value proposition: we offer exposure on the gold market, we offer a business that is completely unhedged, and we offer a company with very high rates of growth."

In just three years, Mr. Zelenski, a former consultant with McKinsey, built North of gold in a company with annual revenues of more than 500 m $, focusing on acquiring and turning around mines in distress in West Africa, the Kazakhstan and the Russia.

But some analysts said that even with the Golden Award of $1,400 per ounce of tests, investors may baulk facing valuing assets at 5 billion $ North but spent only 1 $5.3 buy and development, and which were valued at over $ 3 by Nomura analysts recently, in September.

"They look quite significantly increased assessment versus what they spent," said Maxim Matveev, mining analyst at ING in Moscow. "They don't have a very long history of exploitation of the assets they have learned." They have yet to prove that they can resolve any technical problems. »

"I think that investors will focus on assets are now," said Mr. Zelenski. "When we bought them they were in bad condition." We've brought into our team to turn of the asset, thus now that they generate significant cash flow and the resource base has been raised.

Gold North aims to produce 1 m ounces of gold in 2013, maximum 589,000 estimated 2010 ounces. There 8.9 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and about 23 million ounces of gold resources.

Credit Switzerland and Morgan Stanley are banks lead the accord with Trioka of dialogue, the Russian Bank and Canaccord Genuity taking supporting roles.

Severstal may be followed shortly by Glencore, trader international products and Robert Friedland, the contractor of the Canadian mining industry, which float companies Placer based on the Kazakhstan in London this year. Glencore's list Kazzinc and Ivanhoe Mines de Friedland is planned in the Altynalmas list.

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Return of the Gold Standard as world order unravels

 Gold surged to an all-time high of $1,594 an ounce in London, lifting silver to $39 in its train. Photo: AP

On one side of the Atlantic, the eurozone debt crisis has spread to the countries that may be too big to save - Spain and Italy - though RBS thinks a €3.5 trillion rescue fund would ensure survival of Europe's currency union.

On the other side, the recovery has sputtered out and the printing presses are being oiled again. Brinkmanship between the Congress and the White House over the US debt ceiling has compelled Moody's to warn of a "very small but rising risk" that the world's paramount power may default within two weeks. "The unthinkable is now thinkable," said Ross Norman, director of thebulliondesk.com.

Fed chair Ben Bernanke confessed to Congress that growth has failed to gain traction. "Deflationary risks might re-emerge, implying a need for additional policy support," he said.

The bar to QE3 - yet more bond purchases - is even lower than markets had thought. The new intake of hard-money men on the voting committee has not shifted Fed thinking, despite global anger at dollar debasement under QE2.

Fuelling the blaze, the emerging powers of Asia are almost all running uber-loose monetary policies. Most have negative real interest rates that push citizens out of bank accounts and into gold, or property. China is an arch-inflater. Prices are rising at 6.4pc, yet the one-year deposit rate is just 3.5pc. India's central bank is far behind the curve.

"It is very scary: the flight to gold is accelerating at a faster and faster speed," said Peter Hambro, chairman of Britain's biggest pure gold listing Petropavlovsk.

"One of the big US banks texted me today to say that if QE3 actually happens, we could see gold at $5,000 and silver at $1,000. I feel terribly sorry for anybody on fixed incomes tied to a fiat currency because they are not going to be able to buy things with that paper money."

China, Russia, Brazil, India, the Mid-East petro-powers have diversified their $7 trillion reserves into euros over the last decade to limit dollar exposure. As Europe's monetary union itself faces an existential crisis, there is no other safe-haven currency able to absorb the flows. The Swiss franc, Canada's loonie, the Aussie, and Korea's won are too small.

"There is no depth of market in these other currencies, so gold is the obvious play," said Neil Mellor from BNY Mellon. Western central banks (though not the US, Germany, or Italy) sold much of their gold at the depths of the bear market a decade ago. The Bank of England wins the booby prize for selling into the bottom at €254 an ounce on Gordon Brown's orders in 1999. But Russia, China, India, the Gulf states, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan have been buying.

China is coy, revealing purchases with a long delay. It has admitted to doubling its gold reserves to 1,054 tonnes or $54bn. This is just a tiny sliver of its $3.2 trillion reserves. China's Chamber of Commerce said this should be raised eightfold to 8,000 tonnes.

Xia Bin, an adviser to China's central bank, said in June that the country's reserve strategy needs an "urgent" overhaul. Instead of buying paper IOU's from a prostrate West, China should invest in strategic assets and accumulate gold by "buying the dips".

Step by step, the world is edging towards a revived Gold Standard as it becomes clearer that Japan and the West have reached debt saturation. World Bank chief Robert Zoellick said it was time to "consider employing gold as an international reference point." The Swiss parliament is to hold hearings on a parallel "Gold Franc". Utah has recognised gold as legal tender for tax payments.

A new Gold Standard would probably be based on a variant of the 'Bancor' proposed by Keynes in the late 1940s. This was a basket of 30 commodities intended to be less deflationary than pure gold, which had compounded in the Great Depression. The idea was revived by China's central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan two years ago as a way of curbing the "credit-based" excess.

Mr Bernanke himself was grilled by Congress this week on the role of gold. Why do people by gold? "As protection against of what we call tail risks: really, really bad outcomes," he replied.

Indeed.

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Switzerland abandons floating exchange rate in dramatic 'currency war' twist

The Swiss national bank (SNB) said it would “no longer tolerate” a euro rate below 1.20 francs. “The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. The massive overvaluation of the franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development,” it said.

The franc plummeted against all major currencies, falling 9pc against the euro as markets opened on Tuesday. The Swiss action will be studied closely in Norway, Singapore and above all Japan, where the yen has also rocketed to levels that threaten to blight exporters and tip the country into deep deflation.

“The market must fear this will lead to a sharp escalation in currency wars,” said David Bloom from HSBC. “Gold is the only safe haven asset that will not do QE, put in capital controls or complain.”

Mr Bloom said the Swiss move will exacerbate Europe’s debt crisis by widening the spreads betweeen core EMU and the periphery. “This is a risky policy for the Swiss,” he said.

Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon said the Swiss are restricting EMU debt purchases to German and French bonds, unlike earlier rounds of intervention. “The SNB is just as keen to have a safe-haven for its money as any other investors. It is recycling money leaving southern Europe into northern Europe. This is the darker message,” he said.

Japan has warned that it may intervene at any moment, especially if the US weakens the dollar by printing more money (QE). Michael Saunders from Citigroup said Britain may beat them to it. “We suspect the UK will be the next central bank to reach into the unconventional tool box, with a decision to restart QE on Thursday,” he said.

The Swiss economy is at risk of crippling damage appreciating from CHF 1.7 against the euro in 2008 to near parity in August. Currency hedges have protected Swiss firms until now but these contracts are expiring, leaving exporters nakedly exposed.

The SNB was forced to act once global recovery stalled and Europe’s debt crisis metastasized. The minimim floor is a copy of the bank’s desperate strategy - after all else failed - in October 1978. It did stabilize the franc at that time but at a very high cost.

The flood of liquidity from “unsterilized” interventions stored up all kinds of problems. “Inflation skyrocketed, reaching over 7pc in 1981,” said Paul Mackel from HSBC.

The SNB said in July that it had already lost 9.9bn francs from intervention this year. This is a political hot potato. There are already calls from the Swiss parliament for heads to roll.

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UK household squeeze at its worst for two years

 Rising fuel costs, the government's fiscal squeeze and faltering global growth are all eating deep into spending power.  Photo: PA

Markit's monthly survey of consumers shows that the triple blows of rising fuel costs, the government's fiscal squeeze and faltering global growth are all eating deep into spending power.

The household finance index (HFI) dropped sharply to 34.4 in July, with 38pc feeling worse off than a month ago compared to just 6pc seeing an improvement. "The latest reading signalled that the rate of deterioration was just as severe as the survey-record seen in March 2009," said Markit.

The index, which is watched closely as a leading indicator of consumer spending, has been released ahead of the publication of Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) figures tomorrow.

City economists fear that GDP growth may have fallen below zero in the second quarter, following a lacklustre winter.

According to Markit, credit card debt and unsecured lending saw the biggest jump in over a year despite falling incomes, suggesting that growing numbers are borrowing to keep afloat.

While the richest 20pc – with incomes over £57,751 – seem serenely unaffected, the poorer section of the population is deeply worried.

Households remain hopeful that their finances will start to improve again over the next 12 months, but the immediate picture appears to validate fears that the UK economy is hovering near recession.

“A negative figure is not out of the question,” said Simon Hayes from Barclays Capital.

The relapse is a bitter disappointment for the Government and will be grist to the mill for Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, who blames the Coalition for “reckless” budget cuts before the fragile economy is ready to take the strain.

“In the end, unless you’ve got more people in work paying taxes [and] the economy growing, it is very hard to get these deficits down. Growth is the key, that’s what Britain is badly, badly lacking now,” he told Sky News, calling for a temporary cut in VAT.

Mr Hayes said the authorities will come under further pressure to respond to these criticisms: either by a fresh blast of quantitative easing from the Bank of England or by switching to a “Plan B” at the Treasury to ease fiscal policy. “We think neither is likely and that policy-makers will sit out the current period of weakness”, he said.

The Coalition is on a fiscal knife-edge. The budget deficit has come down marginally from 10.4pc of GDP in 2009, to 9.6pc in 2010, to an estimated 8.3pc this year, but the country is still living massively beyond its means and is vulnerable to an abrupt loss of global confidence at any time – known as a “sudden stop” in market parlance – as nearly occurred before last year’s election.

“The only reason Britain has not been attacked is because the Coalition has held rock solid,” said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC.

Michael Saunders from Citigroup said Britain is condemned by global realities to wear its hairshirt, given that this year’s deficit is likely to overshoot the £122bn estimate of the Office of Budget Responsibility by £6bn.

“There is no scope for the Chancellor to ease up on the fiscal squeeze to support growth. The IMF’s forecast suggests the structural current balance [of the budget] may still be in deficit in 2015. It will be a long journey back to fiscal sustainability and the economy requires ongoing support from the weak pound,” he said.

“Even quite modest fiscal slippage would markedly erode the credibility gained by last year’s decisive fiscal action. The cost in terms of higher Gilt yields would probably outweigh any stimulus gained.”

The full cost of Britain’s love affair with debt over the past decade is finally hitting home.

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Saudi sovereign offers $36bn deals uprising in the middle of the admonition of oil prices could double.

Growing unrest in the region led experts to warn yesterday evening Brent crude oil prices may double to $111 a barrel mark it culminated yesterday if the crisis continues to spread to other countries in the Middle East.

Team products said Nomura to oil price risk storage in unexplored peaks in the coming weeks if chaos strikes Algeria Similarly, reduce the ability of world reserve thin margins because just before the first Gulf war.

Wednesday, Brent crude rose more than 5MC almost $ 112 a barrel, threat levels that could derail the global economy. It closed at $111.25.

"We could see $220 per barrel should Libya and in Algeria halt oil production." We may be underestimating this speculative activities were largely not present in 1990-1991 ", said Michael Lo, strategist, Bank oil."

The warning came ENI Italy announced the suspension of supplies by the Libya pipeline and a string of foreign companies have been evacuated staff and stop production. Libya holds oil large de l'Afrique reserves and produces 1.6 m barrels per day (b/d), mainly for export to Europe.

German driller Winthershall stopped its production of 100,000 b/d in Libya, whereas ENI is stopped at a string of sites, considerably reducing the flow of 550 b/d. A number of producers have declared "force majeure".

Barclays Capital said 1 m barrels of Libyan output is "locked in", with the other 0.6 m at risk. While Saudi Arabia may respond by raising the output, it takes time and its oil is not a substitute for "Sweet Crude the Libya".

The crisis escalating triggered falls more on the global stock exchanges. Wall Street was down 1pc in trade at the beginning and the FTSE 100 1. 2pc. The Dow Jones index has shed more than 300 points during the three days of 12,075.

Nomura said a closure in Libya and Algeria would reduce global 2.9 m b/d supply and reduce the ability of spare OPEC b/2.1 m d, comparable to levels at the beginning of the Gulf war and worse than during the 2008 spike when prices hit $147.

Two price shocks preceded by - or triggered - a recession in Europe and the United States. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency said the last rising already become prices a "serious risk" for the fragile economies of OECD block.

Some analysts fear the underlying image is worse than officially recognized doubting Saudi claims of alternative ample capacity. Wikileaks cable cited comments by geologist of Saudi Aramco oil giant that Kingdom reserves had been exaggerated by 40pc. A second cable cited U.S. diplomats asking if the Saudis "more empowered to make prices downwards for an extended period."

Report from Nomura, who consider the scenario catastrophic to a real crisis in the Gulf, said recent oil price shocks have shown a pattern of three floors, with a final blow-off price in the final phase. The current crisis is the first step.

Soaring oil prices create a dilemma for banks, nasty because they inflationary if caused by the robust global growth, but the deflationist if caused by a tightening of supply which acts as a tax on consumption of nations. Big oil exporters tend to save additional revenues for first price spikes, so the initial effect is draining global demand.

The current image contains elements of both, with an extra touch of liquidity created by the US Federal Reserve leaking into the global system and play havoc with commodity prices.

Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner told us Wednesday that the global economy is relatively stong to "manage" the oil shock, insisting on the fact that central banks "have extensive experience in the management of these things."

The European Central Bank (ECB) responded to skyrocketing oil in July 2008 by raising rates even if the Germany and the Italy were in recession at that time there. Nout Wellink, the Governor of Dutch of the ECB, said that this was an error policy.

Circumstances are different this time still also dark. ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet scored last month that the Bank will be "look at" the hump of prices in the short term, but the ECB rhetoric has since then harden. Fed doves will probably give more weight to the deflationary risks.

Jeremy Leggett, a leader of the task force industry UK peak oil and energy security, says the crisis Mid-East "shows the extreme fragility of the world system." People don't realize the proximity we a potential jump if that agitation reached critical mass in OPEC countries enough. "Governments must develop contingency plans and get cracking on proactive steps while we still have time", he says.

Energy & Utilities and positions vacant Oil & Gas jobs Telegraph

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Saudi shares hit 20 months down fears of contagion of protest

The Saudi benchmark lost 20pc since reaching its 2010 high, there are market bears territory Photo: Reuters

The Tadawul all indexes reference share fell 6 8pc 5,539 points, with Saudi Arabia Basic Industries, manufacturer of petrochemicals most, 7 8pc of landslide.

The index has lost 20pc since reaching its 2010 high, taking into bear market territory.

"Reports of certain arrests of a cleric caused gout." It is now a great fear of contagion in Saudi, said Haissam Arabi, Chief Executive and Manager Gulfmena Alternative Investments funds. "However, things are not all in clear fact that continuing the fall in stocks." There is no clear answer at this time. »

Saudi authorities detained a clerc of Shi'ite in the Eastern Province after he called for a constitutional monarchy and of ending corruption and discrimination, human rights activists said Reuters Tuesday.

Minority of Shi'ite of Arabia, believed be 10pc-15pc of the Saudi population, 18 m has long complained of discrimination, a charge denied by the authorities.

"It is sell all levels." There are several rumors out there and it seems that investors of all the class and type are drawing a line on the markets, says Nadi Bargouti, head of asset management at the Shu'a Capital in Dubai.

"No single person, without unique portfolio can move markets to this extent." It is a complete shock. »

On 17 February, the Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, Member of the Royal family of Saudi Arabia, said that the Kingdom may see protests unless King Abdullah proposes reforms, according to the BBC Arabic TV.

The King has increased spending on housing by riyals (£ 7bn) on 23 February. It has increased the budget of the social security of billion riyals, ordered the creation of 1 200 jobs and make a cost of living allowance 15pc permanent employees of the Government.

Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest exporter of oil and the largest Arab economy. Gross won 0 9pc $97.81 US per barrel to 8 pm in e-commerce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Securities and Exchange Commission to open derivatives

SEC filing plan will allow for a potential buyer request a price from a single or multiple vendors on regulated exchanges Photo: Corbis

The watchdog plan apply to certain swaps - or derivatives - in all fairness, interest rates and foreign exchange markets to cover risks and enable a potential buyer to request a price from a single or multiple vendors on regulated exchanges.

The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were affected by the Congress to reform the almost $ 600 billion (370 billion to £) market in derivative financial instruments currently traded largely in a so-called "over the counter" fashion. Regulators have already proposed certain swaps sold on what is called the "trade execution facilities" (SEFs), who would act as exchanges.

Lack of regulation the derivatives market has been awarded by many help us because of the financial crisis.

"Our goal is to provide a framework that allows market based security to continue to develop in a manner more transparent, more efficient and more competitive, said Mary Shapiro, Chair of the SEC.

Wall Street banks have expressed their concern about the manner in which reforms set out in the Dodd-Frank last summer law will apply, with greater transparency in the establishment of derivatives prices threatening to make it less profitable. However, the creation of new exchanges or SEFs should generate profits for those that apply to their execution, including ICAP based in London.

The SEC has shut down its recent proposals for a 60-day consultation.

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Saudi Arabia contagion raises the rout of the Gulf

My Mushaima said Wednesday that demonstrators had "the right to appeal using the Iran" If the Saudi military units to interfere in the fight. Tanks were seen crossing the roadway of 17 miles from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain on Tuesday.

"These were supposed to be Bahrain tanks, returning from Kuwait: this is not a credible story," said Siras Abi Ali, an expert in the Gulf at the level of the risk analysis Exclusive group.

He said that the result at Bahrain will set the model for events across the border. "There is no positive consequence of this for Saudi Arabia." If Bahrain offer of concessions, the Shia Saudi demand similar concessions. Are they cracking down, they could uplift. These people do not want to live in the House of Saud, "he says.

Saudi Arabia activists have called on Facebook for a "day of Rage" on 11 March, despite the lashing sentence to protest Street. An appeal similar to arms in Syria fact long fire because people were afraid, and the security forces the stifled in the egg. "We will closely monitor how many people are, and how far to go, their requirements, see", said Mr. Abi Ali.

Saudi King Abdullah has little latitude. Its own legitimacy comes from members of the Wahhabi clergy, who refuse any compromise with the Shiites. It is 87 and in poor health, raising the prospect of a fight of favourable looming succession within the line hard Minister Prince Nayef. It would crush any protest. The monarchy sought to save time by spending an additional amount of $36bn (£ 22bn) on welfare and wages, but political patronage may hit the wrong note at this stage.

Whatever hope in the West, Mr. Abi Ali said the Middle East is now in the vortex of several revolts to create turmoil for years and destabilize the supply of oil for a long time. "The Arab world will begin to behave like the Swiss," he said.

Slide in the Libya in the civil war has already reduced deliveries of oil by 1 m barrels per day (BPD), cutting in the margin of safety of the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the Saudis had covered the short-fall even if Saudi Arabia heavy oil is a poor substitute for the "sweet" of the Libya crude oil.

However, analysts suspect the Kingdom had already increased profitability 9 m before barrels of disturbances in Libya and did not add much net offer. There is a debate is raging about whether if the Saudi oil giant aramco can increase yields by 3 m bpd if necessary, as claimed. While the two new fields came flow adding 2 m bpd since the oil shock of 2008, "attrition" on old fields has offset this. "We believe that they are nearly at full capacity,"said an analyst."."

Global reserve capacity may in fact be less than 4 m bpd and perhaps as low as 2 m. during this time, the demand for oil from China alone increased by 850 m bpd last year.

HELIMA Croft at Barclays Capital said the longer Libya, the most damaging crisis continues it would supply to long term. Foreign companies have evacuated staff and may be reluctant to restart operations until the dust settles.

The rebel leaders of Benghazi are considering to investigate oil contracts, reserving the right to renegotiate the conditions in accordance with the "will of the people in the street".

Ms. Croft said foreign oil companies will not sink large sums of money in Libya until it is clear, what will emerge from the cauldron of tribal divisions. A plan for $billion of investments of oil by BP, Shell, Oasis and others over the next three years is in ruins. "With the disintegration of a stable political regime in Libya, we consider the major part of projects as being extremely unlikely to proceed at the time, or even not at all," she said.

Fatih Birol, the IEA Economist ' schief, warned that investment in fresh fields across the Middle East "may be delayed for years." The era of cheap oil is gone. »

The Libyan crisis presented an oil crunch which was likely to occur within three years, given the relentless decline in non-OPEC output in the North Sea and the Mexico.

While the world can cope with the loss of Libyan crude for now, the stakes will be rise sharply, if a country more succumbs and explode off the coast of graphics if the monarchies of the Gulf are losing their grip.

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